538 - What If Trump Loses And Won't Leave? Worth a read....

[USALiberal]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-if-trump-loses-and-wont-leave/

For months now, President Trump has carefully planted the seed that he might not leave the office of the presidency willingly if he loses.

Whether it’s tweeting that the election should be delayed as it “will be the most inaccurate and fraudulent election in history” or that there will be widespread voter fraud because of the expected uptick in mail ballots due to the coronavirus, Trump seems intent on undermining the electoral process.

This, in turn, raises a rather thorny and unprecedented question: What happens if Trump won’t go? The answer is bleak. Experts tell me that the president actually has a lot of power at his discretion to contest the election, and some of the scenarios that could bring us to the edge of a crisis are actually very plausible.

Consider this one: It’s late on Election Day, and hundreds of thousands of votes in key battleground states still have to be counted due to the increased use of mail and absentee voting because of the pandemic. As a result, media outlets have largely avoided calling the race, but based on the votes that have been counted, Trump leads in enough states to reach at least 270 electoral votes, which would be enough to win the election if his election-night lead holds. Trump claims victory, but because Democrats were much more likely to vote by mail than Republicans, Joe Biden eventually pulls ahead because of the Democratic lean of the remaining votes — a phenomenon known as the “blue shift.”

More at link!

[pwb]

1. He will leave in a straight jacket.

This is not a possibility and does not deserve any attention. We have this thing called The Constitution that has a say in this matter.

[NewJeffCT]

2. because the Constitution has held up so well under Trump?

he's been violating emoluments every day in office & the lawsuits on it are moving at a glacial pace.

[lagomorph777]

4. Straight jacket, handcuffs, or body bag.

I'm OK with any of the options.

[Cirque du So-What]

3. If I lifted a 24-pack of Pepsi over my head 100 times a day

that would be soda pressing. And so is endless speculation over a string of ‘what if?’ Scenarios.

[Claustrum]

7. Hehe. I agree with you.

We could also do a "what if" Biden wins FL and Texas in election night and Trump has no ground to question any result at all.

[Cirque du So-What]

13. Where's the drama in that?

That doesn’t contribute to the overall anxiety level at all.

[phylny]

41. Thank you! Exactly. n/t

[Eid Ma Clack Shaw]

5. If TrumpPence trying to exclude a state goes to SCOTUS I believe Roberts and Gorsuch would

would be part of the majority rendering the decision to end their sordid tenure. Those guys are out and out right-wingers who I should think almost all of us here wish weren’t on the court, but they’re not Trumpian crooks and I suspect they’d be glad to see the back of him so the GOP can get back to dog-whistling rather than bludgeoning.

[fescuerescue]

12. Wouldn't that be ironic

Gorsuch coming to our aid.

[Eid Ma Clack Shaw]

20. I also wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't come to that & Trump sees his Republifriends abandon him

these people are craven cowards; they know he’s a moron, they know he’s full of shit but they’ll get rid of him in a second if they have adequate cover. Immediately after an election it’s clear he lost would be the perfect time; they can be all “well, I’m so sad that he lost, but I’m afraid he did” and immediately get started on preparing a candidate depraved enough to appeal to the MAGATS but with a veneer of respectability they’ll figure could win back the Never Trumpers and ‘independents’.

[Claustrum]

6. That "blue shift" happened in 2018 in some of the house races in California

A few was called for republicans on election night and later retracted because the mail-in votes skewed heavily to the Democrats. This effect will multiply because of COVID. Luckily, some states are counting mail-in ballots before election day. I wish all of them will do it just for this election because of COVID.

[Girard442]

8. Is this what an incipient civil war smells like?

[TreasonousBastard]

9. I forget the date by which the states are required to submit their totals and electors...

but at some point the results are known.

At which point he is no longer President, and can be physically removed by inauguration day. Kicking and screaming all the way.

[jimfields33]

11. December 14th.

Judges are going to be all over the place from both parties. I feel this is going to be awful, but maybe it will be fine and Biden wins election night. Best scenario because the mail in will just add to his win.

[exboyfil]

42. He is still President until Jan. 20th at noon

You are right that is the critical point. That slate of electors could still be contested as well (it has happened in the past).

[Drunken Irishman]

10. This article is riddled with awful constitutional takes.

Shame on 538 for pushing junk like this - and shame on you for pushing it here. This doomsday scenario, what they mapped out, is so woefully not correct and a terrible mix of junk poli-sci and fearmongering that I refuse to even refute it. But it's also exactly what Trump wants. The media to push a narrative that the election is going to be contested no matter what so that Democrats are dispirited enough to actually not vote, finding the process useless in the long run. You see it with this thread already with one poster conceding that because Trump dismisses the overrated, and often useless Emoluments Clause that he will easily dismiss the transition of power and no one will stop him!

What fucking message do you think that sends to potential voters? It tells them to not even vote because Trump will successfully seize power anyway.

