VA-05 is now a TOSS UP
Good's biggest problem might be money. By the end of June, Good had raised just $259,000 for the cycle, while Webb had raised $1.3 million and is on pace to raise $5 million total for the cycle. Sensing a mismatch — and real danger — the NRCC went on air with coordinated ads in early September to try to bail Good out. The ads warn voters to "look past the smooth presentation" and that Webb would "defund the police."
But Webb perfectly anticipated the attack, immediately responding with an ad accusing Good of "lying" about him wanting to defund the police and then featuring a multi-racial group of beefy retired county sheriffs endorsing his campaign.
The biggest challenge for Webb may be turnout in Charlottesville. Although in-person classes at UVA began on September 8, it's not clear how many students will be on grounds in November and how the pandemic will limit efforts to register them to vote in the 5th CD. The district is extremely polarized, and Webb will likely need at least a 35,000 vote margin out of Charlottesville and surrounding Albemarle County to win.
This wasn't originally a seat Republicans thought they'd have to worry about. But the combination of GOP disunity, an exceptional Democratic candidate and a big fundraising disparity mean they'll need to scramble to avert a disaster. Trump will almost certainly win the district, but private polling taken by both parties suggests Webb's ads have broken through. The race moves from Lean Republican to the Toss Up column.
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/virginia-house/rating-change-republicans-sound-alarm-rigglemans-va-05-moves-toss
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