Charlie Cook: "This Cake Is Baked."

[kpete]

His [Trump’s] standing is impervious to events. The vast majority of voters decided a long time ago whether they liked him or not, whether they would approve of his actions, and whether they would support his candidacy. For many voters, this cake is baked.

Alan Greenspan’s irrational exuberance has given way, in my mind, to irrational caution. This is not 2016.

More:
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/trumps-ceiling-too-low-him-be-reelected
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/9/16/1977822/-Charlie-Cook-This-Cake-Is-Baked?utm_campaign=trending

[malaise]

1. Get thee to the greatest page

RFN!

[Cirque du So-What]

2. At this point, I view with skepticism anyone claiming indecision

I’m inclined to attribute it to a ploy for getting attention.

[Dave in VA]

25. This!

Some people will say anything to get their 5 minutes on television.

[TwilightZone]

26. Agreed.

The vast, vast majority of people made up their minds about Trump years ago, some decades ago.

[spanone]

3. K&R...

[2naSalit]

4. K&R

[Blue Owl]

5. All the scoops in the world can't save you now, Donny

n/t

[Demsrule86]

6. K&R

[TheBlackAdder]

7. While the cake is baked, it could be stolen as it sits to cool on the window sill next to the pies.

[Botany]

8. While the cake is baked, it could be stolen

[IronLionZion]

12. Never trust a bear wearing a hat and tie

Because that's a sign he's smarter than the average bear

[cwydro]

16. Very well played!

And true!

[malaise]

19. Someone left the cake out in the rain - not this time

[Gothmog]

9. We still need to GOTV

trump is going to cheat and we need to GOTV to prevent trump from trying to steal this election

[SergeStorms]

10. Republicans are going to cheat....

BIGLY! It's their stock and trade, and they're pulling out all the stops this time. Trump's name is on the side of the Snake Oil wagon, but all republicans have a hand in brewing the oil itself.

[woodsprite]

24. In DE, we had our state primary election yesterday

10s of thousands more Dems voted than Repubs. The repubs are saying it's rigged. ***IT WAS A FREAKIN' PRIMARY*** and we're a heavily Dem state. Dems are more numerous in our state, care more about their own and other peoples safety, and are more open to email and mail-in voting. State repubs are shouting about trying to make it so mail-in ballots are not accepted in the general. Not sure about down ballot races, but the Repubs did vote in a QAnon candidate, ex-addict, who (according to her campaign page) used to run with the drug cartels, etc. She'll be running against Chris Coons for the Senate. We can't let a QAnon Trumper steal his spot.

Meet DE's newest Whack-job Barbie! Lauren Witzke. She's not a witch!

[SergeStorms]

31. She's Trump's "type".

Blonde, not too bright, and will do whatever Hair Fuhrer likes. I don't think I'd go bragging about being an addict and a mule for drug cartels on my political website though. Yeah, republicans keep coming up with more and more of the "best people", don't they? It's amazing how far republicans have fallen in the past two decades.

[woodsprite]

32. Her supporters on

DelawareOnline and WDEL say she’s A believer, healed and forgiven because she’s been washed with the “blood of Christ” and Dems are awful for pointing out her past, yada, yada, yada.

They apparently don’t give Biden or Coons the same benefit of their Christian beliefs.

I’m just really concerned that the slower-lower ref vote is creeping north in DE like the plague.

[SergeStorms]

45. If she's soundly defeated...

which, at least to me, sounds like a definite possibility, maybe they'll try to keep the complete bozos from encroaching into the more northern climes. "Jebus" has a stronger foothold down there, and education isn't as highly valued. Christians certainly do love to wash things in blood, don't they? Morbid thugs.

[woodsprite]

46. Like my daughter said, if she had the same back story

But was brown or black, they never would have voted for her. No matter whether she was “washed in the blood of Christ” or not.

[SergeStorms]

47. You betcha!

[IronLionZion]

11. It comes down to turnout

so if our side is enthusiastic to vote, we win. Whether it's early voting, mail in votes, in person, absentee, etc. We need more of our voters in more states to vote for our candidates.

The other side will do whatever they can to discourage or suppress our side from voting.

[pat_k]

42. ". . .The other side will do whatever they can to discourage or suppress our side from voting."

[marble falls]

13. We don't need to turn his voters, all we need to do is turn out all the Democrats that can vote.

[kentuck]

14. Not only do we have to GOTV...

We have to stop votes from being suppressed and votes from being stolen.

It is not so simple.

[pat_k]

41. +1

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=14084481

[BlueWavePsych]

15. GOTV and VOLUNTEER if you can!

[lindysalsagal]

17. Cook: "Trump's Ceiling Is Too Low for Him to Be Reelected"

I agree.

[calimary]

29. He can't EVER seem to get to 50% in the general polling.

Even on supposedly “good” days. I think in nearly four years of this torture, he may have done so once, or twice. And that’s been IT.

In the overall general polling, not in the various subcategories.

