Pro Tip- Polls, Correlation, and Working Backwards From The Popular Vote.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Some states are highly correlated. For instance, I would look somewhat askance at a poll that had Biden up 9 in Wisconsin and up 2 in Pennsylvania. Also, it's best to match state polls to national polls and work backward. In no likely universe of voters could Biden be up nationally by 7 and the race be a dead heat in WI, MI, and PA. Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1 points and lost WI, PA, and MI by a half a percent or so.


AND

For best reliability, wouldn't you need to compare state/national polls from same outlet

-Fiendish Thingy

[Moostache]

1. After 2016, I trust exactly ZERO polls for ANYTHING...

Not one of them is worth the lint off of my taint.

[BannonsLiver]

4. I don't typically like anti science posts

But yours made me chuckle. And I think you may be underestimating the value of your taint lint.

[Rule of Claw]

2. This 100!

If Joe is up 7, figure he is up 5 or so in PA and 4 in FL, up ten, which is becoming clearer he is, 7 in PA 6-7 in FL. In every poll he is outperforming Hillary with whites by about 5 points by each state, almost all of it from college educate whites, although he is showing some improvement in non-college as well.

My own evaluation of FL is that right now he would win 52-47.

[Rule of Claw]

3. Likely voters screens are being used

and as Democrats actually vote they will be counted as LVs, whereas before they may not. So the polls should only improve from here.

Also, last minute breaks tend to favor the challenger. So if you are down 10 points six weeks out as an incumbent, figure on losing by 12 or so.

[Yavin4]

5. You make a very good point. Let's look at the MidWest...

PA, WI, MI, IN, ILL, OH, IA, and MN. The "Big Ten" if you will.

ILL and IN are polar opposites. ILL is a super blue state, and IN is a super red state. They're correlated in the opposite direction of each other. If a Republican or a Democrat were doing well in both states, then that candidate is on his/her way to a blowout win in the nation.

IA and OH lean Republican. If a Democrat is tied or in the lead in either state, that Democrat is on his/her way to winning overall in the nation. These are states that a Republican candidate should win outright without even campaigning in them.

PA, WI, MI, and MN are true swing states in that we've seen Republicans and Democrats win state offices for governor and senator over the years. If a Democrat leads in four of these states, then that Democrat will be elected president.

Right now, Biden is well ahead in ILL and predictably behind in IN. He's tied in IA and slightly ahead in OH. Finally, he has solid leads in the four swing states.

The polls are telling us that Biden is on his way to a resounding win.

[Fiendish Thingy]

6. For best reliability, wouldn't you need to compare state/national polls from same outlet? Nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Yes. That's another tip