Three States: PA, NH and FL

[berni_mccoy]

That's what it looks like this Presidential election is coming to. Biden currently leads in PA and NH but he has not currently at the 50% threshold in these states. If you count the Electoral Votes based on current state-by-state polling data, Biden has 290. However, you can flip the winner by flipping three states: PA, NH and FL. Why these three matter:

1. PA has a Republican controlled state legislature and has challenged the Democratic Governor on multiple occasions. The state is closely divided. Based on 538.com, Biden leads 49.7 to 45.2 in this state. Still room enough for Trump to win. It's also Biden's birth state. Trump would love to beat Biden here. Expect the Trump Campaign to ramp up campaigning here. But more so, expect cyber attacks to focus on the States election system. PA is the MI of this presidential election.

2. NH is Republican Controlled. Biden leads 49.7 to 43.0 here. Again, not at the 50% mark so Trump could win. Expect the same here as in PA.

3. FL... it's always Florida. I suspect this will factor into Trump's SCOTUS pick and DeSantis is going to pull out all the stops to ensure Trump holds it.

These three states will become the epicenter of the election and will be the focus of Trump's strategy. If he wins these three, it will be 272 to 266 and Biden could still win the popular vote by a greater margin than Hillary did in 2016. If Trump doesn't win, expect the challenges to focus on these states as well as other close states. Other potential states for targets of Russian cyberattacks will be AZ, NV, WI, MN and yes, MI again.

Expect Barr to drum up false (or use the Russian attacks) in these states to say the elections aren't valid and will challenge them all in court.

[Stallion]

1. Biden Still Wins With Arizona (+6.6) and North Carolina (+1.8)

....if he lost all 3 of those states he's winning now

[Stallion]

7. Also Still Wins with Arizona (+6.6) New Hampshire(+3), the 2nd Maine District(+4.3)

while losing Florida and Pennsylvania

[Laelth]

2. I am not counting on FL.

I am counting on PA. That’s the state that really matters, imo. If Biden wins it, he wins the election. If he loses it, we’re looking at legal challenges and a long election season like 2000. If Biden loses PA, his odds of actually winning will be low because both the SCOTUS and the House State delegations are against him.

I am hoping for (and, honestly, expecting) a Biden landslide. If PA goes for Biden, he wins. If FL goes for Biden, it’s a landslide.

-Laelth

[beachbumbob]

3. Biden can win without Florida, BUT trump can not

[Laelth]

4. I agree. That's why PA is crucial. n/t

-Laelth

[yortsed snacilbuper]

19. I drove through Greene Co. and Washington Co. Pennsylvania yesterday,

where I was born, only saw one little tRump sign and that is in coal country, so that might be a good omen?

[Laelth]

22. I've seen conflicting reports about PA.

But Biden is a native son, and, truth be told, I am expecting a blue tsunami. I think that Biden will carry PA and win the election, but I am not taking anything for granted at this point.

-Laelth

[Boogiemack]

5. Trimp's delimma : Pick a Latina to win FL or piss off his anti-hispanic voters?

Am I missing something? If a Democratic President were going to choose a Latina, just think about all those fear-mongering ads the GOP and Trump would be putting out about more caravans coming to the US and replacing ANTIFA with M13 gangs. What will they choose to believe now?

Looks to me like expansion of the Courses at two levels will be in the making if Dems win WH and Senate.

[Thekaspervote]

6. Biden is at 49.7 in both NH & PA on 538 So yes, he is at 50%. As far as Fl, we don't need FL to win

It would be nice...but

PA & NH will go to Biden. They have only voted once for a repuke in the lat 24 yrs

https://adobeindd.com/view/publications/63bc59bd-7b47-4c04-bd20-c6e7dbb9221f/1/publication-web-resources/pdf/Presidential_Voting_by_State_(1992-2016).1.pdf

The Economist gives Biden an 80% chance of winning PA and 87% chance in NH

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/new-hampshire

[berni_mccoy]

8. 49.7 is less than 50. More so when you count MoE

He needs to greater than 50 in the polls to ensure Trump can’t win. And if your Trump and can change it by just focusing on three states then that’s what you do. Biden’s lead is has been decreasing in these states not improving.

