What happens if Mcconnell and Graham win and we lose Doug Jones How do we wing the Senate?

[Maraya1969]

Please tell me because I keep thinking that we are in danger there. And what good is having Biden if we have the evil people in the Senate and our courts are turned against us?

[themaguffin]

1. Mitch will likely win. Doug is going to lose unfortunately.

[Ferrets are Cool]

19. I used to think that was a given. I live in the seat of red Alabama. There are

10 times more Jones signs than Tuberville. We have a chance IF everyone votes. And I am doing my best to make sure of that.

[Polybius]

21. Jones is down more than 15 points, and Trump has an approval rating over 60% there

He's not winning.

[MFM008]

24. He will

Have a place in a Biden administration.

[beachbumbob]

2. without a democratic senate, nothing Biden proposes will ever be done. PERIOD

[CrispyQ]

3. We will be severely handicapped if we don't take the Senate & keep the House.

But Biden can still do a lot of clean up and repair to the other institutions & agencies the Con took a sledge hammer to.

[dsc]

4. By winning

ME, AZ, CO (all states we are favored in) and one of NC, IA, GA, TX all of which we are within MOE on. And holding all but Jones where we are favored right now.

[dawg]

16. We actually have a chance to win *twice* in Georgia. Vote Warnock!!!

Please, Georgians, do not split our vote in the special election for Johnny Isakson's old Senate seat (currently held, due to Governor Kemp's appointment, by Kelly Loeffler). Only the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, will proceed to the runoff. And if Democrats waste their votes on Matt Lieberman or one of the other Democrats on the list (other than Raphael Warnock), we could end up with a runoff election between Loeffler and Doug Collins.

On the other hand, if Warnock does make the runoff, he stands a pretty good chance of winning. The Collins and Loeffler people are at each other's throats right now. The losers in that fight may not feel all that motivated to show up for the runoff.

[MFGsunny]

22. + 1000 n/t

[brooklynite]

32. As long as Lieberman stays in Warnock doesn't make the GA-S runoff...

...and if he does make it, he still probably loses the runoff.

[dawg]

33. I don't know ...

I live here, and the Collins and Loeffler folks are going at each other pretty hard. Some of them might just sit at home if their candidate doesn't make the runoff. RCP average has Warnock within 2% of Collins even with 10.6% of the vote being diverted to Lieberman. If we can just convince a third of his supporters to switch we have a chance.

[brooklynite]

35. The runoff will have a much lower turnout which will favor Republicans

[dawg]

37. Unless they are demoralized and are still holding a grudge against their candidate.

Also, fewer of them will have voted by mail. They'll have to make an effort to get out and go to the polls one more time just to vote for Kelly Loeffler (and we are already seeing some of their good old-fashioned misogny being directed at her). Democrats who voted by mail, on the other hand, will automatically receive a runoff ballot they can mail in or hand deliver.

This election has the *potential* for a weird outcome.

[Bev54]

34. If dems win both, one is a special election

and they can be seated right away, along with AZ. Would give the dems 2 more before the sitting of the new senate.

[Midnight Writer]

42. I'm looking for Bullock to flip Montana.

[mucifer]

5. lindsay is sinking

[MaryMagdaline]

6. We are in danger everywhere. We will play the hand we have

But I’m not evaluating that hand until November 4. Right now, I’m making my 4th weekend of calls and I’ve contributed to ActBlue and I’m walking my ballot to Supervisor of Elections. That’s the only hand I have to play.

[Ellipsis]

7. Electoral vote current senate map

https://www.electoral-vote.com/senate/

[Maraya1969]

17. And this is what they say.

In a reversal from 2018, the Republicans will be playing defense, with many more seats up than the Democrats. The good news for the GOP is that most of these are in deep red states and are considered safe.


I am not one of the people that try and make the Dems feel bad to make them lose. I just wish that some of the big donors would help out the races that are close.

[Arazi]

8. Graham is in serious trouble. I'm cautiously optimistic

#MoscowMitch will win but there are other seats that are in play that could go Dem. This SCOTUS nomination isn't the winner that Rs think it's going to be.

Joni Ernst is in trouble. McSally's definitely going to lose. Gardner, Tillis, Collins etc are all fighting for their lives.

Keep working. Donate. Volunteer. This isn't wrapped up, not by a long shot

[sweetloukillbot]

9. Arizona, Maine, Colorado, North Carolina will flip

That makes 50 if Jones loses. And we have chances in Georgia, Iowa, and apparently Mississippi now.

[Tom Rinaldo]

12. Montana also, and even Alaska. Rpublican incumbents face highly competitive opponents there too. n/t

[texasfiddler]

10. I have always assumed Doug Jones was going to lose. (I still give to him)

Last edited Sun Sep 27, 2020, 11:46 AM - Edit history (1)

The following Senators are currently winning against Republicans:

AZ - Mark Kelly - W
CO - Hickenlooper - W
ME - Gideon - W
NC - Cunningham - W

The above will give us the senate if we win the Whitehouse. Hopefully we can win at least one of the following:

MT - Bullock (tied)
IA - Greenfield (tied/small lead)
KS - Dr. Bollier (close)
AK - Dr. Gross (Left leaning independent) (tied)
GA - Ossof (close)
SC - Harrison (close)

I give to everyone each month. PRAISE BE!

[Fiendish Thingy]

11. None of those seats were forecast to take back the Senate- we will take ME, CO, AZ

With the 4th+ seats coming from most likely NC, but also Possibly GA, MT, AK, IA, and yes, SC.

[Indykatie]

13. Doug Jones is Not Included in Any Scenarios I have Seen for Dems Taking the Senate

I think it's a foregone conclusion that Jones will lose in AL. Dems still are favored to win at least a 50/50 Senate by most prognosticators. We are in good shape to win 4 seats. The 4 seats would get us a 50/50 Senate with the VP Harris being the tie breaking vote. I think 2020 will be a wave election and we'll at least 1 additional Senate seat.

