New Monmouth poll shows Biden leads 50-45 nationally.

[Drunken Irishman]

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_US_092820/

This is the closest they've had the race since early April, when Biden was leading 48-44. Every other month has shown Biden with a significant lead except for this month.

Biden led by 9, 11, 12, 10 and 7 in their last few polls.

[Walleye]

1. Talking heads:" polls are tightening!" Wait for it

[lagomorph777]

33. This poll is much tighter than the big batch released this morning.

I'm not down on Monmouth but this one seems like an outlier.

[Moostache]

2. What? You can't hear the call coming down the stretch? (NSFW)

In reality...the media and polling ONLY cares about the horse race...they can give two shits less about the rest as long as ratings stay high until Nov. 3rd.

[PCIntern]

54. Omg!

I couldn’t stop laughing. Thank you for that.

[BannonsLiver]

3. Right on cue for the final 30 days

Horse race narrative in full effect.

“Aaaaaand down the stretch they go!”

[Drunken Irishman]

5. So you think Monmouth University purposely alters their polling to create a horse race?

[Demsrule86]

7. I don't know but I do know this is an outlier.

[Drunken Irishman]

12. Not really.

Of the last 13 national polls released, this margin is within a point of four other polls. It's closer to the average than the ABC poll that had Biden up ten.

[Awsi Dooger]

17. The 10-point margin is not a real-world poll

I realize nobody wants to hear that. But Trump's rise in approval rating correlates to how many votes he will receive. That's why I was always hoping he would remain 42% or lower on 538

[Demsrule86]

22. I say Biden will destroy Trump...wait for it.

[Drunken Irishman]

27. Yes. Trump's approval puts him at around 44-45% support on election day.

if things don't improve or drop between now and then.

That would likely give Biden a 6-7 point lead which I think he's trending toward.

Something like 51-44.

[pnwmom]

18. Both 538 and RCP have him at 7, which has been very consistent for weeks.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

[Drunken Irishman]

19. Which is not far from the 5 of this poll.

It's definitely on the lower end of the averages but not quite the outlier like Rasmussen is.

[pnwmom]

30. 7 is close to half way between the 5 and the 10. I'm not worried about that single poll.

And don't forget. The pollsters adjusted their methods after Hillary to give more weight to lower-educated voters, even though the 2016 overall results came within a point of the actual vote. So the polls now may be actually understating Biden's support.

[ProfessorGAC]

51. Not Quite, DI

538 & RCP are aggregations of multiple polls.
As the aggregation increases the sample size, the math shows a reduction in margin of error.
And since Monmouth is included in the aggregate, it's reducing the overall average. So, take Monmouth out, and the mean goes up.
That puts Monmouth's 5% further left of the mean.
Besides, I question a change this different than the moving average of their own polls. It suggests that almost 70% of the missing 8% (deducting 3rd party or protest votes) all decided on PINO in the last week.
Something odd about that.

[Drunken Irishman]

52. Still quite, actually.

It's far closer to other polls than the ABC News poll which has Biden +10. That's the difference. It's within two-points of most recent polls (either +/-), which tells me it's fairly close to the norm, even if it's off a bit. By no means is this poll an outlier. An outlier would be the Rasmussen poll which has it a one-point race.

[ProfessorGAC]

53. Then We Disagree

The averaging of polls, particularly in a weighted fashion, narrows the MOE substantially.
Given that this poll is included in the aggregate, to determine significant difference, you take the average, Monmouth redacted.
That 2% shift from the mean goes to 2/12% with an MOE OF 1.65%.
The Monmouth poll is a statistical outlier, even using a 99% CI.

[Demsrule86]

21. If anything the polls are skewed for Trump as they are based on voter turnout in 16 which

is nothing like what we can expect this year.

[Fiendish Thingy]

36. But do any other recent polls have a +/-4.9% MOE? Nt

[Drunken Irishman]

39. The ABC News poll was 4.0 MOE among LV - so, .9 off of that.

Rasmussen's poll that has Biden down 1 has the lowest MOE of any national poll at 2.5%. Doubt anyone hear will suggest that poll is the gold standard because it's MOE is the lowest.

[Fiendish Thingy]

42. All the polls I could find from the past week were 3.5% or less

This poll is an outlier, apart from the general trend.

[Drunken Irishman]

44. The ABC poll in their LV model was 4.0 per their pdf readout.

Their RV model was 3.5 but that is meaningless when they are reporting their LV numbers.

[Fiendish Thingy]

45. And all the rest besides Monmouth and ABC were 3.5 or less for LV's

Which makes Monmouth’s results with an extreme 4.9 MOE an outlier.

[BannonsLiver]

11. Who said it was intentional?

But maybe? Or Maybe not?

What do you think? I’m just kidding. I’m not really interested.