[berni_mccoy]

9. Also I would point out that MI was blue until 2016.

The argument that these states are blue or red for a long time is not relevant.

[DemsIn2020]

10. I am from Pa..

I don't go past State College much so hopefully it's different past there, but West is total Trump. It's worst then 2016 IMO.

[durablend]

15. central PA is disgusting for the most part

*Some* intelligence, but still way too much "Trump".

[DeminPennswoods]

18. The problem is outside of the south central counties

and State College, the rest of the counties are very lightly populated. I doubt there are more Trump votes to be found there than he got in 2016. He's trying to goose turnout in Westmoreland county, but I don't think there's many more votes to be had there either.

If turnout in Philadelphia comes close to matching the rest of state, it won't even be a close contest. BTW, Philadelphia will count its absentee ballots 24/7 in shifts until it's done, so there won't be a wait for results.

[DeminPennswoods]

16. Here in western PA,

it's pretty conservative, but there's Allegheny county to help balance things. My county has been voting R for awhile although Gov Wolf did win it in 2018. I expect to see Trump signs around, but I've been suprised by the number of Biden yard signs out. It's not even of course, but there are Biden signs in places where I haven't expected it.

There also seems to be some enthusiasm for a Dem state house candidate in the HD abutting mine. Usually the Dem part of that district doesn't turn out, but perhaps this will change. In a switch, the down ballot race might end up helping Biden more with better turnout.

Even though people here vote, the fact is western PA is losing population. One only need look at the number of daily obits in the local papers. 2/3rds of the state's population lives in Harrisburg and east.

[FakeNoose]

30. Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) here...

... we're straight blue all the way. I haven't seen any Chump signs yet, at least none on the Northside. The only Chump signs I've seen were in my sister's neighborhood in Westmoreland County, but way fewer than the last election.

If yardsigns are an indication of how people are really voting, Chump will lose for sure. I think maybe people aren't so bold as put a Biden sign out in their yard, but that's OK as long as they show up and vote for him.

[moonscape]

26. My cousin in Doylestown said he's seeing more

Biden signs springing up in red Bucks County.

[FM123]

11. While I have some fears about the dirty tricks DeSatan & Lee could pull down here in FL

The math could still work out for us. Even if you just add up the big counties in south and central FL, there are more registered Dems than repugs. The folks who jump up and down and scream wearing their stupid red maga hats can't vote if they are not actually registered to do so. It could go either way, but let's not rule FL out just yet.

Miami-Dade 623,613 Dems, 399,525 repubs
Broward 619,292 Dems, 257,991 repubs
Palm Beach 421,393 Dems, 280,517 repubs
Hillsborough 356,222 Dems, 280,849 repubs
Orange 360,090 Dems, 213,092 repubs


https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reportsxlsx/voter-registration-by-county-and-party/

[berni_mccoy]

14. Even if Biden Wins FL, do you think Trump will allow it to stand?

He will challenge the results in these states.

[FM123]

21. That is 270 million dollar question.

While the math looks doable for us - more registered Dems than repubs in the state, the highest number of Puerto Ricans residing in any of the 50 states (a million), Bloomberg sending 16 million dollars to pay off fines so ex-felons can vote, our kids from Parkland who have aged into powerful voters, angry Cuban-Americans (trump registered trademark to open casinos in Cuba in 2008, also sent Manafort to meet with Fidel's son in 2017) - I think the answer is yes team trump will try, but will they succeed? IDK

[RhodeIslandOne]

12. Trump is not winning New Hampshire

He didn't last time so how does he win it now?

And 7 points undecided all breaking for one candidate?

[berni_mccoy]

13. I didn't say he was.

I said he would focus on these three states. If it's close, he can challenge it, especially if Barr drums up an case that another government interfered there.

