Trump is in a horrible electoral position
We are 6 weeks from the election and the overall state of the race is about the same as it has been since.... probably spring 2019 when Biden announced his candidacy. Like all of you I read the daily articles about what Trump can do to win or how this event is making a loss more likely. But in the end, when you think about everything that has to happen for Trump to close the gap with Biden, something he has been completely unable to do for some 520 days in a row now (not an exaggeration, that is how long Bidens streak has been leading in the national polls), and everything that is working against him, his reelection seems nearly impossible.
In fact, Trump's best hope is to pull close to even and then win by razor thin margins. That is his best scenario. But think about all of the events that would need to happen and issues he would have to overcome in less than 6 weeks. Again, something he has been unable to do for over a year and a half.
1. He has to steal a lot of voters that have been backing Biden for over 500 days. Based on the polls and previous elections that is winning over millions, even over 10 million Biden voters in the next few weeks. Or there would need to be millions of "secret Trump voters" that aren't showing up in polls or voter registration data
2. He needs to overcome the massive Democratic advantage in early voting by having almost unheard of election day turn out
3. He has to also hope that the polls are very, very wrong. People point to 2016 but even then they were only off by the margin of error. And pollsters now weigh trump leaning voters heavier than they did in 2016. So even though polling methods are more favorable to detecting trump support, not less than in 2016, the errors need to be way, way, way larger in Trump's favor in 2020.
4. Any Russian interface and voter suppression they may be counting on needs to be orders of magnitude more effective than in 2016. And that would have to overcome how hyper aware people are to such problems in 2020.
5. Trump needs to somehow close this huge polling gap with almost no money while Biden has about $100 million he can spend every week until the end of the election
6. You can also add in issues of Trump and Trump campaign incompetence, the unpopularity of the supreme court fight, the increasing threat of an immanent COVID spike and economic collapse.
All of these things need to go Trump's way, somehow, and even then his best chance is winning by one of the closest electoral vote margins in American history. If they aren't terrified over at Trump HQ then they are clearly delusional.
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As crummy and unfair as that is, that’s where this election will be decided.
The “perennial” swing states are Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, with Arizona added this time.
As those states go, so goes the 2020 election. Which is why the EC has to GO!