Nate Silver: One thing Democrats could do--with basically no strategic downside...

[Nevilledog]

Link to tweet

Tweet text: One thing Democrats could do—with basically no strategic downside—is to hammer home the message that voters should ask for and return their mail ballots as early as possible, which makes it more likely they'll be included in tallies on election night.

[Blue Owl]

1. K&R

[mucifer]

2. We are already on it. I keep hearing that over and over

[spanone]

24. ⇧⇧⇧⇧⇧⇧⇧⇧⇧⇧⇧⇧⇧⇧⇧⇧⇧⇧⇧⇧⇧⇧⇧⇧

Wake up Nate

[List left]

34. The more it is said the better...some need more reminders & encouragement than others

[dalton99a]

3. Do it ASAP

[sandensea]

29. Amazing isn't it. Time flies!

[soldierant]

56. Of course this is on the assumptione that

the state one is in has not established it as firm procedure that mailed ballots are counted last.

In that case, mailing them in in droves is counterproductive, and if one can vote early in person by surrendering the unvoted mail ballot, that would be the thing.

I'm in Colorado, which is an all-mail state, and I certainly plan to get mine in as early as I can, to a drop off box or an county election site, myself.

[mzmolly]

4. Exactly!

I hand delivered my ballot yesterday.

[lame54]

5. Thanks Nate - they've been doing it for weeks

[MissMillie]

6. AND to remind people to ask for

PROVISIONAL BALLOTS if they encounter trouble at their polling location.

[Wounded Bear]

7. Kind of tardy to the party, Nate. They've been on it...

[spooky3]

55. +1

[Sherman A1]

8. KnR

[Trumpocalypse]

18. FYI

[bamagal62]

9. We've decide to vote in person.

However, we applied for a mail in ballot and officials are recommending to wait until
That ballot arrives before choosing to vote in person. Apparently, it’s causing some difficulty at the early voting sites. We are in Chicago.

[russ1943]

20. Not a good idea, IMO

9. We've decide to vote in person.

However, we applied for a mail in ballot and officials are recommending to wait until
That ballot arrives before choosing to vote in person. Apparently, it’s causing some difficulty at the early voting sites. We are in Chicago.


That sounds suspiciously like the advice Trump conservatives are promoting. The officials recommending this approach are creating a sham basis for questioning whether or not you are voting twice. In Michigan there are procedures for insuring one vote only in this scenario but what you describe creates more problems than it solves.

[MagickMuffin]

21. They will have to surrender their mail in ballot before receiving one at the polls

So, that is why they are being advised to wait for the mail in ballot, so that they surrender the ballot and they get a new one.

Nothing suspicious about it. I've worked elections and if someone comes in that has received a mail in ballot and we tell them they have to surrender their ballot, if they do not produce their mail in ballot, then they do not receive a ballot.

[shrike3]

35. Yes, I've also worked elections and there's a procedure for it.

In our state, ballots must be surrendered, paperwork filled out.

[Pobeka]

37. What happens: mail in ballot is not recieved, they show up in person?

How can you surrender a ballot if it is still in transit from USPS? Surely this situation is covered?

[MagickMuffin]

38. If they do not surrender their ballot, they can still vote provisionally

That's how we do it in Texas. No surrendered ballot, provisional only.

[orleans]

58. regarding provisional ballots

i've heard some states you have a limited number of days after election to go into the election office to complete the provisional ballot process.

if people are voting with a provisional ballot they need to ask what they have to do follow up with in order for the ballot to be counted

i just tried looking it up for illinois and found this:
When should a voter cast a provisional ballot?
A provisional ballot must be offered to a voter when:

Election judges have no record of the individual,
A voter's voting status has been successfully challenged,
A voter did not provide identification when registering by mail,
A court order extends the time for closing the polls,
The voter’s name appears on the list of voters who voted during early voting, or
The voter received a mail ballot but did not return the ballot.

What is the process for provisional voting?
The voter must fill out a ballot application. They must sign an affidavit stating the reason for the provisional ballot. The voter receives a correct ballot and a special envelope. After the vote is cast, the ballot is sealed in the special envelope. The voter must submit more information within 2 days.

[MagickMuffin]

59. That's pretty close to Texas law. However, we get 6 days to go to the Election Office.

No one working the polls likes provisional ballots.

