Why is Biden doing so bad with Latino's in Florida?

[Takket]

MTP just put up the poll numbers that FL is a dead heat as it was in 2016 but the big difference is that while Clinton did terrible with college educated whites, Biden is doing great, but that gain has been completely offset by how much worse he is doing with Latinos.

WHY???????????????

4 years of calling Latinos rapists and murderers and locking their kids in cages like they are rabid animals and.... this?????????? Florida would probably by OVER right now if Biden was getting the same support as Clinton.

2016 latinos in FL
Clinton 62%
drumpf 35%

2020
Biden 46%
drumpf 50%

white college grads
2016 drumpf won this group by 27%
2020 Biden leads by 3%

[rockfordfile]

1. I think in the end Biden will do good with the Latino vote.

[LisaL]

2. Is there something wrong with the numbers you posted?

Trump won white college grads by 27% but Biden only leads by 3%?

[PatSeg]

6. Yeah

That really doesn't sound right. Maybe not a very reliable poll.

[Rice4VP]

27. That's a 30% swing towards the Democrats

[onetexan]

46. Where did the numbers come from? Link? I don't trust them.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

3. Might have to do with Cubans in FL, who tend conservative.

[LisaL]

5. Yep, they tend to be conservative.

Still doesn't explain why Biden would do worse than Clinton (if that is true).

[empedocles]

7. 'Tend conservative' ???

[SharonAnn]

67. Yes, they trend Batista Fascist Mafia conservative

[empedocles]

71. You know of some of them?

[Bev54]

36. I also think they need to stop using the word socialism or socialist

The dem's plan is not socialism it is liberalism. Socialism is the communist country they come from and the word should never be used to describe the dems, the republicans are winning on labelling them. We need to start calling it by liberalism. Tell people to look it up in the dictionary.

[PatSeg]

4. Cuban Americans

tend to be very conservative and vote republican. They are very much opposed to anything they perceive as socialism because of their hatred of the communist rule in Cuba. They are very different from Puerto Ricans, Mexicans, or South Americans. Not all Latinos are the same.

[Me.]

8. Exactly

[LisaL]

9. But I guess they aren't opposed to wannabe dictators?

Strange.

[PatSeg]

17. Yes, very strange

People often can't see the forest for the trees. I think the generation that is so anti socialism is dying off. Younger people have no memory of Castro's Cuba and could eventually change this self defeating trend.

Of course, we've seen this trend before, choosing fascism over communism, not realizing they are both oppressive and autocratic. They just have different slogans.

[JHB]

19. As long as the dictator is "anticommunist"...

...they're fine with it. So are a lot of other conservatives.

They don't mind banana republics as long as they're not one of the ones picking bananas.

[DavidDvorkin]

24. They were fine with Batista.

[marble falls]

57. He looked great in a uniform.

[Polybius]

28. They hate left-wing dictators

Right-wing dictators, apparently not so much.

[ProfessorGAC]

47. Many Oldsters Were Perfectly Fine...

...with Batista.
So, it must matter what kind of dictator is in play for them to choose.
Clearly, they're fine with dictators.

[cwydro]

37. I lived in south Florida for years.

Cubans are mostly republicans; even my gay friends were.

[FakeNoose]

49. Cubans have a real -historic- reason for hating the Democrats

For the complete story, read about the "Bay of Pigs" incident that happened in 1961. This was very early in JFK's rookie year, it was a mistake that cost people's lives.

I won't go into details but you can find it on Wikipedia and elsewhere.

The Cuban immigrants who live in South Florida have never forgotten.

[PatSeg]

53. Yes, I know

but that was almost sixty years ago. Many Cuban Americans weren't even alive back then. They are voting republican out of habit, because their parents and grandparents did. Both parties have changed over the years. Time to judge candidates today on their own merits, not based on what was done decades ago by people who probably aren't even alive anymore.

I am hopeful that the younger generation will turn out more progressive and open minded.

[panader0]

54. I don't think Kennedy made a mistake.

I don't think he liked US military leaders making invasion plans behind his back.

