What red state could Biden win surprisingly?

[imanamerican63]

I would love to see him win several of them.

[still_one]

1. I think it would most likely be in red states that have been hurt the most by the pandemic

[Botany]

3. gusses

Texas, OH, S.C., Florida, Alabama and the Dakotas

[still_one]

7. Florida I hope!!!

[Botany]

11. I forgot Georgia and North Carolina.

We need to win landslides nationwide and we all need to vote early and on paper to
take those electronic voting machines and central tabulators out of the equation.


Tennessee, Kentucky ('cept if the state flips on McConnell), West Virginia, Oklahoma,
and Arkansas are gone.

[still_one]

12. +++

[theophilus]

32. Seems that Arkansas might actually have a chance. n/t

[Botany]

35. Arkansas is 77% White .... according to Wiki ...that seems to be a bit high to me but that would

... make flipping it blue pretty tough.

South Carolina is 35% black and 10 or 11% hispanic (and growing) so that
is the southern state that might flip first.

[aaaaaa5a]

2. Georgia, Texas, and maybe Ohio. NT

[ok_cpu]

29. We are working really hard in OH to make it so! n/t

[aaaaaa5a]

36. Please keep up the good work!

America is counting on you!👍

[Amishman]

4. I see the edge case states being NC and Ohio

I just don't see Texas or Georgia swinging yet

[Meadowoak]

5. Kentucky.

[not_the_one]

16. And flush McTurtle along with Herr turdus maximus.

My hatred for Moscow Mitch is only .0000001% less than for the turd.

The turd has been screwing us for 4 years. The China man, for over 30.

They should be put in adjoining cells. OR hanged, shot, or electrocuted simultaneously.

[Wounded Bear]

6. Iowa...indications are that they are growing tired of the Repub crazy.

My super suprise is Utah. Mormons don't really like him, and Romney can't go anywhere until Trump is out of the way.

Texas would be really nice, and would seal the deal. TX, much like FL is a state Trump can't win without but that Biden can.

[LisaL]

8. Arizona.

NT

[beachbumbob]

9. its very possible to see 4 or 5 or more redstate wins

and will go back to turnout.

[greenjar_01]

10. People forget, it was shocking when Biden won Texas, Minnesota, and Massachusetts on Super Tuesday

Bernie was leading in the polls in each of those states and was presumed as the heavy favorite.

Biden wrapping up those presumed Bernie states (by large numbers in Minnesota and Massachusetts) is really what sealed the primary. Biden was expected to do well in the Super Tuesday southern states other than Texas.

The conclusion that none of our great political seers at Politico, the Hill, or Axios seem to have glommed on to is that recent history shows much more evidence of secret Biden voters than secret Trump voters.

[FakeNoose]

23. We can't go by the primary vote counts

In too many of the close/red states, this happened: unknown numbers of Repukes voted for Sanders in the primary because they wanted to see Biden "lose" the primary. Well those Bernie voters have no intention of voting for Sanders or Biden in the general election. They were just causing trouble for the Democratic Party.

The same strategy worked so well in 2016, now they do it on a regular basis. In my opinion, they've taken this so far that they've "joined" our Party just to mess up our primaries. States don't keep track of "Dem" voters who cross over and vote "GOP" in the general election. It only makes a difference in the so-called swing states anyway.

[Celerity]

31. You are using revisionist history. Sanders was never the heavy favourite

in MN and once Klobuchar dropped out and enforced Biden it was over. Same for Massachusetts, where he was neck in neck towards the end with Warren, and Warren dominated before that, before she started losing in other states. Finally, you are wrong about Texas as well, where Biden had huge leads for ages, the lost it when he started losing states then came back after SC saved him and started the bandwagon effect.

There was no monster Bernie who was slayed by hidden Biden votes. The rest of the party simply settled behind Biden once he showed he could win. Sanders was never remotely a threat to win the nomination.

The superdelegates would never commit electoral suicide by nominating him. His entire campaign was based on false assumptions and delusions. He lost decades ago when he chose to falsely self-label as a democratic socialist when he is simply a bog standard social democrat. Massive difference between the two. Only in reactionary, poorly educated America is there confusion over the terms. The reactionary US will never elect anyone who claims to be a socialist, which for 100 million plus morons equates instantly to commie. Hell maybe 200 million plus.