Our special bag for provisional ballots is a bright orange. After the polls close we have to account for all provisional ballots and then it gets sealed with a special identification tag that has a number code on it which has to match the paper work. When returning supplies the election officials require the provincial ballot envelop first. Never understood why, but I suppose it's to keep them separate from the rest of the sealed ballots.

Whenever we would inform the voter about going to the Election Office most of them would scoff at the idea of the inconvenience of verifying that their vote would be counted. Some simply would refuse to fill out the forms and just leave.

Now that we can vote anywhere in the county, there could be less provisional ballots. Most people that required one were at the wrong precinct. It was really sad seeing so many people not even knowing where they were suppose to vote.

I won't be working the election this year.

[spooky3]

47. Agreed. This is exactly what I did last week. I handed them the unopened absentee ballot and my ID

and they gave me the in-person ballot, which I completed and put through the scanner.

A short time later, I went to the elections website and it correctly indicated that the absentee ballot had been surrendered and that my in-person vote had been recorded.

[Pacifist Patriot]

30. I've been doing this for years with no problem whatsoever.

I take my mail-in ballot to my polling place, hand it over to the poll worker and they exchange it for the in-person ballot. Piece of cake.

[panader0]

33. Two years ago when I voted in the midterms, I forgot that I had asked for a mail-in ballot.

When I showed up to vote in person I was given a provisional ballot. It took a bit of time to fill it out.
The thing is, I think that sometimes provisional ballots get "lost". My last vote, in the primaries was
mail-in, and cast at a collection box. I checked on line a few days later and it had been received and
counted. I'm pretty sure most states, if not all, have a web site where you can check your vote. Do that,
and if it hasn't been counted before the election day, go vote in person. These repub bastards will do
whatever they can to fuck up the vote.

[napi21]

50. Ga. does. It's great. We're both in our late 70s & have been voting absentee for quite a few years

Never had any probs. IWe DO however send ours in early. I believe it's always better to take advantage of the slower time for processing. Things always get crazy at the last minute, people are all in a hurry & some boss is always on your back to "hurry up, damn it" And mistakes are made.

[russ1943]

62. Not a good idea, IMO

NYT https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/27/upshot/election-results-timing.html

"Usually the number of provisional votes is not large enough to be significant, but there is evidence from early voting that this election may be different. Some voters in at least 22 states are required to vote provisionally if they initially request a mail ballot but decide to vote in person instead (other states have different methods to prevent voting twice). Provisional voting can slow down lines at the polls, and those ballots are generally the last to be reviewed and counted, sometimes weeks after the election."

[catrose]

10. Mine arrived in the mail yesterday, and I'll hand it in in person

[KS Toronado]

11. In Kansas they mail out mail-in ballots two weeks before the election

I'll be going to a drop off box with ours. Don't trust the post office this election!

[shrike3]

36. In our state, you can take it to the County Board of Elections office.

Which is what I did during the primary.

[Indykatie]

12. I Was Pleasantly Surprised to Get My Mail Ballot in 7 days in Indiana

It took much longer for my Primary Mail Ballot which arrived much closer to election day. I didn't trust the USPS to get it back in time so I dropped it off.

[PatrickforO]

13. I think they are. I've seen and heard lots of stuff about this.

I know I'm sure talking to people about planning their vote and dropping the ballots off at the earliest possible moment.

[RussellCattle]

14. The message bears repeating. Thanks Nate, we all should be repeating it. I'll do my part here....

....by saying "We should all ask for and return our ballots as early as possible". There you go. You're welcome.

[BadgerMom]

15. Spread this far and wide!

[lindalou65]

16. Good reminder for us all!

Thanks Nevilledog for posting this. I posted Nate's tweet on Facebook and will keep reminding people as I can. I am fortunate to live in Colorado which is a vote by mail state. As soon as I receive my ballot (by mid-October), I will fill it out and take it directly to the Clerk & Recorder's office in Boulder. They, in turn, will confirm that my ballot was received and processed --- usually a quick turnaround.

[bucolic_frolic]

17. It's weak sauce, but with no downside

and it's important to put up a good showing on Election Night apparently. After all Trump's whining, it would be amazing if Trump has to plead for more time until his imaginary late surge is counted.

[usaf-vet]

19. ALL READY DONE. WIFE AND I VOTED DEMOCRATS TOP TO BOTTOM AND RETURNED THE BALLOTS.....

.... THE VERY NEXT DAY. 9/22/2020 our 72 year birthday present to her and the country.