[StarfishSaver]

60. They identify as white

And don't consider themselves in the same demographic as other Hispanics, especially those of color.

[PatSeg]

63. Yes, I believe that's true

[redstatebluegirl]

10. It isn't the Latinos as a whole, it is the Cuban Americans.

All the talk of Biden having a Socialist agenda is not helping with that group. With that said, the last thing we need is for Bernie to become really verbal and out there again, it will cost us Florida no doubt and it may cost us the election. Ads can be made overnight now. If Bernie starts talking about what Biden must do for him and his followers, it will show up in a "socialist agenda" ad overnight in Florida and other swing states.

Progressives need to realize they get nothing if we don't win, nothing. I love many of the progressive ideas, but we can't get a damn thing done if we don't win.

I know they won't do it, but an ad showing how much Trump is authoritarian like Castro might help in Florida.

[PatSeg]

20. I totally agree

I really wish Bernie would just be quiet if he can't be helpful. Every time he speaks, republicans just use it against Joe.

That is a great idea for an ad. Biden's campaign might not do it, but The Lincoln Project would.

[Vogon_Glory]

21. Authoritarian like Castro? Bad comparison. How about authoritarian like

Batista, Trujillo, or Perez Jimenez, all three of whom were right-wing dictators.

[ooky]

22. I also believe we need to run "Trump is an authoritarian" ads in Florida

and elsewhere, particularly in Cuban areas, but why wouldn't they do it? I see no downside to such an ad, and it's truth.

[Takket]

33. yeah that makes sense. the poll just lumped "lations" all together

[katmondoo]

11. The Cubans are not nice when doing business with other Americans

[empedocles]

12. The wealthy Cubans got to leave, and left their property, etc., behind - some superiority complexes

also

[appalachiablue]

13. Recent Op on the same topic, Biden & Hispanics, Sept. 11

https://democraticunderground.com/100214059993

[Sympthsical]

14. "Guess the Latinos didn't hear about your toast"

I love Dave Chappelle. He nails how white people think about minorities voting.

(Hearing about Bloomberg's $100 million in Florida, I'm cautiously optimistic about the state)

[Kind of Blue]

25. Ha! "This is the most shameful thing America has ever done!"

[qwlauren35]

30. That was painful to watch.

I can't even joke about it.

Gurl, no sense of humor - get over it....

Somehow I can't.

[LeftInTX]

68. Flav O Flav!

[empedocles]

15. Biden needs to drum up Cuban star power

[comradebillyboy]

16. They aren't all the same. Cubans are the most conservative

Hispanic constituency of the very diverse Hispanic community in the US. It's not Cuban children in cages. Cuban have special immigration status left over from the cold war. Hispanics don't all have the same background and culture.

[DFW]

18. Tim Kaine speaks fluent Spanish

I'm sure that helped to some extent. Neither of the current tickets has anyone who can do that.

With no substance behind it (think GW Bush), it doesn't count for much after the election, but during the campaign, I think it matters to those constituencies that it affects.

What would really be cool some day would be to have a presidential candidate who can say "Estoy con Ustedes (I'm with you)" to the Latinos and "Забивай єто, не со мной (Forget it, not with me)" to the Russian leader in his-or-her own voice.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

62. You know Clinton lost Florida, right?

Cuban-Americans voted for Trump then and they'll do it again.

[DFW]

69. I'm aware

However, "winning" by 49% over 47.8%, especially in Florida, is within the margin of Republican electoral fraud, so I count that as being still in play. Who knows what the real results were?

[OhioBlue]

23. I wonder if Qanon is having any influence

I would be curious to see if Qanon has infiltrated any FL centric, Latinx social media groups.

