A question about voter suppression of absentee-ballots and the electoral college.

[Baitball Blogger]

The latest word is that Trump is going to try to use the courts to declare a winner on election day. That means that states that count absentee ballots on or after election day are going to see a major voter suppression. We also know there are states that lean red, and are guaranteed to vote for Trump. So, lets talk about the combination of red states, plus states that count absentee ballots on or after election day. If his plans for voter suppression work, what combination of states does he need to win the electoral college? What state are in his cross-hairs?

On update, Abnredleg from the Florida group provided this excellent link:


https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

[Thekaspervote]

1. Unless the vote total is close and a recount is in question, he has no legal standing to ask courts

To decide... elections are state run

[Baitball Blogger]

2. Looks like Pelosi was right.

We have to win by a landslide. While Republicans can win by 532 votes.

[Statistical]

4. Exactly while in a fair race 270 EV makes Biden the President there will be challenges

Biden picking up 340 EV means refusing to certify in some states isn't enough to flip the election. It isn't fair but Biden needs to win big.

[LisaL]

3. Trump says lots of things.

He thinks he is eligible for the third term. He wants to sign an executive order that Biden can't be president. And so on. He wants to scare people from voting.

[Fiendish Thingy]

5. If the vote is not close, triggering recount, what would be the legal grounds to challenge?

What precisely would be the legal grounds to impede a state counting and certifying their votes?

I suppose he could try and get an injunction alleging fraud, but without evidence, doubt he would prevail. Once results were certified, he could try and demand an audit, again alleging fraud, but without evidence, likely wouldn’t prevail.

It will be a game of brinkmanship with the governors of each state, and perhaps SCOTUS- uncharted territory, to be sure, but what would the penalty be if a governor/SOS certified results despite a court injunction- contempt of court?

Once the results are certified, the slate of the state’s electors is Appointed- don’t know if the courts have any jurisdiction over that process, not aware of any court interference in appointment of electors in US history. The only deviation from the norm that I am aware of is when a state sends two slates of electors (one appointed by Gov/SOS, the other by legislature), again, without involvement of the courts, who don’t appear to have any jurisdiction.

Once electors are appointed, the Constitution states they must vote on Dec. 14, with those votes certified by Congress on Jan. 6.

No doubt Trump, with Barr’s help, will attempt to disrupt the process, but it isn’t at all certain he could prevail.

[2naSalit]

7. Interesting...

The new Congress is sworn in on Jan. 4, certification of the electoral votes is two days later.

We need to make sure to flop the Senate.

[yellowdogintexas]

8. the various states have different rules regarding recounts too

some are based on the closeness of the vote, some require contesting by one of the participants and some are triggered automatically.

[Fiendish Thingy]

9. But the Contestant has to pay for the recount unless triggered by law

And they have to finish the initial count first- that’s the process I question that Trump has no legal standing to interfere with (That’s where Bill Barr would likely come in, alleging a crime is in progress, although it is questionable he would have jurisdiction)

[yellowdogintexas]

6. Texas: Ballot counting begins as soon as ballots arrive at the Elections Office

In my county ballots are scanned so theoretically all that scanning could take place during the day on Election Day. Any review work has already been done. I think the ballots are counted ahead of time so that on Election Day it will show that a person has already voted if they should decide to vote in person. Our Early Voting in person ends at 7 pm on the Friday before Election Day, which gives 3 days to update the voter registry

So, on Election Day, the only mail in ballots which need to be counted are those arriving that day.

Assuming we have the huge turnout we hope for, and should Biden carry Texas, it is pretty much all over but the shouting and any election contesting would be a moot issue. He can't win without Texas, and our mail in votes will have already been counted.