If voters are wary of stating support for Trump in polls, why does he outperform GOP Senate candidat

[RandySF]

President Trump is very sensitive to what public opinion polls say about his presidency. He pretends not to be, but on many occasions when Trump-friendly pollsters show his approval at or above 50 percent, he tweets about it. He constantly insists that his approval rating among Republicans is at 96 percent, an invented figure, and nearly as often insists that polls are failing to capture his full support.

“Yesterday, I guess we had a 53 [approval] poll,” Trump said last September, referring to one of those Trump-friendly polls. “And a lot of people say add 10 points to anything. Anybody voting for Trump, you can add — anytime you get a poll, you can add 10 points or seven points or six points. Take it any way you want.”

The president doesn’t usually go into why those points should be added, but he appears to subscribe to what’s become known as the “shy Trump voter” theory: that Trump supporters are 1) unwilling to share their support, 2) interested in fooling pollsters or 3) not included in polling. Add those factors, and, boom, throw however many points you want on top of existing poll numbers.

For Trump, this theory has the happy side effect of making his support look larger than it otherwise would be. He’s not trailing former vice president Joe Biden; add X number of points, and, suddenly, you’ve got a tie.




https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/09/16/if-voters-are-wary-stating-support-trump-polls-why-does-he-outperform-senate-candidates/

[kurtcagle]

1. If anything, most magats tend to shout their support of Trump obnoxiously

By and large, Trump supporters are at the extreme end of extroversion - self-centered, loud, publicly opinionated, and jingoistic. They have all the sensitivity of immigration walls in Texas. This is why I find all this belief that there are millions upon millions of Trump supporters that are secretly staying quiet for fear that they'll be targeted by the liberals to be so funny - attacking liberals is precisely the behavior THEY have engaged in for the past four years. It's one of the reasons I'm actually fairly convinced that the numbers you're seeing in the polls may actually have a small (2-3% point) bias towards Trump - spouses (especially women) may be saying that they will be voting for Trump but don't plan to do so, just to keep their marriages intact, people who are being surveyed publicly are worried that they will be overheard by acquaintances if they claim they won't vote for Trump, etc.

Moreover, the margin of error in most of these polls is actually fairly small - very few undecideds. A large MoE worked in Trump's favor in 2016, but this time around, the MoE is only about 2.5%, rather than the 4.5% typical of 2016, and that means that if the tracking polls are outside that 2.5% MoE (1.25% either way), then the polls are likely either accurate or are undercounting Biden's already larger support.

[Eid Ma Clack Shaw]

2. I suspect overcorrection and caution from pollsters

and, as a result, that Biden’s margin of victory will be greater than the polling average, GOP voter suppression shenanigans not withstanding.

[Johnny2X2X]

6. I agree

There's an overabundance of caution and that's good for us, will make the race seem closer than it is.

The polls in 2016 were pretty accurate nationally. State polls were off in several states, but about half the pollsters have redone their methods based on that so this time around the state polls should be more locked in, in fact I think they're probably overcompensating and are too pro Trump right now. States where Trump is down 6 or 7, he may be down 10 or 12.

[Wounded Bear]

3. MoE is based almost entirely on number of people polled...

really doesn't have much to do with "silent" voters. The more people polled, the lower the MoE and the greater chance of accuracy.

We're in that part of the cycle where they look to poll 'likely' voters instead of just registered voters. Undecideds tend to drop anyway when that shift happens each election.

What has been true for many years still works, though. As voter turnout increases, chances for Dems getting elected improve, so GOTV like never before.

Oh, and like the poster above said, most Trumpers seem to be more of the obnoxiously loud and proud type than "silent." I wish they would shut up more.

[qwlauren35]

5. I don't agree.

There are people voting for Trump because they love Trump (MAGAts), and then there are Republicans who are voting for party, including women voting for party because they are pro-Life. They are not the same.

I don't think the Republicans are necessarily loud people. Just loyal to party.

I think there are lots of Republicans who are embarrassed to be voting for Trump, and would not want to admit it.

[JI7]

4. I think the ones who may not want to admit they support him are the ones that live in Blue Areas

But those numbers are small with those opposed to Trump wayy outnumbering those who would vote for him.