[calguy]

26. Don't put too much attachment to thoseqpolls

Polls are going to go up and down depending on how each poll asks their polling questions. Florida has always been close and will probably be close this time as well. No one is going to win by a large margin.
Most of the polls have shown Biden with a small lead. The best poll I I've seen for trump is a tie. Being slightly ahead is always better than slightly behind.
And remember the wild card coming into play: Mike Bloomberg has pledged to put at LEAST $100 million into defeating trump in Florida. Let that sink in. Trump has already blown more than $800 million. He doesn't have that much left. He can't possibly meet Bloomberg's spending in Florida without severely hurting what he has left to compete in other battleground areas.
No matter how you slice it, we have the advantage.

[former9thward]

39. Don't trust Bloomberg.

During the primaries he said, win or lose, he was going to keep all of his offices open for whoever was the candidate. He told his staff they had jobs until the end of the year.

As soon as he dropped out he closed the offices and fired his staff. The staff were allowed to keep their laptops in lieu of severance pay. He did not become rich by being honest or nice.

[Drb2072]

29. I'd question the poll

As has been stated above, Hispanics are not at all a homogeneous group in Florida. Nor are college educated whites. Given the size of these swings and comparing them to 2016 exit polls, I'd say this poll has some significant sampling bias. There is no way shifts of 30+ points have occured in either direction in 4 years.

For example, perhaps they oversampled Cubans and Venezuelans and massively undersampled Puerto Ricans. Since Hurricane Maria, there has been a massive influx of Puerto Ricans, especially in Central Florida. Most estimates put this number in the 2-300,000 permanent emigrations to Florida. While Puerto Ricans have lower historical turnout than Cubans - this influx of people will do nothing but assist Biden by sheer force of number.

Additionally, a college educated white voter from north of I-4 is a completely different demographic than one from south of I-4.

In other words, a south Florida heavy sample of both hispanics and college educated white would support these poll numbers.

The demographics in Florida are moving away from Republicans. DeSantis and Scott only won because it was a mid-term election - where young people don't turn out. 67% of voters in Florida 2018 were over the age of 50. This compares to 58% over 45 in 2016.

I really don't see Trump having any chance in Florida this year. Florida only continues to get younger and more diverse.

[Blue_true]

41. Very good post.

People keep pointing to Cuban-Americans. I read one insult against rich Cubans who had their property in Cuba taken away. It is all asinine nonsense for several reasons. First is that young Cubans are more likely to register as democrats than republicans, we just have to turn them out. Second, registration among Cuban-Americans is about equal for the parties in Florida, republicans have a slight lead, not an overwhelming one. Third, Florida has a big population of non-Cuban Hispanics throughout the state and also in South Florida.

You need to look into the details of how that poll was conducted. A lot of young people in Florida no longer use landline phones and many won’t answer calls from strange numbers. Any online poll is suspect at best given that people that want to “pack” the poll tend to readily answer.

[FloridaBlues]

31. He's been working them for past 3 yrs and has held numerous events in south fl esp

Since he claimed fl his home state.
Not surprised. But there's a high Caribbean vote here that doesn't get polled because they are not Latino. This could off set lower support from Latino voters.
Fl will be razor thin as usual.

[Blue_true]

42. Even Latino voters in Florida are much more diverse that ever.

I question the poll, some things in it seems way off.

[karynnj]

48. You would think the Caribbean voters might be excited by Kamala Harris on the ticket nt

[In It to Win It]

32. Cubans, Venezuelans, Nicaraguans, Colombians

He called Mexicans rapists. Florida's Latino community aren't Mexicans for the most part

Florida has a large Cuban and Cuban-descended population. Along with that, Florida has a "pockets" of Colombians, Venezuelans and Nicaraguans who tend to vote GOP, if the "pockets" vote at all.

For whatever reason, the "anti communist" label sticks to the GOP and because of that, they tend to vote GOP.

[Autumn]

34. Cubans are very conservative. It's also not their kids being put in cages.

[Klaralven]

35. We need to get the campaign focused on the economy, healthcare, and immigration - Latino top issues

[Takket]

38. i guess i'm not the only one that saw this poll this morning.....

