"246,600 more people have died than usual from March 15 to Aug. 22, according to C.D.C. estimates"

[Pobeka]

Last edited Fri Sep 18, 2020, 01:18 PM - Edit history (1)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html
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Add in the approximately 750 recorded COVID19 deaths per day since August 22 and the USA is at about 266,000 deaths most likely due to COVID19 since March 15.

This is what lack of leadership, undermining scientists and health experts for perceived political gain has gotten us.

-- on edit, I am changing the post title. This is NOT a CDC study, but rather CDC data used by the NY times article.

Old title was: "Nationwide, 246,600 more people have died than usual from March 15 to Aug. 22, according to C.D.C."

[Laelth]

1. That's a reliable statistic.

It suggests that we are undercounting COVID-19 deaths rather than overcounting them.

Bookmarked.

-Laelth

[Hugin]

4. I'm surprised the official COVID count is as close as it is to this number.

In spite of everything being thrown at them someone out there is still doing their job.

Kudos to them!

[Laelth]

7. I am too.

It appears we’re only undercounting by about 20%. That’s not too bad, in the grand scheme of things.

-Laelth

[Pobeka]

10. I think they are missing 1 in 4 deaths.

If I look at John hopkins data on Aug 29 (added a week to account for lag in death reports due to covid), I see a number around 183,000 deaths. 246,000/183,000 is 1.34, or 1 unreported death per 3 reported deaths.

[Pobeka]

11. Good on the NY times, for sure! n/t

[Pobeka]

6. Keep checking, they routinely update it. n/t

[Laelth]

8. Will do. Thank you for posting. n/t

-Laelth

[House of Roberts]

2. Comparing year over year stats gets more realistic numbers.

Too many red states are trying to cook the books and misclassify deaths.

There's still a lot of days left before the election. The numbers will get worse.

[Wounded Bear]

3. Needs to be seen widely...nt

[tiptonic]

17. So true

So true. Putin will probably have a plane waiting for Benedict donald, after he looses the election. So he can retire to Russia.

Semper Fidelis

[soothsayer]

5. Isn't this what K-lie said the WH uses when looking at OTHER countries?

When she said “We use different numbers” the other day. But not looking at those same numbers here, of course.

[Dem2]

9. Exactly.

Even the margin of error in this calculation puts the official count near the minimum of extra deaths. I.e. - there are more deaths than the official count, not less. Anybody who says otherwise is spewing propaganda.

[DSandra]

12. "Your on your own"

“If you suffer or die, tough!”

This is what Republican thinking leads to. Lots and lots of suffering and deaths.

[DSandra]

13. An epic massacre

Trump and the Republicans have us where they want us: vulnerable, stressed, exhausted, and struggling to survive.

America has been the richest nation in the world but that never meant that the spoils would be divided fairly. It doesn’t matter jack that this country is so rich if the 1% take most of the pie leaving everyone else to struggle for the scraps in order to survive.

[ancianita]

14. Google's COVID Dashboard shows 202,617 dead specifically from COVID-19.

https://ncov2019.live/data

[Pobeka]

16. That's current, this analysis was deaths as of Aug 22. n/t

[ancianita]

22. I'm aware, thanks. For either date,

this Dashboard number just updates your main idea that

This is what lack of leadership, undermining scientists and health experts for perceived political gain has gotten us.

There's no implied argument in my post, just more recent information to support your point.

[Pobeka]

25. Yes!! thanks n/t

[TheRickles]

18. And to bypass the question of dying "with" vs. dying "from" Covid...

Here's the CDC graph showing all-cause mortality, as the OP is describing. So even if people's deaths were misattributed to Covid, as some Covid skeptics say, there are still two big bumps from something: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Using this website's dashboard, you can focus in on individual states and age brackets. The main patterns are known - the elderly make up a disproportionate number of deaths during these spikes (the big one in April and the smaller one in August), with the second wave largely confined to the Southern states that rushed to re-open (AZ, TX, FL, etc.). But the overall US death rate seems to be pretty much back to normal now.

[ancianita]

21. Do you happen to know or have a link to the US's base death rate?

I ask because, if the overall rate is down, but then to face a 'herd mentality' plan that requires 70% infection with 6 million dead, is "let it happen" and "make it happen" death panel, and basically, fascist leadership.

There's that political context.

[TheRickles]

27. The yellow line on the CDC graph

is the baseline death rate, adjusted for incompleteness of data, delays in reporting, etc. So it seems that the baseline death rate has gotten back to normal, at least for the moment. The future depends, obviously, on how our public health standards are gradually opened up.

Here's an interesting story on Sweden, whose numbers are a lot better than I'd thought from reading most MSM. This article highlights their relatively relaxed approach, with a focus on protecting vulnerable elders rather than restricting society as a whole:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/15/sweden-records-its-fewest-daily-covid-19-cases-since-march

[ancianita]

28. Well, talking about infection rates

in a thread where we're talking death rates can seem to conflate the two. I think I do get your point, though. And I love hearing all the good news from Northern social democracies.

Re Sweden, though, a lower infection rate can also be correlated with a high die-off number that they got by mistakenly using the herd immunity model.

Anyway, though I'm no epidemiologist, I'd prefer to think that lower the death numbers that might correlate with lower infection numbers can be attributed with a self-disciplined society that applies good science expert advice. Also, lower death numbers could be the result of just timely, accessible, good health care.

When you're in a small social democracy whose education, health care and monoculture enable a united resistance to pandemics, they look impressive; but imo, their success is to be expected.

They've got characteristics that might be scaled up to the 3rd largest country on the planet, but any scale-up costs of even one of northern Europe's health care (or govt) systems has been fought here by 'free market' capitalist elites, tooth and nail, at least 60 times in the Senate, at a cost of $60 million of our tax money.

I wonder if Trump voters have come to care more now, because of their increased connections to those who've died from their party's indifference over the last three years.

[Traildogbob]

15. Europe!!!!

Last night reading the crawlers on CNN while watching Biden, the headlines show European Countries are having another massive blow up of Covid, to levels of its peak early this year. And that is happening withOUT Trump maskless packed Jamborees. “Shit”is coming and industrial fans are on high. Red hats are gonna die....good.....but these vectors are gonna slaughter us all for FreeDumb. God I hate these brainless mouth breathers. The largest orifice they have, wide open so Covid colonies can Multiple like Santorums and Romney’s.

[Heartstrings]

19. Not only will massive #'s die

but an unprecedented amount of others will be left with lifelong pre-existing conditions...

[greenjar_01]

23. I think we're probably around 250,000 actual deaths as a direct result of COVID-19 infections

I'm not saying there's a bad faith undercount, but they are definitely not doing postmortem tests on possible cases if they had other health issues. Let's just say that I know that as a sad fact.

It's eerily where Fauci and Birx said we'd be around now, or at the top of that range.

[ProfessorGAC]

24. The Actuaries I Know...

...all of whom are still employed in the insurance industry, have been telling me for at least 3 months the number must be 15-30% higher than reported.
This fits that range.

[Pobeka]

26. Nice confirmation, thanks n/t