[Drunken Irishman]

14. You know, it's not a requirement to try to be as ugly as your username.

But it's good to know you find my opinion so boring and uninteresting. You can continue to be rude. Just know I won't see it.

[BannonsLiver]

15. Hey you started it by getting all defensive about Monmouth

[uponit7771]

4. "Independent voters are split at 43% for Trump and 41% for Biden. " Ummm, Monmoth that's an 8 point

... swing in less than 3 weeks for a national candidate and they still posted this bullshit.

Unless Joe smacked somebody grandma in the mouth I'm calling no on this poll

[triron]

8. I think so as well.

[DemsIn2020]

10. Why does DU get so into these worthless polls..

Just go vote.. Let it all take care of itself.

Honestly, I do think this isn's a blowout some of you think it is, but I do see Biden up Nationally by at least 6-7 Points.

[Demsrule86]

6. Bullshit poll

[Drunken Irishman]

9. 538 grades them an A+.

[Demsrule86]

23. Any poll can be off ...look at the history of polls...I do not believe this to be accurate.

[Fiendish Thingy]

34. And they give Emerson, which has serious methodology issues, an A- Nt

[Drunken Irishman]

37. Yup. Still no reason to dismiss this poll just because it's not as favorable.

[BannonsLiver]

13. Careful the OP might get offended

They seem to be really into Monmouth.

[liskddksil]

25. Monmouth is A+ rated. Instead of whining about results we don't like we should work to

change the numbers in our favor for the next go round.

[BannonsLiver]

28. Or I can not care what kind of letter grade Horse Race Nate assigns to a poll.

Monmouth had Hillary ahead and outside their margin of error on Election Day. Let’s all stop acting like their shit doesn’t stink, shall we?

Thanks.

[Statistical]

41. Yeah and she won the popular vote.

Crazy how that works.

[BannonsLiver]

46. She didn't win by 6 which is where they had her on ED.

Sorry. Not in the Monmouth Fan Boi Club.

[Statistical]

47. Once again margin of error.

[regnaD kciN]

16. I'm frankly getting quite tired...

...of the reflexive DU habit of denigrating any poll just because we don’t like their current results.

Monmouth is a good, reliable polling organization. We’ve seen most polls this cycle giving Biden a lead of between 5% and 10%. Considering most polls have at least a 2.5% MoE, is this result really surprising?

[DemsIn2020]

20. I think what is surprising is the fact that..

DU still think this is going to ne a huge landslide win as I don't see it going that way at all. I think Biden will win, but Trump is going to get his EV. It's time to quit ignoring the fact that he has a huge huge base that worships him and outside of performing an abortion on live TV they are with him.

I said the other night I see it being like 280-230 or something like that, which would equal the polls that have Joe up 3-8 points

[Demsrule86]

26. Really how not surprising...I don't see it that way and welcome to DU by the way.

[Demsrule86]

24. Some of the data is suspect...the independent data...no way you see that kind of swing

with nothing going on.

[Fiendish Thingy]

32. This polls has a 4.9 MOE, which makes Biden's 4 pt. Lead meaningless. Nt

[BAnthony]

29. Losing the economic argument

I still think we have done a poor job on the economic argument. Depressing that all you have to say is "i will give you a tax cut". When you cut taxes but don't cut spending, it actually ends up being a tax increase. Why? Because the federal reserve has to print more money to make up the difference. This dilutes the value of your money. There is nothing wrong with running deficits unless they have rise too fast and too quickly. That is where we are now.

[Fiendish Thingy]

31. 4.9% MOE means statistically tied. Nt

[budkin]

35. But swing state polls are improving for Biden

And I'd rather lead in those!

[TeamPooka]

38. national polls are worthless. Swing state polls are all that matter. The media desperately

needs this to be a "close horse race" so they can sell ads.
Don't fall for it.
GOTV and swamp Trump with the Blue Wave that's coming for him.

[Drunken Irishman]

43. Monmouth has no association with any media outlet.

It's a University that does their own polling. Your comment is funny, though, considering the two most recent media polls, ABC & NY Times, has Biden up 10 & 8 respectively - five and three points better than this non-media poll.

[TeamPooka]

48. The media touts the polls that help their agenda. They frame the story.

Kind of like how Colt doesn't work with murderers, but killers use their guns for their agenda

[Drunken Irishman]

49. Sure but that's not on Monmouth. I doubt they're cooking their numbers.

[TeamPooka]

50. It's not Monmouth's fault their national numbers are worthless.

Everyone's national poll numbers are worthless.
They should focus on swing states.

[Statistical]

40. If you have a basket of polls one will be the highest and one will be the lowest.

Both are likely not that interesting. Look at the average. If you do that the race has been unusually consistent. Most people decided who they were going to vote for months or in some cases years ago.

[Demsrule86]

55. Two new polls maybe three...Biden is above 50% and up by 9-10 points