538 probability of Biden winning is now 78%

[gristy]

Up from 77% earlier today. This is the highest I've ever seen it.

Fun fact: 1 of the 100 simulation results that are shown at the link shows Biden getting 510 EV and Trump 28 EV (winning just 5 states - Idaho, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Kentucky, and W. Virginia)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

[LonePirate]

1. From Silver this week: Biden's chance to win by 10+ pts is more than 45's overall chance to win

Silver gave 45 a 20-25% chance to win the election this year. He also gave Biden a 30% chance to win by 10 or more points. Guess which of those two scenarios received more discussion and coverage.

[CanonRay]

2. Let's make a pact!

Any state that goes for Trump we kick out of the union.They sink as 3rd world toilets.

[Stuart G]

3. This news about Trump & his taxes has not filtered through the country yet.

Trump is now a ...Tax Cheat....Should get to 80% in a few days....You know everyone pays more
in taxes then the ...........Tax Cheat....Tax Cheat....Tax Cheat...K and R

[radius777]

4. Biden's numbers have steadily increased

as negative stories (Atlantic story about calling the military 'suckers', Woodward tapes, Olivia Troye, etc) rained down on Trump. Now this NYT bombshell.

Biden just has to do well in the debates and this game is over. We must GOTV and take nothing for granted, especially to also strengthen our House margin and retake the Senate (buh bye Moscow Mitch). Only with such a mandate will we get a strong Biden agenda going. If we don't get the Senate then Mitch will block everything, including if Justices Breyer or Thomas die or retire, he'll never let Biden fill the seat.

[Bonx]

5. Yessssss!!!

[regnaD kciN]

6. In other words, 7% higher than he gave Hillary on Election Morning, 2016...

I'd be really curious to see how polls play out over the next few days (actually, just the polls that contain samples between this evening and Tuesday afternoon before the first debate). I'm under no illusion that Cult 45 are going to abandon Dear Leader in droves over this and, indeed, my suspicion is that it won't "move the needle" at all. But any further slippage, even if its only 1% or so, is going to be really bad news for Twitler, as he faces a difficult task making up ground even without people slipping away over this.

[Thekaspervote]

7. So many great polls out for Biden in past 2 days, state and ntl.....