New Climate Maps Show a Transformed United States

[ancianita]

One map is interactive.







https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/

[2naSalit]

1. That's assuming...

We survive the next twelve years.

[ancianita]

2. I hear you. Let's assume.

[Polybius]

8. Is there any reason you picked the number 12, or was in random?

Just wondering if something potentially bad is going to happen in the next 12 years. The only thing I could think of would be if Trump gets re-elected and then we have 8 years of Pence.

[2naSalit]

10. IIRC...

There was a report out in the last ten months stating that we have twelve years to get our shit together and do some heavy lifting or we're toast by then. It was a mainstay in Greta Thunberg's, remember her?, statements.

[bdamomma]

40. With

Greta Thunberg and many others to join in to acknowledge the growing risks of climate change, we can hopefully change this.

We are deep shit on all fronts.

[JonLP24]

11. 12 years is based on the study that was done

We have 12 years to limit climate change catastrophe, warns UN

The world’s leading climate scientists have warned there is only a dozen years for global warming to be kept to a maximum of 1.5C, beyond which even half a degree will significantly worsen the risks of drought, floods, extreme heat and poverty for hundreds of millions of people.

The authors of the landmark report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released on Monday say urgent and unprecedented changes are needed to reach the target, which they say is affordable and feasible although it lies at the most ambitious end of the Paris agreement pledge to keep temperatures between 1.5C and 2C.

The half-degree difference could also prevent corals from being completely eradicated and ease pressure on the Arctic, according to the 1.5C study, which was launched after approval at a final plenary of all 195 countries in Incheon in South Korea that saw delegates hugging one another, with some in tears.

“It’s a line in the sand and what it says to our species is that this is the moment and we must act now,” said Debra Roberts, a co-chair of the working group on impacts. “This is the largest clarion bell from the science community and I hope it mobilises people and dents the mood of complacency.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-not-exceed-15c-warns-landmark-un-report

The study is from 2018 so we have less than 12 years to act.

[maxsolomon]

22. Hope everyone understands that 10 years is not enough time to change anything

In this political climate.

The collective will is not there, and even if it were, America's intransigence, created by the Fossil Fuel Industry's lies and money, has dug a deep hole of distrust and doubt we have to climb out of to forge any semblance of a collective will.

The cake is baked.

[Moostache]

34. Sadly I agree...

There is no off-ramp left. This car is going to hit the wall. The only thing left to do is reduce the speed enough to avoid killing everyone in it...and right now, the lunatics behind the wheel are hitting the gas and not the brakes.

COVID-19 exposed everything in our society. The injustice, the inequality, the broken systems and governance...all of it laid bare. Climate scientists have been saying it for DECADES. The reports and figures have been soft-pedaled and denied for the same length of time.

Who lost? Everyone. Even the jackasses that made tons of money and falsely feel that accumulated wealth will have any value in a society that splits at the seams and against populations driven by one thing and one thing only - surviving another season.

I do not want any part of a post-civilization world. I won't even try to survive it because without modern society and the benefits of civilization, I have no interest in living. I know many WILL, and I wish them luck - among them will be my own offspring and progeny; but I can't lie, I think their prospects are bleak and that humanity will be reduced to stone age hunter-gathers by this time next century.

All that was built, all that was achieved, all that COULD have been done differently to preserve and prosper instead of to horde and accumulate material...its so tragic, and if you really stop to think about it for any length of time, so depressing.

It did not have to be this way, but it is.

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

48. Tragic.

Makes those who peddled the "Greed is good" mantra even more blatantly evil.

[H2O Man]

14. I think that

what the map shows is distinct from if our species survives or not.

[NRaleighLiberal]

16. this.

[ancianita]

35. It's distinct in being more short term, yes. There's likely no map for where the species survives,

if it does. Maybe the map implies that in the long run the hope is that our species can survive closer to the poles.

[former9thward]

49. There are no scientists that say that. None.

If you know of one, of the tens of millions, please give us a link.

[ancianita]

54. I didn't say that scientists say that. I don't even imply that the species can survive.

I said, "Maybe the map implies that in the long run the hope is..."

This is information from Propublica. I'm not going to argue interpretations.

I put their info out there. Take it or leave it.

