Impending SCOTUS Fight Could Split the Trump Coalition

[babylonsister]

https://cookpolitical.com/node/5836


National Politics
Impending SCOTUS Fight Could Split the Trump Coalition
David Wasserman
September 19, 2020


In the hours since Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's passing, several analysts have speculated the new, colossal Supreme Court fight will help President Trump by rallying traditional GOP voters behind him and shifting the focus of 2020 from the mismanagement of COVID-19 to a more straightforward partisan cage match.

That's possible, but given the likelihood of the court to take a sharp right turn, a pre-election Supreme Court fight carries much bigger risks for Trump than the Brett Kavanaugh brawl in 2018.

Namely, there's potential for the Roe v. Wade/abortion issue and the Affordable Care Act to drive a wedge in Trump's coalition. In 2016, much of his support came from voters who disliked Hillary Clinton, liked Trump's rhetoric on trade and immigration, but consider themselves pro-choice — especially non —evangelcial, blue-collar women. And, these voters remain up for grabs in 2020.

snip//

The populist message Republicans should be most scared of probably goes something like: "In 2016, Trump promised to drain the swamp. Instead, he became the swamp: he let Mitch McConnell and stock-dumping, ultra-far right GOP senators write his entire domestic agenda." But today, few ads by Biden or Democratic outside groups have attempted to make this link.

It's also not clear groups like the Lincoln Project, whose ads mainly feature over-the-top anti-Trump messaging that amounts to political porn for base Democrats and "Never Trump" Republicans, understand this type of swing voter.

The bottom line: the millions of Obama-to-Trump voters who will decide the 2020 election in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and elsewhere tend to tune out attacks on Trump as a divisive or bad person. But they've long despised McConnell, "establishment" Republicans and the religious right — and a SCOTUS fight gives Democrats an opportunity to rip Trump's coalition open.

[customerserviceguy]

1. It would not be so contentious

if Lagoa was given the nomination. She doesn't have a track record on abortion.