Link to tweet

?s=20

[Wanderlust988]

40. Here's what I don't understand...why didn't Hillary win Florida then?

All I hear was how Hillary did so well with Latinos in Florida, but yet, she still lost the state! So how is Biden still holding his own in the state then? It must be a fallacy that Latinos are the end all-be all in the state. There are other demographics that Biden must be overperforming in.

[brooklynite]

43. You're talking about Mexican and Central American Latinos...

Florida requires acceptance by Cuban Latinos. And whenever Democrats look too supportive of CUba (think: Bernie Sanders and Cuban literacy programs) they risk losing those votes.

[radius777]

44. We're not messaging properly to Latinos.

They're not a culturally similar block like black or white Americans are, but are ethnically diverse and are typically concerned not only with their communities in America but also how our foreign policy relates to their home countries.

We can do better with Cubans and Venezuelans if we take a tougher stance on Castro and Maduro, and offer TPS to those individuals fleeing persecution. We need to explain that Dems stand for 1st world social democracy which is not the same thing as 3rd world socialism despite GOP scare tactics. There are rightwing Cubans who we'll never get, but others simply vote on this issue alone and want to see the Dems speak to it.

Florida: Deep-Dive on the Cuban Vote
2. Democrats have room to grow (and can’t afford not to)

Biden doesn’t need to win the Cuban vote, but the electoral math requires him to compete for increased support. Tens of thousands of votes are on the line in a state always decided by narrow margins. There is, after all, a big difference between finishing at 29% (where Dems were in late 2019), 35% (Obama’s 2008 number) or 41% (Clinton’s likely 2016 performance).

Again, at current Cuban support levels, Biden starts behind Clinton’s final overall margin in Florida.
Still, we estimate that up to 46% of Cuban-American voters in Florida are “gettable” for Joe Biden — this includes those who said they would vote for a Democrat, or are undecided, but also some voters who say they will vote for Trump but are negative toward Trump (or warm toward Democrats) on other measures.
Two audiences emerge as critical in growing Democrats’ vote:

1. US-Born Cuban-Americans. To find the Democratic base, you have to look at Cuban-Americans born in the US: in November they were -11 on Trump job approval and favored a Democratic nominee by a +7 margin. They also now outnumber the pre-1980 arrivals (aka the historic exile). To repeat: the electorate now includes more Cuban-American voters born in the United States than Cuban voters who arrived during the 50s-70s, even though the latter dominate the popular imagination. Democratic success in Florida starts with maximizing turnout and support in this cohort.
2. Cuban voters arrived in the 90s onward. For this cohort, we turn to a new section, because….

Puerto Ricans lean Dem but it requires that we message to them and get them to turn out.

Mexican-Americans have their own concerns and do tend to be more populist and pro-labor oriented, although some are culturally conservative. But as a group they are much more Dem than Cubans.

Alot of voters basically are sick of the standard Dem/Repub platforms and like hearing new things, and that is part of Trump and Bernie's appeal. We have to step out of the box and offer things directly to groups, not just a generic platform.

[Awsi Dooger]

52. Correct...the messaging is tardy and terrible

We took the Hispanic vote for granted and allowed Trump and the GOP to steadily pick away for 3+ years. They targeted Miami-Dade in particular. I've posted countess times that there are waves of GOP canvassers in my suburban Miami neighborhood all year long. Plus they send relentless letters and make phone calls. I knew damn well it was combined with social media emphasis toward Hispanics and recently I have read several articles about that.

Basically we kept looking back toward Russia, which was understandable and proper. But you've got to understand while you are fixated on the past the other side is looking toward 2020. That's what Republicans did with the Hispanic vote. It is not entirely true they were focused solely on their base. The base they were trying to expand is the Hispanic vote. It was right there to be had because 70-30 is not a logical split to begin with, and Hispanics are always loyal to the presidential incumbent. I realize nobody likes the big picture stuff as opposed to issue by issue, but more often than not the big picture generality is the explanation.

I have many Cuban friends and two Columbian friends. Most support Biden but they always tell me that other family members support Trump and a big reason for it is that the Spanish media is bombarded with pro-Trump and pro-GOP messaging, while the occasional Democratic spot is weak.

