So, how close is Texas this year?

[flamin lib]

To begin with for the first time in my memory the Republican party is spending money on voter registration. Judging from the party emails I'm getting (I think Ted Cruz put me on their list as revenge for a letter I sent him) they are really quite panicked, no longer are they just touting lower taxes and regulations they're now all hair on fire about socialism and freedumb.

Now this: https://www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/article245760680.html

In Tarrant county, once a 70-30 R bastion, the republican candidates have removed all reference to the Republican party from their campaign material and they're running on health care and protecting pre-existing condition coverage.

Is this the year Texas goes blue? That will be a monumental feat. But they're scared and it's close enough that the TX Republican Party won't look like has in the past regardless of the outcome.

[Statistical]

1. Texas could flip but I think it is unlikely. Most polls put Dump up 2 pts or so.

which is just crazy. There however hasn't been a lot of good polling because well nobody expected Texas to be competitive. I mean it is Texas right. The fact that it is even close bodes poorly for the GOP. Demographics will continue to shift against them. Texas is becoming more urban, younger, and more non-white.

Even if there is a narrow loss in Texas that will completely energize Democratic candidates and grass root efforts and fundraising for future races. A "near miss" in 2020 increases the chance of flipping Texas in 2024 or 2028. It also means Republicans increasingly having to spend huge amounts of money to keep it from slipping blue. Without Texas Republicans will never again win the Presidency.

[Mystery sage]

2. I like the sound of that!!

[flamin lib]

5. There's another problem with polling.

Most polls are based on past voters or likely voters. I think the party has registered more than 2 million new voters who are not represented by polling. Quoting MJ Hagar, "With all the new voters this year I'll take being 4 points down on Cornyn as a win."

[Polybius]

9. A "near miss" in 2020 increases the chance of flipping Texas in 2024 or 2028

That all depends on how popular Biden is. If he's a huge success, then yes. If Texas sees him as too liberal and they nominate Cruz in 2024, then they likely win by a wider margin than in 2020.

Remember, it's only close because it's Trump. Any other Republican would be leading by more.

[Statistical]

11. Good point I was a bit simplistic and generous but there is a trend (some numbers ...)

Part of the problem is Presidential elections are rare and there are other factors that means there is a lot of noise in the data.

However here are the last five Presidential elections and the 2020 polling
Year | Dem Margin TX | Dem Margin Nat | Difference
2000 -21% 0% -21%
2004 -23% -3% -20%
2008 -12% 7% -19%
2012 -16% 4% -20%
2016 -9% 2% -11%
2020 -2% 6% -8%

Now first things first I will admit this data is very noisy for two factors. The first is Bush a Texas resident was running in 2000/2004 which factored into his larger than normal margins and then Obama's race likely was a factor as well.

The first number (-21%) is how much the Democratic candidate won/lost Texas by (losses are negative). The second number is the national popular vote. The first thing is how much worse relatively each candidate did in Texas compared to nationally. So in 2000 Gore did about 20% worse in Texas than he did nationally. That is the important number.

As you can see although Obama was popular nationally he didn't really close the gap in Texas relatively to his national share. 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012 were remarkably stable (~-20%). The texas margin which varied from -12% to -21% was largely driven by how popular the candidate was overall. Democrats were at a 20% advantage.

I am going to make an educated guess that Obama's race hid the blueing of Texas that if Obama has been white he would have lost Texas but closed the gap. Maybe by 15% or 13%. In 2016 Clinton did only 11% worse in Texas than she did nationally and Biden is currently projected to do about 8% worse.

Now 8% worse than nationally means for a Democratic candidate to win Texas they would need to be very popular compared to their opponent nationally. However The trend is from 20% worse to 11% worse to 8% worse. What will 2024 be. What will 2028 be. If Texas gets to a place where it is 3 or 4% worse nationally that is getting into battleground territory.

I do agree if the Republican nominee in 2024/2028 is from Texas that puts them off the table.

[MagickMuffin]

3. Yeah Tarrant County has always been troublesome

But I do my part. The Tarrant County Democratic Party is fired up and ready to go. They are always looking for phone bankers, if you have any spare time on your hands.

[flamin lib]

4. I got the T shirt and dare to wear it in Azle! nt

[Gothmog]

6. Texas has been trending blue for a while

There are some demographic trends that indicate that Texas should be blue by 2022 or 2024 but trump seems to accelerating the process. I love seeing Biden ads on TV and right now it seems that Democrats have more ads up on Houston TV compared to GOP candidates

[vercetti2021]

7. It's a chance

But who knows. I really hope Democrats can capture the statehouse here.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

8. Greatest Page for your post, my dear flamin lib! n/t

[qazplm135]

10. Close enough to try

Our hardest.