ME-02, MI-08, MI-11, PA-08: Confident DCCC cancels ad buys for some Dems.
ME-02, MI-08, MI-11, PA-08: This week, the Republican ad tracking firm Medium Buying reported that the DCCC had scaled back its TV reservations in three markets where Democrats are on defense, which appears to be good news for Team Blue. We've added this information to our Daily Kos Elections 2020 House race triage tracker, which we'll be continuously updating over the next six weeks.
Medium tweeted that the committee was "canceling TV ad schedules" that were booked for the Wilkes-Barre media market, which includes one contested seat, Pennsylvania's 8th District. A source familiar with Democratic media buys confirms to Daily Kos Elections that the DCCC's entire $400,000 reservation has been cut.
This suggests that Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright, who is defending an ancestrally blue seat that flipped to Donald Trump in 2016 but moved back to the left in 2018, is in good shape against Republican Jim Bognet. Major GOP outside groups have yet to book any ad time to aid Bognet, which also indicates that Team Red doesn't feel optimistic here. The D-Trip's allies at House Majority PAC, though, have spent or reserved $1.4 million here, so it's not acting like this contest is over.
Medium also reported that the DCCC was "canceling TV ad schedules they had booked in Maine." However, the firm did not say how much the committee's $1.4 million reservation in the 2nd District had been reduced by, and we've been unable to confirm any details.
If accurate, though, it would indicate that D.C. Democrats are confident about Democratic Rep. Jared Golden's prospects in a seat that supported Trump 51-41 but where Golden has decisively led Republican Dale Crafts in several recent polls. This is also another contest where major Republican groups haven't booked any ad time.
Golden's allies at End Citizens United, though, recently launched a $400,000 ad campaign while HMP has spent or reserved $2.3 million in this contest, so there's still plenty of activity taking place here. Both presidential campaigns are targeting this seat in order to win this electoral vote as well, and Trump's spending could end up giving the entire Republican ticket, including Crafts, a boost.
Finally, Medium said the DCCC was "canceling one set of the TV ad schedules they had booked in the Detroit DMA -- Leaving in place another set." The Detroit media market is home to two competitive districts, Michigan's 8th and 11th, which both flipped to the Democrats in 2018. The committee had reserved $2.2 million in Detroit, possibly to be shared across both races. However, we're told that the DCCC has canceled its full reservation for the 11th District and part of its booking for the 8th District, though again, it's not clear how much money it's keeping in play here.
HMP still has $5.3 million booked in Detroit, and this week, the group launched a joint $880,000 buy with the League of Conservation Voters targeting Republican Paul Junge in the 8th District. The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund also has $2.4 million reserved in this market.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/9/23/1979727/-Morning-Digest-One-of-our-favorite-political-attacks-just-resurfaced-and-it-s-about-Noah-s-ark#13