Favored to Win
Maine
Arizona
North Carolina
Colorado

[StarfishSaver]

27. Neither is McGrath

[treestar]

29. it is strange in that he won in a special election

those with the lowest turnouts. And he is an incumbent. So it would seem he has a chance.

[Drunken Irishman]

43. He barely won against a pedophile.

Had he run against anyone but Moore, or had news not broke that Roy Moore was molesting children, he would have lost.

[treestar]

44. Too bad that's what it takes

To disqualify a Republican!

[Drunken Irishman]

45. At least in Alabama :(

[marble falls]

14. The biggest obstacle to winning: a big ass pile of "what ifs". McConnell and Graham ...

may or may not win re-election, either possibility is part of the equation not a roadblock.

[33taw]

15. Biden can nullify any executive order and issue

his own.

[Maraya1969]

23. And that's great. He can reinstate all those environmental disasters that #45 has implemented

[PTWB]

18. We will have a better opportunity for the senate in 2022

When there are 22 Republicans up for re-election and only 12 Democrats. Hopefully we squeeze by this year ... but if not, we have 2022.

[Celerity]

41. actually no, there are 13 (would have been 14 if Tim McGraw had run in TN) potential R to D flips in

2020. This counts all remotely possible ones.

CO
AZ
ME
NC
IA
SC
GA Regular
GA Special
KS
AK
MT

real stretches
KY
TX

TN - the 14th is probably a lost cause without Tim McGraw (he has turned down TWO chances at open seats, 2018 and now 2020, after promising for ages he would run for Senate when he was 50, and he is 53 now, grrrr, he is my number one disappointment in 2020 for Dem Senator turn-downs)


the only one we will lose in 2020 is AL with Jones


in 2022

only 4 Dems seats remotely in play although it could be 5 (GA special if Warnock pulls it off)

Colorado Michael Bennet
Nevada Catherine Cortez Masto
New Hampshire Maggie Hassan
Arizona Kelly (assuming he wins in 2020)


Vulnerable Rethugs in 2022 are less than 2020

Florida Marco Rubio
North Carolina (open seat, Burr is retiring)
Iowa Chuck Grassley (if he runs again, he will be 90 years old 9 and half months into his next term, and if not, its an open seat)
Pennsylvania Pat Toomey
Wisconsin Ron Johnson

Kentucky Rand Paul (a bit of a stretch, even though he, like McConnel, is a rat bastard)

MO and IN are lost causes I fear

so 5 or 6 (if you count the stretch Paul) chances to flip

plus GA special, if we lose it in 2020

lets call it 6 real chances (assuming Paul wins and we lose GA special in 2020)

versus the 13 (2 are big stretches) we have shots at in 2020


plus if Biden wins POTUS, the Rethugs are going to be crazy fired up, especially if we take back the Senate by 51-49, or 52-48 in 2020

[Laelth]

20. I am expecting a 53 D - 47 R Senate.

Moscow Mitch will probably win. Jones will probably lose, but we should still pick up 6 (or so) seats.



-Laelth

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

25. I'm under the impression that KS might actually be in play.

Right now the Republican has about a two point lead over the Democrat in that race.

What we can all hope for is that people who would vote Republican will be discouraged and stay home. Or be so upset with where Trump and all his cronies have gotten us, that they'll vote Democratic up and down the ballot.

[meadowlander]

26. Here's a good map:

https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/

Doug Jones is the only democratic incumbent likely to lose.

Republican incumbents like to lose are Martha McSally in Arizona and Cory Gardiner in Colorado.

Toss ups for R to D flips are Joni Ernst in Iowa, Susan Collins in Maine, Steve Daines in Montana, Thom Tillis in North Carolina.

We need to pick up five of the six to flip the Senate. We're slightly ahead in the polling in all of the toss-ups except Iowa.

[treestar]

28. Biden would veto some of their worst attempts

at changing the law. And he can undo 45's more egregious executive orders. There's always some good in having the Presidency.

[uponit7771]

30. That's better but not a win, we need the senate ASAP. Moscow Mitch will betray America some more

[33taw]

39. Biden will probably back-out any of Trump's EO regardless of whether the Democrats have the

Senate. We need the Senate to pass laws and modify the ACA.

[brooklynite]

31. We were never counting SC and KY towards our Senate majority...

Assuming we lose AL, we need 4 plus the VP:

AZ and CO are already banked

ME and NC are likely wins

AK, MT, KS and IA are in play.

[Willto]

36. In Answer to...

....this earlier comment about Doug Jones.

("it is strange in that he won in a special election those with the lowest turnouts. And he is an incumbent. So it would seem he has a chance."

I am from Alabama. Doug Jones won the special election because having three candidates in the republican primary race divided the vote and allowed Roy Moore to win that primary with much less than 50 percent of the vote. Moore is a highly divisive person who is disliked by many in the republican party here in Alabama. Then numerous credible allegations of some creepy pedophile behavior came to light prior to the general election. Even with how disliked Moore was to start with and with the allegations about stalking underage girls he still almost won. Juuusssst enough republicans stayed home and didn't vote to allow Jones to eeeck out a victory.

So, unless photos of Tuberville emerge of him going to a hotel room with a 12 year old you can forget about holding this senate seat.

[backscatter712]

38. We're likely beating Cory Gardner and Susan Collins.

They're both behind the 8-ball in their races.

As is Lindsey Graham now (cue Sarah McLachlin...)

Thom Tillis is also in trouble. As is Joni Ernst in Iowa, as is McSally in Arizona.

[lame54]

40. It will be good to have Biden regardless