[Nitram]

22. Been there, done that.

[aikoaiko]

23. Already happening Nate.

[40RatRod]

25. Last week we voted and I carried our ballots to the indoor county drop box

[DallasNE]

26. By All Means

It also removes a possible jolt by an October surprise.

They also need to spend some advertising dollars explaining how voters can go online and track where their ballot is in the process but warning it could take a week for the information to get posted.

[LAS14]

27. Which states can't start counting mail-ins till election day? It's some subset. Anyone know? nt

[Poiuyt]

31. I don't think WI starts counting until election day.

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

39. Pennsylvania is one.

Which is why SO and I are thinking of taking our Mail In vote ballot in on election day and voting in person.

We really don't want to. We have been staying away from indoor public gatherings as much as possible since the Spring. And Rs are the majority in our township and certainly will be at the polling place this year. No doubt many will be in line without masks. And won't honor physical distancing.


However, because Mail In ballots might not be counted on election day (they are supposed to start counting them, but might not finish), we're concerned about that helping RW shenanigans. Especially regarding declaring Pissolini the winner with mostly R votes being counted first, since more Ds are expected to vote by mail.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

28. When the mailed in ballots get counted depends on the state.

Some won't even start counting those until the polls close on November 3. Some will start counting them either as they come in or a week or more before November3.

I think the real cluster fucks will be with the states that don't have early voting but will be having lots of mailed in ballots this year. Pennsylvania comes to mind. They may have as many as 3 million mailed in ballots, and as it stands now will not start counting any of them until the morning of November 3. That's a state whose final results will probably take weeks to know.

[Upthevibe]

32. Kick....n/t

[marble falls]

40. I think Nate Silver got that right. Thanks!

[cab67]

41. I'm voting in person for two reasons.

First, it ‘feels’ more important that way. To me, anyway.

Second, I like to make eye contact with the elderly ‘election monitors’ who walk around or sit sternly near the polling site, sidearms in plain view. I want them to know I’m not intimidated.

[TomCADem]

42. Yup. I am personally dropping off my vote by mail ballot at my Registrar ASAP.

I am not taking any chances. I am not relying on the mail and I am not going to risk standing in line on election day. Thankfully, in California, you can turn in your vote by mail ballots with your Registrar directly.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

43. I'd go this extra step - if the ballots can be placed in an election commission drop box

...ask voters to take them directly.

That is what we plan to do. Once our ballots show up, we will fill them out and put them in the drop box at the election commission.

[C Moon]

44. We don't get our ballots in California until October.

[Cha]

45. & I got a Notice from the USPS yesterday that

says "IF You Plan to VOTE by Mail Plan Ahead"!!

[spooky3]

48. Hi, Cha! I received a similar USPS notice in VA, and a flyer from the Dem Party

saying the same thing. The Dems are already on it, so Nate should be happy about that.

[Cha]

51. Aloha, Spooky! Gave me a warm feeling that

the USPS seems to care.. in spite of the trumPROPAGANDA against Mail in Ballots.

[spooky3]

53. Very good point!

I hope all is well with you!

[sellitman]

46. I'm voting in person

I will double mask up with a shield on top and bring lots of hand cleaner.

[spooky3]

49. FWIW, when I did this last week, everyone was masked, there were socially distanced

"dots" to stand on while waiting in line, there was plexiglas at each reception booth, and there were barriers between voting booths. And hand sanitizer in several locations. Smooth as silk...

[Cha]

52. Mahalo, Spooky.. It's worth a Lot!

[spooky3]

54. Over 200000 Virginians have already voted! I hope

Things work well in Hawaii!

[NYC Liberal]

57. Ditto here.

I work in retail 8 hours a day, and where I work is very busy (even with social distancing)...so going to a polling place for a fraction of that time really can't be any worse.

[MarianJack]

60. Excellent idea.

Up here in Maine early voting starts on 10/5. My wife and son and I are planning to go up and vote that day.

IF my son votes for Dolt45 I will still love him. I'll miss him, but I'll still love him.

#notmypresident

RESIST

[WillParkinson]

61. We got our ballots and filled them out yesterday...

Paul will be taking them to work and handing them to the mail carrier tomorrow. Two blue all the way.