Bingo -Biden up to 78 at 538

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

[awesomerwb1]

2. Anybody remember how Clinton was doing at this stage in 2016?

[Johnny2X2X]

13. She was up about a point and half in the polls

Predictor was probably in the mid 50s, but she would rise after the Access Hollywood tape.

[bgramer]

3. Meaningless

With all due respect, as of late, national polls are meaningless. What counts is getting out the vote to ensure we have at least "50%+1" or whatever is the meaningful difference in all the districts that matter to get the electoral votes.

[BannonsLiver]

4. Sigh

It’s clear you know literally nothing about their model. But beyond that, this stuff WILL be discussed by people who are interested in data and polling. If that is so upsetting maybe just keep scrolling. Plenty of other threads to work through 2016 PTSD issues.

[DemsIn2020]

14. They are meaningless to be honest..

They are straight polls, everyone knows Joe is going to win straight, but the election won't be straight. Trump will cheap, intimidate, and then get his cronies to award him after he yells about fraud.

No poll takes that into account, why right now I am more into the senate races. I expect Trump to cheat and to try to stay in power.

[BannonsLiver]

15. ...

[USALiberal]

8. Nice try! nt

[YessirAtsaFact]

10. It's not meaningless. There were 15% or more undecided voters at this stage in 2016

Now, it's more like 4-8%.

Look at the number of polls where Biden is already at 50% or more.

Hillary never polled over 50% in as many states as Biden is.

If this scenario holds and there is anything close to a fair count, Biden wins.

[obamanut2012]

12. hahhahahhahahahah

shoo

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. An NBA player has a 50% chance of hitting a thirty five foot shot.

He either makes it or he doesn't.

[budkin]

5. Good news to counter the crappy A+ AZ and FL polls

Those were outliers but they still piss me off.

[Fiendish Thingy]

6. Woo how!

To be honest, I would expect this gradual increasing of Biden’s odds, as long as polling remains as stable as it has, and with the decreasing time until Election Day.

[dawg day]

7. I'm not going to feel comfortable till it's 98%...

Not even then, because I heard that Rove or some other ratfcker is game-planning how to get GOP state legislatures to disallow Dem electors if Biden wins their state and force the GOP electors in, and I'm nervous again.

That would lead to violent riots, I think.

But if Biden wins most of the swing states, and Florida comes in Biden early, well, I hope it all goes through. I just can't believe the GOP would be so suicidal. This is democracy. Sometimes you lose! And sometimes (Gore and Clinton), you WIN and the rules say you lose, and you accept it because democracy is more important than your victory.

But for Trump and the Trumpist Party Previously Known as the GOP, NOTHING is more important than Trump "winning". They would consign the democracy and constitutions and free-and-fair elections to the bonfire for this vicious stupid thug of a wannabe dictator.

[mshasta]

9. they said the same with Hillary

GOTV ---

[obamanut2012]

11. Yup, several days at 76, only TWO days mainly at 77, and now NOOM!

I want it 85% by October 7.