FAU Florida Poll Shows Tied Race

[liskddksil]

Biden 50%
Trump 50%

A new FAU BEPI pre-election poll of likely Florida voters has President Trump tied with his Democratic opponent former Vice-President Joe Biden at 50% each. This is a bounce back for Trump who in the May FAU poll had fallen 6 points behind Biden 53% to 47% after leading in March 51% to 49%.

https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2020/florida-2020-its-the-economy.php

[MontanaMama]

1. Rick Wilson, former GOP strategist,

Lincoln Project founder and FL resident has said repeatedly that if/when Biden is up by 10 points in FL, the race will actually then be tied. He said he wouldn’t be comfortable with a Biden margin even at 14 points...FL is that predictably red. That said, he acknowledges that it is changing. He speaks about it often on his podcast with Molly Jong-Fast...which I recommend.

[liskddksil]

2. This is why I have long considered Texas the more favorable of the 2 to flip this cycle

All the Demographics are trending our way there while Florida continues to deteriorate.

[MontanaMama]

3. I'm no expert but I believe you're spot on.

“Deterioration” is an excellent way to describe FL politics, unfortunately.

[TwilightZone]

4. Texas has a similar problem.

Latino turnout (and turnout everywhere on the left, for that matter) continues to be significantly below national levels, though we're working on it. The demographics are becoming more favorable, but until we figure out how to deal with the turnout issue, they're not helping enough.

Florida is much more likely to flip in 2020 than Texas.

[Polybius]

6. Obama won Florida twice though

In 2000, it was basically tied. 2004 is the only time in that stretch that a Republican won it by more than 1.2 points. To me, the state isn't really Red or Blue Presidentially (is that a word?). It's very much mixed in the past 20 years.

[Drunken Irishman]

12. Florida is going to be close regardless.

I had hoped Biden somehow figured out how to win the state by a comfortable margin but that seems to be wishful thinking. It's going to be won or lost by 1-3 points, and likely even closer than that.

It's why Biden CAN'T count on Florida because it does feel like a coin toss state.

[RhodeIslandOne]

18. It's also rigged

I'm not counting Florida on any of my boards.

[JI7]

29. Charlie Crist was Governor in 2008 and did everything he could to make sure

the voting system was fair and accurate.

[rso]

5. Florida

Florida may be red, but don’t forget that Trump beat Hillary by only 1% and Obama won Florida both times.

[Polybius]

7. Yup, and 2000 was a virtual tie as well

In 1996 Dole lost big there too. 2004 is the only time a Republican won there by 5 or so points in that 24 year stretch.

[rockfordfile]

11. FL is a purple state

[BlueStater]

23. Certainly hasn't felt like that in the last ten years.

Obama won it in 2012 and Nelson beat Mack in the Senate race that same year...annnnnnnd that’s it as far as major Democratic victories.

[Thekaspervote]

8. Just remember, we don't need FL to win! Never know maybe the 100 mil Bloomberg is going

To spend to flip FL will work. hope they hurry up

[liskddksil]

9. At this point we need one of TX or FL to have us in the lead on election night to prevent Trump from

declaring victory and crying fraud if the lead gets flipped on mail in ballots. The rust-belt states will all show Biden losing on election night, since they can't start counting mail in votes until election day.

[greenjar_01]

13. Counterpoint

That's total bullshit.

[liskddksil]

14. Evidence? I don't win arguments by name-calling and neither should you nt

[greenjar_01]

16. I didn't name call

I characterized your speculative nonsense.

[SharonClark]

17. That's total bullshit.

[greenjar_01]

19. Nevertheless

[liskddksil]

21. Keep digging nt

[greenjar_01]

22. Keep posting garbage

[liskddksil]

24. Reported. Have a nice day nt

[greenjar_01]

25. Notice that you didn't defend your position though

I stand by my characterization OF YOUR CLAIM.

[liskddksil]

26. Why should I respond? You never bothered to post an actual argument nt

[greenjar_01]

28. Oh, I did

I said that your claim was speculative nonsense. Feel free to support it at any time. Of course, you can't, because it is a silly prediction about what will happen on election night for which you have no basis or foundation. In other words, bullshit. So, there you go.

[liskddksil]

30. Riiiiighttttt.....

[greenjar_01]

31. Good answer

You going with the Mendelsohn stuff or not?

[Drunken Irishman]

15. Biden will be leading because they start counting ballots early in the morning.

Absolutely what you say is not true. Most those rust belt states will begin counting mail-in ballots the moment polls open. They may not get all of them by the time in-person votes are also counted after polls close but there will be a sizable lead for Biden. This whole idea of Trump leading on election night is a lie.

[liskddksil]

27. Since you posted a substantive response, more than I can say about the poster above who

decided to enter the gutter, I'll defer to the data firm Hawkfish:

https://www.axios.com/bloomberg-group-trump-election-night-scenarios-a554e8f5-9702-437e-ae75-d2be478d42bb.html

[Drunken Irishman]

32. Yes and they're wrong.

See this:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-red-mirage-election-night-victory-is-unlikely-political-scientists-say/ar-BB191vLR?li=BBnb7Kz

Most states will have started counting mail-in ballots either days or hours before polls officially close. It's possible 75%+ of mail-in ballots in, say, PA have been counted by the time their polls close as they'll be able to start counting the moment polls open there.

[greenjar_01]

33. Oh boy

Some choice passages

"There is a big market in this country for stoking anxiety about the possibility that Trump might somehow pull this election out of the hat, and I regard this report as pandering to that anxiety, and nothing more," Stewart said.

Ooooo. Sounds familiar.

"There's one bit of good news that has gotten lost in the panic over a red mirage: six of the key states that will decide the election also require that absentee ballots arrive by election day," the Democratic strategist told Newsweek.

"That means all of these states will have their ballots in hand on election day, and if they can get the resources they need to count them that day, we could know the results election night. The six states are Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Wait. Aren't those the....Rustbelt States....

[Drunken Irishman]

34. And those states will have hours to count those ballots, fortunately.

Pennsylvania can start counting mail-in ballots the moment polls open. That gives them like a 12 hour head start on mail-in ballots before they even begin the process of counting same-day ballots.

It seems pretty clear that Biden will start the night with a significant lead in those states.

[greenjar_01]

35. And they have Democratic governors and diligent election officials throughout the state

(yes, sorry, even in those red counties) who are incentivized not to be the center of a Florida 2000 storm.

They will count the votes, it will go smoothly, and these disaster scenarios are a super weird form of wishful thinking for people who like disasters.

[Drunken Irishman]

36. Agreed.

[rockfordfile]

10. It's gonna be a close race in FL

Ground game helps big in FL

[andym]

20. Why Bloomberg''s targeted $100M looms large

Especially need to target Cubans and other moderate latinos.