Nominating Andrew Gillum for governor allowed the Florida GOP and local Cubans to put a face on fear of a corrupt Democratic socialist. There is no way our losses among Cubans and Hispanics in Florida would be this high if Gillum had never been nominated.

[LeftInTX]

58. Well that sucks about Spanish language media

I don't have broadcast TV to peek

[uponit7771]

70. ***THIS !!!*** ☝🏾☝🏾☝🏾 We need a come to Jesus conversation after all is said and done about our

... messaging.

We're not good at it

[Celerity]

45. It is not just Cubans. Many South Americans also hate anything they see as too far left too.

Especially some Chileans, Argentines, Venezuelans, and Colombians, etc too. Florida has a shedload of SA's in it.

Many Latinx (Mexicans included) plus European Spanish, plus Portuguese (both European and Brazilian) also are favourable to the concept of el caudillo aka the strongman, who always have a cult of personality erected around them. Think Franco, Fulgencio Batista, Augusto Pinochet, Juan Perón, Pancho Villa, Rafael Trujillo, Alfredo Stroessner, António de Oliveira Salazar, etc etc.

Trump tries to fashion himself as 'El Caudillo'.

[LeftInTX]

50. Yes that whole strongman thing...I forgot about it

Machismo

The majority of Latinos are Mexican American and I know that whole machismo thing still exists. There is also this whole, "military service", "patriotism"...Even within our Democratic groups, it is the Latino group that plays the Star Spangled Banner before every single meeting, whereas the other groups just have the pledge. And the Latino group always shows a video with the Star Spangled Banner and will have a guest singer and they ALWAYS ask all the veterans to stand and they get a round of applause, every meeting.

[radius777]

61. Bingo, we underestimate Trump's strongman appeal

to alot of groups, as well as male voters. Trump is doing good with male Latinos and we see his outreach to black men. Trump's messaging on social media about Biden being 'diminished' is having some effect, and it's important we counter that, and knock Trump down a peg, because his image as a strongman itself has electoral value, outside of actual policies. Biden needs to pound him in the debates and expose him as a weak and ineffective man.

The 'socialism' scare stuff is about our failure to counter the GOP propaganda. We need to clarify that we stand for 1st world social democracy and not 3rd world socialism, and are against authoritarians (like Castro) of all kinds.

[unc70]

55. Abortion is a big issue among conservative Hispanics

[Willto]

56. It's baffling.....

how any minority group in America could support Trump no matter what their typical political views are. The man is a racist who if given absolute power wouldn't let any minorities from anywhere into this country because he thinks them inferior to white people.

If a candidate thought of me that way it would be a non starter. Whether we agreed or not on other issues like what the Fed should do with interest rates would never have a chance to come into play.

[ElementaryPenguin]

59. Not with "Latinos" - specifically with Cuban Americans.

Still blaming Democrats for the Bay of Pigs.

Many think they are honoring their grandparents or parents with GOP support.

[Xolodno]

64. Sad to say it...but Obama.

He normalized relations with Cuba....which was the right thing to do. And should have been done well before him, the Castro's would have been forced out of power before they bowed out of power.

The loss of land, wealth, power, etc. becomes ingrained in families with despite. I should know, both my wife and I come from families where we were forced out. A lot of bitterness there. She's second generation and I'm third, we hold no ill will, all that shit happened before we were born, but we are the exception, not the rule.

Hilary got the better side of that vote for one reason only. She was able to distance herself from that and Obama...which I believe, also hurt her in the end.

If you ask me, Florida is a money sink for any Democratic campaign. Yes were always close to grabbing the brass ring there...for decades. And we still see GOP candidates get elected to Governor, Senate, etc. Meanwhile, states like Arizona, are up for grabs.

[ansible]

65. The protests here destroying Catholic statues made a lot of latinos angry

Yes, you might not give a shit about the catholic church but many latinos do, destroying catholic statues like Junipero Serra's was really stupid.

[ecstatic]

66. Social media. Nt