Its been nearly 3 weeks since Labor Day We were all worried about surge after holiday Has it happe

[soothsayer]

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Ashish K. Jha
@ashishkjha
Its been nearly 3 weeks since Labor Day

We were all worried about surge after holiday

Has it happened?

Actually, yes

Data here pretty clear

First, here’s a graph of the number of new daily cases (y-axis) over past month

7-day moving averages

What does this mean?


Ashish K. Jha
·
Sep 26, 2020
Replying to @ashishkjha
Cases slowly declining as we entered September

Labor Day weekend 9/5-7

If holiday set off new infections...you’d expect to see cases rising 5 to 7 days later (around 9/12)

That’s exactly what we see in graph

So 2 weeks ago, we were at 34K/day

Today, at 44K/day

Up 30%

2/7

Ashish K. Jha
@ashishkjha
39 states have more cases today than just 2 weeks ago

31 states have higher % of tests returning positive

And 16 states have % test positive > 10%

That’s not great. Those 16 states are missing a lot of infections

But patterns vary across states. So let’s dive in

Ashish K. Jha
·
Sep 26, 2020
Replying to @ashishkjha
Lets start with 15 states with highest per capita new cases

ND #1 at 52 new cases /100K/d)

Others include SD, WI, UT, OK, IA, AR, MO, etc

But its not just small states

In fact, about 25% of America lives in these 15 states

How are things going here?

Not great

4/8

Ashish K. Jha
@ashishkjha
Across these 15 states:

1. New infections are up 67% in last two weeks. That a lot.

2. Their collective % of test positives is 11.6%

3. Their hospitalizations are starting to creep up

But there’s another problem – rest of the country is not doing so hot either

5/7


Ashish K. Jha
·
Sep 26, 2020
Replying to @ashishkjha
Across other 35 states:

Cases up about 11%

% of tests positive, hospitalizations flat

So, almost no one getting better but many getting worse

And, of course

Some states further easing restrictions (FL, IN, even NY)

Colleges, many businesses back, some seeing outbreaks

6/8
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Ashish K. Jha
@ashishkjha
And with colder weather, outdoor activity, which is so much safer, will get harder

This is why @IHME_UW and others predicting a bad fall/winter

But I'm a bit more optimistic

We can avoid the @IHME_UW scenario of 400K dead by January

What makes me more optimistic?

7/9

Ashish K. Jha
·
Sep 26, 2020
Replying to @ashishkjha
A bunch of things.

More testing finally coming (pretty sure)

Some policymakers are being data driven, limiting indoor gatherings

And of course, as infections rise, folks will pull back on their own

Plus -- therapies keep getting better. This allows us lower deaths

8/9
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Ashish K. Jha
@ashishkjha
Bottom line

We have a long way to go in this pandemic

Must focus on keeping infections, hospitalizations, and deaths low

Not in a good spot but we can control this

We can get through next 7-9 months until we hopefully have safe, effective vaccines widely available

9/10


Here's our charge

Avoid indoors when possible (push leaders to limit dining, bars)

When indoors are super important (schools), improve ventilation: open windows, air exchange. And wear a mask!

And democratize testing for everyone, not just well-connected.

We can do this

Fin
11:08 PM · Sep 26, 2020

[ProfessorGAC]

1. K&R!

Ashish did a nice job, here.

[DonaldsRump]

2. It didn't have to be this way

These anti-science monsters politicized basic health issues (masks and closures/limitations) and failed to do anything to stop the spread.

This was not the fault of China, the Blue States, or the people who got infected, sick, and/or died. IT IS THE FAULT OF TRUMP AND THE REPUTINCANS ALONE. Let us never forget this, and let us make sure nobody else does either.

[spanone]

3. K&R

[StClone]

4. Yes all our Hospitals are FULL...out of control here

College kids to class and Labor day gatherings, as people let down their guard. Yesterday I ventured for less than ten minutes into my nearest grocery store and counted 4 ladies without masks out of maybe 25 people. Bad.

[intheflow]

5. I keep hearing about school ventilation

relying heavily on open windows. This sounds delusional to me.
It will be below 40 degrees most days for much of the US.

[soothsayer]

6. Yeah

[Shrike47]

7. It's certainly happening in the college town I live in. Younger kids just went back to school last

week, so we’ll see what happens in a couple weeks. I’m not optimistic.

[smirkymonkey]

8. K&R

[shanti]

9. Just heard from my RW aunt and her husband

She said they'd just come off of quarantine, after having tested positive for Covid. I counted back, and they had to have caught it during that Labor Day weekend. They're in OC, late 70's and are always lunching with their evangelical church friends. Oh, and one of her friends caught it too. "But she's perfectly fine, because she has rheumatoid arthritis and takes hydroxychloroquin". Then more blather about it being politicized. She doesn't know what the big deal is, she and her husband are fine now.

Oh, and she's a RN.

[Arkansas Granny]

10. Arkansas has seen a 25% increase in the last 14 days.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/arkansas-coronavirus-cases.html

[beachbumbob]

11. In another 3 weeks all of Florida will be ground zero like New York City.

It's going to be ugly as COVID fully invades all the 55 and over communities and subdivisions

[triron]

12. Cases have more than doubled here in NM in the last week. Unfortunately some schools reopened

for partial in class instruction. I can tell people are getting more casual about not wearing masks when out hiking.
I understand restaurants are a major reason for the upsurge in new cases. Even though our governor has made good decisions on the whole I now believe she may have to backtrack. But I fear she will not respond very quickly.