Here's why the latest Texas polls are so ominous for the GOP -- even if Trump wins the state
More polls on the 2020 presidential race have come in for Texas — and once again, former Vice President Joe Biden is within striking distance of President Donald Trump, who is ahead by only 3% in a New York Times/Siena poll and by 5% in a Quinnipiac poll. Texas is still in play for Biden, but even if Trump ultimately wins the Lone Star State, these polls are an ominous sign for the GOP and underscore the inroads Democrats are making in a state that Republicans can no longer take for granted.
Texas' U.S. Senate race is another ominous sign for the GOP. Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn is ahead of Democratic challenger M.J. Hegar, but only by single digits. According to polls released in September, Cornyn is winning the race by 6% (New York Times/Siena and Morning Consult), 2% (the Tyson Group), 5% (YouGov), 4% (Public Policy Polling) or 8% (Quinnipiac). If these polls are accurate, Cornyn will probably be reelected on November 3. But the very fact that Hegar is doing as well as she is in Texas is bad news for the Republican Party and demonstrates that Republicans are having to work harder in a state where they could usually count on double-digit victories back in the 1990s and 2000s.
Some pundits continue to describe Texas a "deep red state," but at this point, a more accurate description would be "light red." While Republicans still have an advantage in statewide races in Texas, that advantage is smaller than it was 20 or 30 years ago.
It isn't hard to understand why so many Democratic strategists have been pessimistic about Texas. The last Democratic nominee to win Texas in a presidential race was Jimmy Carter in 1976, and during the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, Texas was a state in which Democrats performed well at the local level but struggled badly in statewide races. Democratic strategists viewed Texas as state where Democrats were mayors or city council members and performed well in some congressional districts but struggled when it came to gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races. Democratic Texas Gov. Ann Richards was voted out of office in 1994, and the state has only had Republican governors since then.
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