[LonePirate]

13. Montana or Alaska

[rampartc]

14. optimism is ok but

biden will not be winning texas, la, arkansa, ms, al, tenn, fl, ga, sc, nc, or ky.

so that leaves as possible az, va, nh, .

i'm just hoping that the elections in ca, or, and wa are not compromised by the fires.

[Celerity]

34. I expect major seat stealing attempts in CA House races by

the Rethugs. It is going to be a shitshow. CA is going to accept ballots for up to 17 days after the election, as long as they were postmarked in time.

I also agree with you on the overconfidence. Trump will more than likely have a substantial lead on election night in most states just based of same day voter dominance. He will then claim victory and go to war to try and stop or completely delegitimise all the uncounted mail-in ballots. It is going to be a horrific nightmare and quite likely will turn violent across the nation.

I do not trust any of the Rethug states to not fuck with the vote tallies and ballots either. Same for swing states. So many seem oblivious to the tsunami of shit that is coming from every level and angle.

[cbdo2007]

15. Missouri - even in red areas like mine people are sick of Trump's crap

and seeing way more Biden signs around than Trump signs. There were NO Clinton signs in my neighborhood in 2016 but we've already got maybe a dozen Biden signs and only a couple of Trump signs. Sure it's anecdotal but it is *something* at least.

Also, Obama only lost MO by about 4,000 votes in 2008 so it's possible with enough voter turnout and people being sick of Trumper.

[lastlib]

37. I don't see MO flipping, TBH

Here in eastern Jackson County, one of the bluest counties in the state, the tRump insanity is pretty doggone strong. I expect it's worse deeper into the state where the gun culture is rampant. KKK has a lot of influence in the southern part, and I don't see much sign of that weakening, and the urban blue areas don't seem to have the weight to counterbalance it. I just can't see it happening, but I hope I'm pleasantly surprised.

[Norbert]

17. It would be nice to see South Carolina flip

Maybe Niki Haley going full trump might push SC toward blue.

[Initech]

18. Texas!!!!

Though I would love to see him flip Tennessee and Florida as well!

[Midnight Writer]

19. I think the fix is in for the GOP in Georgia. I hope but doubt Democratic voters can overcome it.

[Demsrule86]

20. Nebraska

Might go blue.

[TheFarseer]

25. No way

Maybe 2nd District but I am even doubtful of that. Half the people here think Biden =Stalin. I try to convince them how insane that is to no avail.

[imanamerican63]

33. Nope! I live on Omaha!

[Celerity]

21. His two best shots are AZ and NC. OH and IA are a bit harder.

FL is not really a red state per se in my book, iys more purple, but Biden is going to struggle there unless he radically distances himself from Bernie and the farther left. It is not just Cubans at all who hate socialism (even though it is a lie to label any Dem as a socialist, the lies work). FL is full of South Americans from Argentina, Venezuela, Colombia,
Chile, etc who hate the far left too. Joe is getting killed with FL Hispanics versus what Clinton did. She won them by 27 points, Biden is only up 4 points with them v Rump. A large white voter shift to Biden is all that is keeping him in the game there.

[Demsrule86]

26. Biden is up two points in Ohio even as we speak. Biden already won Ohio twice.

[Celerity]

28. I expect full shenanigans there. Absolutely not counting on OH.

If we win it, it is a pure bonus.

[Rice4VP]

22. Georgia or Texas

I think he will win Arizona, which wouldn’t be a surprise

[Awsi Dooger]

24. Nothing that isn't already on the radar

There is no such thing as a monumental general election upset in our direction. The reason is that those states all have 20+% more conservatives than liberals.

The ideological wall prevents the tide from going over the top

I think Indiana will be closer than expected because the conservative to liberal gap is only 16%. Likewise the gap in Kansas is not overwhelming and the educational numbers are good in Kansas. Montana and Alaska could be single digits.

[Demsrule86]

27. In desperate times, there are surprises.

[budkin]

30. Arizona is still surprising to me

Beyond that Georgia or Texas.