[LAS14]

3. Wo!!! Check out high tide in 2060. I bet a majority of DUers live in affected areas. nt

[JonLP24]

4. I live in the Phoenix area which looks to be the worst place to live for the future

I should think about moving to Buffalo or somewhere similar in the future.

[NoRoadUntravelled]

15. Same here.

We'll be leaving the the state very soon. Already spoke to a realtor about listing our house. The drought combined with the rapid growth makes this area unsustainable. The govt. GES basically states the same thing. I'll take the word of the scientists. Record breaking heat and drought year after year is not a pleasant thing to look forward to.

I'm amazed at all the new development here. Developers are supposed to be able to show there will be water to sustain their development for the next 100 years. There's no way that's possible now and yet gaining permits doesn't seem to be an issue. It's all about the money.

[Mickju]

27. That is very smart of you.

[Wounded Bear]

5. Sobering predictions...nt

[Blecht]

6. WAF

We are fucked.

[wiggs]

7. interesting analysis. Bleak as hell. nt

[pamdb]

9. map

I know we'll be long dead by 2070, but as I said to my husband, we're not leaving Michigan.

We have plenty of water and green and if we want to go somewhere in the winter for a month or even a week, fine, or just hunker down at home (we're old and retired) it's still
better than some other areas. We don't have wildfires, we don't have hurricanes, we don't have flooding and the last major tornado I remember was somewhere in the late 1980's.
I loved New Orleans last time I was there, but who lives in a city below sea level. We always
enjoy northern California and the redwoods, but you couldn't pay me to live there, not that
we could afford it. Just waiting for some people to look at the continual devastation and
then look at the midwest and think....hmmmmmm.... We may be boring but sometimes
boring isn't all that bad.

[Boomer]

28. I'm too old to move

And I won't be around in 2040, much less 2070, but I'm thankful I also live in a relatively stable area. I'm not as far north, but no hurricanes, no mudslides and flooding, no forest fires.

Pro tip: Given the pace of climate change, when you hear a prediction about when changes will occur, halve it. Change is happening much more quickly and accelerating than our predictions can track. So I'm betting you'll see these effects by 2050, if not earlier.

[Luciferous]

50. I always thought I would move to Texas some day but I know that I will probably

stay in Wisconsin because of climate change. I also considered the northwest but that's out now.

[Klaralven]

12. I would't have guessed that Cotton Belt & Eastern Oklahoma were the current most suitable places

The Creek and Cherokee were most fortunate in our choice of where to send them.

The Southern states have lots of solar power and can use it to air condition living spaces. Air conditioning in the south is generally more energy efficient than heating buildings in the north, due to the smaller outside/inside temperature difference averaged over the day and years.

[ancianita]

13. Re southern states ...

I'd agree about AC in living spaces, but that's assuming your claim about smaller outside/inside temperature difference holds in the future. I don't think it will.

[ancianita]

18. Colorful and cool. Will do.

[NutmegYankee]

19. WHY is New England left out of these maps.

Take the farming map for instance - I'm surrounded by farms. Yet we are colored as a desert.

[FakeNoose]

21. It's not left off

The white color of New England just means there's no change in farming production relative to the emissions/pollution, so that's a good thing! If they start building a lot of factories and highways in the next 50 years, you might have something to worry about.

[FakeNoose]

20. I'm happy to be living in SW Pennsylvania

Our temperatures should be improving in the next 50 years, even though I won't be around to take advantage. There's always plenty of rain here, but very few big storms, and we don't have to worry about coastal flooding. Our winters aren't bad now, and they should be getting better.

[IronLionZion]

31. Yeah but you have to deal with Trump supporters

[FakeNoose]

36. Not at all!

I don't even know any ChumpHumpers. I live in a BLUE city - Pittsburgh - and a BLUE county - Allegheny. Life is good!

[DemoTex]

23. "Smoke & Sun in a Forest of the Standing Dead"

My dystopian photograph of fire-and-smoke destruction, an all-too-common scene in the US West, rendered in the style of the American Realism painter Thomas Hart Benton, with notes of Edward Hopper. My apologies to both.