[Roland99]

17. PA/OH/MI and no FL still wins

There are various combinations that don't include AZ or IA or GA or NC

a mixing of PA/FL along with OH/MI/WI

Link to tweet

And this:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=14115304

[Rice4VP]

20. NH has 4 electoral votes...totally irrelevant

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Arizona, and Minnesota

[Stallion]

23. The Entire Election Could turn on the Maine 2nd District with 1 Electoral Votes

several scenarios I've found very plausible gets Biden to 269 and needing the Maine 2nd District

[Rice4VP]

36. I play with this map at least once a day

https://www.270towin.com/maps/blank-2020-electoral-map

I give Biden:
Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, Arizona Michigan, NH, Wisconsin, Virginia, and all of Maine. That gives him exactly 270

Sometimes I add Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Texas, and Georgia.

[rockfordfile]

27. NH does matter

[Statistical]

24. The nice thing is Biden can win without PA or FL.

It is a faster shorter night if we wins PA and if he wins FL Trump is likely dead on arrival. However FL has screwed over Dems in every race it could matter so I am going to assume Trump wins it.



Still this shows Biden doesn't need either state. I put down both NE-2 and ME-2 but he really only need ones to reach 270.

[Awsi Dooger]

29. Biden without Florida or Pennsylvania has almost no chance

Stop kidding yourself. These are not independent variables. If something causes Florida and Pennsylvania to tilt toward Trump that means there is a national influence pushing other states as well.

We would never win North Carolina or Georgia or Texas or Iowa or Ohio if Pennsylvania leaves.

Florida is the critical state. I wish everyone here would stop pretending Biden can win easily even without Florida. Nate Silver mentioned recently that Trump becomes 55% likely to be re-elected if he carries Florida. That is due to the same dynamic that I mentioned earlier...Florida shifting that way means there are other shifts as well.

[kwolf68]

31. These are great points

So wouldn't current poll trends in red states like Iowa, Georgia, etc. show that trend is pushing toward Biden? I mean Biden is in a dead heat in both those states with Trump, which tells me those other battleground states should -at current and yes things can change- are looking great for Biden.

I also don't think Florida is as much of a barometer for the Dems as it is for the Repukes. A close loss in Florida would not be unheard of and wouldn't necessarily indicate Michigan or PA is in great peril.

I am a PA voter and yes the center of our state is nothing but Trump, but that's not where the population is. I think we're good here AT THIS TIME, all local polling I've seen shows Biden in solid shape, though not good enough to fall asleep.

[Locutusofborg]

25. Its very simple...

Win the exact same states that Obama won twice and that Clinton also won and win back Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that Obama won twice and Clinton barely lost. Arizona would just be icing on the cake.
WA, OR, CA, NV, HI, CO, NM, MN, WI, IL, MI, VA, PA, NY, DE, MD, DC, VT, NH, ME, MA, RI, CT, NJ plus AZ for the icing equals Biden 290 electoral votes to 248 for Trump,

[Tarc]

28. "NH is Republican Controlled"

What is your metric for this?

We hold the state Senate and House, the Governor's Council, both national House and Senate seats.

Gov Sununu is the oddball.

[berni_mccoy]

32. Secretary of State is an R and that role counts the votes

[Tarc]

34. Bill Gardner is fine

He is one of the increasingly-rare decent Republicans, every Democratic governor we've had in the last 40 years has wanted to keep him in place. There will no shenanigans or Trump-humping in his office.

[berni_mccoy]

35. That's good to hear

[yortsed snacilbuper]

33. I live in Crafton Heights (Pittsburgh Pa.),

I haven't seen any tRump yard signs around here, Biden/Harris signs are beginning to sprout up, Pittsburgh seems to be going all out for Biden/Harris.

[berni_mccoy]

37. I'm telling ya, he's going for PA.

He just tweeted about it tonight

Link to tweet

[kwolf68]

38. He is going for it by chicanery

Live in South Hills of Pittsburgh here, it's way for Biden, but it was also for Hillary too, but I don't know if it's more this time, I know it's not less, can't be. Participation will be key, GOTV. Good thing is my older son who voted for Trump is safely tucked away in California where he can do no more harm (he really thought it was a joke to do that, he has NO right wing views honestly). And to make matters better, while one less Trump voter is off the rolls with him, my daughter is set to cast her first ballot this year and it sure as hell won't be for Biden. She isn't really political, but she values decency, compassion, loves animals and has several gay friends and it has been explained that their rights (as well as her rights as a young women) are now under full frontal attack.