What ridiculous trash.

[USALiberal]

14. LOL, lighten up, and send Nate your info on this topic. nt

[Drunken Irishman]

21. Yes. Lighten up on pushing narratives that basically say we're fucked no matter what happens.

That's a good takeaway, I guess. The article's entire premise is to say, using faculty logic, that even Biden wins, he loses! What kind of message do you think that sends to potential voters? No matter if you vote, the Republican legislature in Pennsylvania is just going to certify Trump as the winner of their electoral votes and blah blah blah...

Who wants to even partake in democracy if that's the outcome? This is exactly what Trump wants. Democrats to feel the outcome won't matter because he's going to seize power anyway. Then enough liberals don't vote and he legitimately wins because of it.

The person who wrote this article predicated everything on Florida from 2000 which is ridiculous because the scenario they gave with PA is not the same. Florida wasn't an issue of certifying an election where the counting was incomplete. It was about certifying an election where the recounting was halted. In their scenario, they're basically saying somehow not only will Trump be able to stop the full counting of ballots (not recounting, remember in 2000 with Florida, with all votes counted, the margin was tight enough to force an automatic recount, which began that whole ordeal), in a scenario where maybe, though not definitely, Trump leads with, say, 80% of the ballots counted (despite there being plenty of past experiences where states continued counting their final results well past election day before a winner was even declared)...but they're also saying the PA legislature will circumvent the actual full counting process and certify Trump the winner of their EV based on unofficial results that weren't technically even certified by the SoS of PA due to a level of uncounted outstanding (not even provisional) ballots? That has never happened in this nation's history and the PA legislature isnot stupid enough to support that move, especially if some of those outstanding ballots that aren't counted could theoretically impact their own races?

It's just foolish, needless scare tactics to terrify liberals into not wanting to vote.

[USALiberal]

22. Call Nate now! nt

[Drunken Irishman]

23. You posted it here.

Why do you want to scare monger? What do you have to gain from it? I legit want to know.

[USALiberal]

25. No Duer will freak out because of this except you! It will change nothing to DUers. Also.....

1000s more will see it on 538 than here, this is why you should reach out to Nate with your concern.
Wow, really silly post!

[Drunken Irishman]

27. lmao you already have a reply in this thread freaking out.

A poster literally said Trump will not leave and violence is inevitable. That's not freaking out? Whatever, bro. Continue pushing conspiracy theories and doomsday scenarios. It's clear you're hoping for chaos. Good luck with that.

[Thekaspervote]

34. +1000 lighten up is right. Putting in print every dark scenario? What good does that do?

[Disaffected]

40. Well said n/t

Hysterical blandishments serve no useful purpose.

[EndlessWire]

48. I think

that we have been telling people for months now to GOTV no matter what. I think that people know what to do, and just need to be reminded every once in awhile.

But, people also need to be alert to what this pRes is doing and probably planning. It's no good if suddenly Trump comes up a winner when nothing justifies that. People don't need to be treated like they're cream puffs that require special handling. They are adults, and they need to know and prepare for the possibility that this man will not leave office willingly.

Who would have thought that the entire GOP would support this monster? But, they are. Party Over Country is their motto. As long as their personal seats are threatened, they will continue to support his efforts to hold onto power.

Nobody wants strife. It is incorrect to protest that people are drama queens and such, when they are looking at what Trump is DOING and what he is SAYING.

And, NO, Trump will not be perp walked out the front door. If he has to be physically removed, they will do it quietly, hiding the fact that they did it. We have more respect for the office of President than to give in to our desire to throw eggs at him. As, we all want to do!

It is a terrible reality that this man and ALL his enablers do not recognize the Constitution and would dearly love to rewrite it in their favor. Each one is probably asking each other, can he really do THAT? If he does, how do I fit in there in support of that? That's all they care about--not who lived and died in support of that document, and all the rules of law that we once lived by.

I would love dearly to see us win by millions and millions of votes to kick him out, a clean and flawless transition, and the Orange Monster retires to Mar a Lago for the rest of his existence. But, at least I have had a chance to prepare my feelings, my thoughts, and what it will mean to my country if he does not concede the loss.

You people who make fun of those that have "currents of anxiety" underlying their fears--well, hell yes we do! Because we have eyes and ears and wonder what he will do. Since he doesn't care about the law, or the Constitution, using it to wipe his ass, as it were, we rightly wonder what he will think up to still claim the Presidency.

HE'S A DICTATOR. Would you be saying these things if that fact were a little more clear? He's a man who is ratcheting up his actions to fit what he feels. HE THINKS IT'S OKAY TO SHOOT DEAD A SUSPECT. This monster said that to the press. That's what he will do in a second term. He will run amok, and you can kiss the country goodbye.

I don't know about you, but I plan to VOTE in November. One vote against Trump et al. All Blue No Matter Who.