I don’t remember seeing that before, especially in an incumbent. So he’s going to HAVE TO cheat to win. He will NOT get anywhere near there except, and unless, he CHEATS.

And the only way to override that cheating (which he’s good at and has all the right connections for) it to OVERWHELM it. By an avalanche of votes.

The GOP knows this. If they can get close enough to cheat to win, that’s exactly what they’ll do.

[lame54]

18. It's the cheating we are worried about...

These fools are acting like it's a typical fair election

Even though Trump successfully cheated to get the job in the first place

[iemitsu]

23. There are no typical fair elections in America.

States like Florida have always cheated and other republican led states aren't much better.

[lame54]

27. You and I know that but...

Those with an actual megaphone don't

[iemitsu]

34. Or they are not willing to admit it.

[JI7]

38. That's why it's important to get as high turnout as we can

the closer the actual numbers are, the easier it is to steal.

[iemitsu]

43. That's right.

[msongs]

20. president hillary clinto agrees nt

[RedSpartan]

21. Soon.

[iemitsu]

22. I think those with unfavorable views of Trump actually hate him.

People just didn't like Hillary.

[OverBurn]

28. At this point if Biden really was a baby eating devil worshipper and I'd still vote for him.

[Jarqui]

30. Great news if he's right

Too many head winds of corruption.

Trump is truly evil.
Needs a stake through his political heart (stated figuratively)

Don't let up because of reports like this.

[Sympthsical]

33. It all comes down to who votes

If this were a normal year, I think we'd see a repeat of the Blue Wave of 2018. I think the majority of Americans are very enthused about shit canning this embarrassment.

With the pandemic, things get murkier. It comes down to people who are making the effort to do mail in ballots, who risks going to the polls, etc. Trumpsters don't fear the virus as much as we do, so it feels like they'd go regardless (and I cannot wait until the anti-mask assholes make a stink about not being let into a polling place. That'll be a story).

Pile in all the suppression and dirty tricks, and Trump does have a shot.

I'm actually more optimistic about Biden in 2020 than I was about Clinton in 2016. I genuinely thought she could lose and was called a concern troll for saying so. I never thought we had it in the bag nor believed the whole, "She has a bajillion percent chance of winning!" I was not surprised that election night as the rest of my friends watched in total shock.

That said, I'm optimistic with some caution we're going to have a President Biden. But I do get nervous because of Covid.

[pat_k]

37. "Pile in all the suppression and dirty tricks, and Trump does have a shot." -- Spot On! (nt)

[pat_k]

35. The polls don't account for suppression/voter role purges/disqualification of legitimate votes.

In a truly free and fair presidential election, Biden would be unbeatable.

But we haven't seen a truly free and fair election in more than 20 years.

Trump's 2016 "win" was made possible by suppression/voter role purges/disqualification of legitimate votes.

Obama's margin of victory in 2008 and 2012 would have been far greater, but for suppression/voter role purges/disqualification of legitimate votes.

Bush's 2004 "win" was made possible by suppression/voter role purges/disqualification of legitimate votes.

Bush's 2000 "win" was made possible suppression/voter role purges/disqualification of legitimate votes and five black robed traitors.

Republican control of state governments has been trending up. Their concerted efforts to deny "certain" people the right to vote in a free and fair election (and to have their vote accurately counted) have been increasingly successful.

One of the most effective tactics is the closure of polling places in "certain areas," creating long lines. They also allocate fewer and older machines in high density, more democratic areas.

Time is money, and lines are the new poll tax. I have little doubt that when confronted with a very long line, more than 5 people per 100 turn around and go back to work or to take care of other responsibilities. And the more confident a voter is that a win for their candidate is a "done deal" the more likely they are to leave. This year, in addition to cutting back the number of polling places (for both early and election day voting), some states are severely limiting the number of drop boxes (which makes it a lot harder for an absentee or mail in voter to bypass the broken postal system).

Even with COVID, the reduction in polling places will have a significant negative effect. Younger people vote later -- often waiting until election day. The refusal to count votes after election day, as long as they are postmarked by election day, will also disproportionately disqualify ballots from younger people.

Democrats beware. Overconfidence suppresses democratic votes. And that makes it easier for republicans to steal an election.

We need a new voting rights act. The ideal federal law would impose a substantial fine on any state that fails to provide adequate resources. (For example, if registered voters have to wait in lines more than 30 minutes, have to travel more than 10 miles to a drop box, or have to overcome some other unacceptable barrier, the state is hit with a fine that costs them far more than providing enough resources would.) They won't run fair elections without a serious financial incentive.

[JI7]

36. The issue right now is Voter Suppression

[pat_k]

39. Yes, Yes Yes!!!!

And overconfidence suppresses turnout, making it easier for Republicans to steal an election.

[JI7]

40. no, Republicans cheating is the problem

[pat_k]

44. Of course!

As I posted above.


Suppressed democratic turnout due to overconfidence just makes it easier for them to successfully steal an election.