BTRTN Election Snapshot: Democrats' Odds of a Trifecta Continue to Rise Slightly
Born To Run The Numbers with its latest, up-to-the-minute analysis of the national races, including all the latest polling for President and forecasts for the Senate and the House:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/09/btrtn-election-snapshot-democrats-odds.html
Excerpts: "The political landscape in the stretch drive to Election Day has been utterly upended by the death of revered liberal Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and the ensuing GOP rush-to-confirm hyper-hypocrisy led by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Or has it? We’ll see...
"But as of now, early polling indicates the Republican’s about-face in filling this seat after refusing to consider Barack Obama’s pick in 2016 is not helping them one bit -- and may even be hurting. There have been at least three polls that indicate the plurality, if not the majority of Americans oppose Trump naming Ginsberg’s successor rather than the November winner – Morning Consult has it at 50/37, YouGov at 51/42, and Ipsos/Reuters has it all the way up to 62/23. In each poll, the independents reflect the overall figures...
"Trump strategists will argue that the court battle changes the dominant subject of the campaign from COVID-19, a terrible issue for Trump and the GOP (polls indicate that American disapprove of Trump’s handling of COVID-19 by a 56/40 margin) to a more favorable one, filling the courts with conservative judges. But the Biden camp is already turning the SCOTUS issue into a health care issue, another terrible topic for Trump and the GOP, who have never put forward a plan to replace Obamacare...
"As of this moment, the Democrats have a very good chance of pulling off a 'trifecta' – Joe Biden winning the presidency, the Democrats flipping the Senate, and also maintaining control of the House. At this stage, we see Biden with an 82% chance of winning the presidency, up a tick mark since last week’s 81%.
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