*Biden's advantage grows nationally and in key states with the news of RBG's passing*

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Biden now leads by 9 points nationally (51% to 42%), a 3 point shift in margin towards Biden over two weeks. This is Biden’s best performance nationally since late June at the height of the historic George Floyd protests, and is reasonably assumed to be a reaction to the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Trump’s favorability has also taken a hit while opinions of Biden have improved. Nationally, Trump’s favorability is +16 net unfavorable (down from +13 net unfavorable two weeks ago), and opinions of Biden are net-neutral (48% favorable, 48% unfavorable), a 6 point shift over two weeks.

In the battleground, Biden maintains his advantage across all six of these states Trump carried in 2016.

https://changeresearch.com/post/states-of-play-battleground-wave-14/

[lagomorph777]

1. David Gergen said RBG's passing would be very bad news for Reptilicans.

It looks like he was correct.

[Rule of Claw]

2. This means the freshest

data from AZ and FL actually show Biden increasing support. ABC was 9 15-20, this is 18-20, and FL St. Pete Polls is 21-22.

All good news.

I feel much better than a few hours ago.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Every poll is a data point. I suggest you look at the 538 average

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Meh Change Research is a very poor poll.

I'd rather be up in the ABC poll and down in these ones than the other way around.

[Loki Liesmith]

6. Change research has had a small anti Biden house effect

So these results are surprisingly good. But they run hot and cold in quality.

Throw it on the average.

[DrToast]

21. They're not a great pollster, BUT

If their polls show movement over their prior polls, you can still consider that as a good sign.

[Loki Liesmith]

5. Fair warning: bad PA poll coming from them tomorrow

This outfit is inconsistent. We need more PA polling.

[Rule of Claw]

7. Bad poll from who?

PA is in this poll release, 49-45 Biden. Consistent with a 7-9 point Biden lead nationally. https://changeresearch.com/post/states-of-play-battleground-wave-14/

[Loki Liesmith]

8. Change research

It will be Biden +1-ish in tomorrow’s release

[Loki Liesmith]

9. Oh maybe not

I saw a tweet from their comms person putting PA at Biden +1 this morning and that poll would be released tomorrow

But they just released a PA poll today at Biden +4

[Rule of Claw]

10. That would be highly strange

if a polling outfit leaked its own release a day early. Even stranger if they undercut their own poll release from a day earlier.

[Loki Liesmith]

13. See below

Baldwin Wallace Uni Great Lakes poll.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. That's the Great Lakes poll

Link to tweet

[Loki Liesmith]

12. Oh that does suck then

Boo

[Rule of Claw]

14. Couple of things-

1. Tied in OH and PA is highly unlikely. Tied in OH means 4-6 pt lead in PA. In line with other polls.

2. My opinion is I find it unprofessional to be giving updates on a poll before final results are in. Because you don't constantly weigh the poll as you absorb the data. Last night she says leads within MOE in PA OH but not she says tied and plus 1? So what if the final results show a Biden SURGE. Ridiculous. You collect data, you weigh data, you release data. This much self promotion is at the least, not industry standard.

[Rule of Claw]

16. Also this poll

has previously shown Trump leading PA. Taken against previous polling it would actually be an improvement for Biden.

Not going to give it much weight either way.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. I noticed that too. Yesterday she said Biden led in OH. Now she's saying they're tied.

Throw it in the trash!

[Rule of Claw]

19. Ya I mean each day has about 150 responses per state maybe.

So if the final results "trickle in" say, 50 people, but randomly 30 of them are Biden, that might swing the poll 2 percent. But then you have to weigh. We agree: disregard.

[Eid Ma Clack Shaw]

20. Yep!

Tied in Ohio means comfortable Biden elsewhere in the Midwest unless there’s something unprecedented going on.

From all I’ve seen so far this year, this is a remarkably stable race. Despite an extremely stable national race, my suspicion is that pollsters are being incredibly cautious in battleground states. It, quite frankly, reminds me of 2012, where almost everything - state, national, you name it - was just a bit off in Obama’s favour, while showing him ahead on average. I don’t think it ever seemed rational that he’d dip enough to lose, yet it was constantly portrayed as a race that would be a squeaker; Obama winning the EC while losing the popular vote was mooted by some!

By polling day that year, Romney’s probability of victory on 538 had slipped to under 10%, right down from 30ish only a week or two prior. I would not be at all surprised to similar this time around - today, Biden would win 77% of the time. I don’t think we’ll see Trump with 1 in 3 odds this time around, put it that way.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. Trump won OH by 9 and PA. by .005 in 016

No way are both states essentially even no.

[Loki Liesmith]

23. I don't really believe the result

Bc PA is about 4-5 left of OH. Not looking forward to the Doomers tomorrow is all

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. It was nearly nine points left of OH in 016

[Rule of Claw]

26. Sooners?

[Loki Liesmith]

28. Doomers

Autocorrect

[Eid Ma Clack Shaw]

27. Final Great Lakes Poll Results:

Link to tweet

?s=21

[Amishman]

15. overall good polls, but one nauseating detail buried in there

"Biden and Democrats are more trusted to appoint the next Supreme Court Justice. Nationally, Biden and Democrats are preferred 54% to 46% and in the battleground, 51% to 49%."

That is a sadly tight margin.

[Rule of Claw]

17. It about matches the final vote projection

I have. 54-45 Biden, National.

[uponit7771]

22. K&R, RBG's death might be the birth of a new era of democracy in America ... lets see

[Quixote1818]

29. Some states are already starting to vote. Could this mean undecided voters are breaking to Biden? nt