When you look back at the last four years, you can see a well executed assault and plan to install a dictator in America. It's not over yet.

What will you say when Trump sends our troops in support of Putin's plan to take over another country? "Well, it's just Belarus? It was just Ukraine?" You want our guys supporting Putin? Dying for Putin?

I'm sick of it...

[stopbush]

15. I expect tRump to declare victory at about noon on election day.

“Things are looking very good...lots of people are saying they voted for me...we’ve already uncovered massive cheating by the Dems...hate to tell them, but it looks like a landslide for me.”

Best ignore him.

[USALiberal]

17. No doubt he will, I am confident Biden's team has lawyers working on it already. nt

[Thekaspervote]

33. As in a team of 600 attorneys that Biden announced he has amassed to deal with any shenanigans

[USALiberal]

36. Wow, that is great! nt

[kentuck]

16. The White House is not the Presidency.

Let him live there.

Make him pay rent. Add it to his tax bill.

[USALiberal]

18. LOL, good idea!! nt

[Miguelito Loveless]

19. I do not see Trump leaving under any circumstances

because the GOP leadership will back him no matter what he does. They are totally corrupt, totally criminal, and know that jail awaits them if Trump loses.

Violence is inevitable.

[Drunken Irishman]

24. Might as well not vote then I guess.

[USALiberal]

26. LOL, now who is trying to impact voting! nt

[Drunken Irishman]

28. Glad no one is freaking out, though.

[Miguelito Loveless]

30. Stating the truth

is not "freaking out".

[Drunken Irishman]

37. This ain't truth. It's your dystopian fantasy.

[Miguelito Loveless]

46. I was told that same thing when I said that the "Patriot Act" would lead to

illegal spying on Americans, false arrests, and torture.

[Miguelito Loveless]

29. Why insert words in my mouth?

I said no such thing. My ballot is on my desk at home at this very moment, and I will hand deliver it to my local BoE.

I do not understand why people desire to believe that Trump will suddenly respect laws he has ignored his entire time in office, and that the GOP will "do the right thing" when they failed to do for the last two decades.

[Drunken Irishman]

35. Because specifical laws he has no control over.

Why hasn't he just appointed a new Supreme Court Justice regardless if there's a vacancy? Why hasn't he just announced he's canceling the election? Why hasn't he had Hillary jailed like he promised?

All these things have to be prevented by...something, right?

If you really think the only way Trump is going to leave is through a violent overthrowing and forced bloody removal, I'd keep that to yourself because that absolutely will discourage people from voting if you're openly telling them their vote won't really matter. Fueling this idea that Trump is some unstoppable force is exactly what he wants liberals and Democrats to think because that creates the narrative this election won't matter anyway and we've got plenty of evidence from past elections that show liberals are great at not voting if they believe it's not going to matter.

[Miguelito Loveless]

47. Ah, so best to tell them all will be well

Clap harder.

Got it.

[themaguffin]

49. I think he will try to stay, but I don't see how he does. Let's win an election first

[Cosmocat]

31. This post is more right than wrong

As others noted, he will declare victory, and as you noted the R party will likely back his play as much as it can.

The closer it is, the more ugly it will get.

Joe is going to have to win by more than a little for it to stick.

[Drunken Irishman]

38. It's nowhere being right.

Especially the point about the need to win by a lot. The poster is saying no matter what Trump is going to refuse and he will need to be removed violently. Well, shit, that's great imagery to have 50 days before the election.

[USALiberal]

45. Not going well for you! nt

[Thekaspervote]

32. Biden has already said if he doesn't leave the secret service will escort him out

I think they know what they are talking about!

[ooky]

39. Not only will he leave, he will leave before inauguration day.

I expect the coward to flee the country to avoid being arrested for his crimes against the state of New York.

[Greybnk48]

43. I've heard Trump leading initially called The Red Mirage,

or a fake lead for Trump, due to in-person vote counts coming in first. This term stresses the falseness of the Republican winning result, rather than a suspicious "blue shift" happing after the Republicans have apparently won.

I'm sticking with framing this as a "Red Mirage."

[Takket]

44. He's going to try something

All the more reason it is so important to GOTV and make sure Biden’s victory margin is significant enough to not leave the “winner” up to one state that can be contested.

As the speculative article points out a lot depends on other GOP members ignoring the law to help drumpf.

Any attempts to contest ballots and ballot counts SHOULD be dead on arrival at SCOTUS. we all hated bush v gore but the precedent set there Leaves drumpf with every little wiggle room to contest anything. SCOTUS said only the calendar matters and whatever issues are up in the air at the date the electors appointed are irrelevant. All counts and lawsuits end and the state has to certify electors.

I have little doubt drumpf will try to pull some bullshit, and it will gather lots of attention, but I doubt it will ever survive to the extent of things happening like states electors being thrown out.