Pinyon Peak Sunrise (at about 9500 feet)
River of No Return Wilderness
Idaho - September 2020

[Boomer]

25. Beautifully sobering

[calimary]

30. Heartbreaking and, frankly, terrifying, DemoTex.

[bdamomma]

44. And to all those

damn climate deniers......................go to hell.

So sad, what is happening to our country, we got to all VOTE.

[Boomer]

24. If you're young, move NOW

Each year that goes by, more people will leave and the livable areas will become even more crowded. You'll want to be their sooner rather than later, while property is still available, much less affordable.

If you wait until you have to leave your area, you've waited too long.

[RhodeIslandOne]

26. Except the coastline.....

[Johnny2X2X]

29. People who think this won't be so bad because of where they live are missing the point

I live in MI, this could mean much milder Winters for us, sounds great right? Wrong. This could completely throw the ecosystem here off. Harsh winters are vital in Michigan's very particular ecosystem. Without them the soil would not be as fertile and the ground water would deplete. Lake levels could change for the worse. Water quality could suffer. Not to mention the delicate balance of animal life could be interrupted. More mosquitoes, more pest insects, more pest rodents and deer destroying crops. More humid Summers where being outdoors is uncomfortable.

Our eco-systems reach a balance over long periods of times, changing that balance will have catastrophic effects for all regions of the country, even the ones where people are seemingly going to get a break in harsh Winters.

[roamer65]

39. Not to mention the northward migration of people.

[NickB79]

52. Assisted migration is crucial, IMO

Where we actively move plants from further south to Northern areas far faster than Nature can do, given how rapidly we're warming the planet.

I've got pecan, chestnut, flowering dogwood, tulip poplar, bald cypress, redbud, pawpaw, osage orange, umbrella magnolia, silverbell and tupelo grown from northern edge of their range seed on my land in southern Minnesota. Many I collected myself from rare parent trees I hunted down on college campuses and arboretums in the Midwest through word of mouth in the online gardening community. Some of my trees are 10 yr old. These are species associated more closely with areas like Georgia, yet they're making it through our winters. Once I pay off my mortgage in 7 yr, I'll be buying more acres to expand.

As the native species die off, we need heat-tolerant species to take their place, or risk an ecosystem collapsing into nothing but weedy invasives.

[RedSpartan]

32. I would like to point out

that New Jersey remains in the sweet spot on all the maps. As a proud born-and-raised Jersey Guy, I'm just saying.

[FakeNoose]

37. Yes! As long as you're not on the Jersey shore

... you're looking pretty good!

[LudwigPastorius]

33. The TL;DR version:

If you're young, and are going to live for another 50+ years, move to Vermont.

[roamer65]

38. We in the Great Lakes states need to build a wall.

Also we need to consider secession and joining the Canadian confederation. We will need the hard border.

[ancianita]

41. Eventually people with water resources might try that, but it would be wrong, imo.

Evolution shows that humans survive better through cooperative use, not competitive use, of resources.

[roamer65]

42. Humans will come north, overpopulate it and destroy it.

Just like they are the rest of the planet.

[ancianita]

43. If there is still civilized rule of law and plenty of water, they'll have to adapt and do

their part to live in harmony. I don't see survival as the zero sum game or competition that you envision.

[roamer65]

45. I do as climate change gets worse.

Just wait until we get to 1000 ppm GHG’s and the cognitive impairment from it starts to become noticeable.

I don’t see people staying “civilized” when food and water are scarce.

Glad I probably won’t be around to see it.

[ancianita]

46. It's unlikely that water will be scarce since No.America is one of the world's largest

fresh watersheds. Canada is the second largest country on the planet with thousands of fresh water lakes, rivers and aquifers. It and Siberia will be able to absorb migrating humans, I'm sure. How they are ruled will determine the quality of life there, imo.

As China will tell you, walls have never worked. You know that, right?

[bdamomma]

47. Mother Nature

is showing us now how pissed off she is. Fires, Hurricanes and a pandemic. So bad.

I wouldn't mind living on the space station now just to observe our beautiful blue marble.

[roamer65]

53. She's just getting started.

[smirkymonkey]

51. Interesting how the red states, who seem to fare worst in this scenario, are the places

where the least amount of people believe in climate change. They are going to be sadly surprised.