General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsHave you seen the latest polls today?
The poll averages are what tells the story, and Biden is up 6 points, but this week, ALL the polls, even
Rasmussen, has Biden ahead.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
safeinOhio
(32,531 posts)Biden up 7.1 average of all polls.
mr_lebowski
(33,643 posts)Silent3
(15,018 posts)The wider the national gap, the lower the odds of the crazy Electoral College system making a difference. Id have to look it up again for the exact value, but the largest EC override of the popular vote has been 2-3%, with one exception of about 4% in the case of a weird 4-way race in the early 1800s, under a very different electoral system.
If the national vote differs by 7%, the odds of the EC overriding that are quite small.
Happy Hoosier
(7,080 posts)The state polls are NOT disconnected from national polls. A lead in the national polls doesn't mean Biden will win, but a lead this big makes it far more likely. In other words, there are very few scenarios where Biden can win the national vote by 7% and Trump wins enough states to secure the election win. Hillary won the national vote by 2.8%, and just BARELY lost the states that put Trump over the top in the EC. That kinda tells you where the ceiling is.
malaise
(267,822 posts)a blow out of epic proportions is coming. VOTE!
dixiegrrrrl
(60,010 posts)Hee hee...savor...savor. Also maybe savior.
malaise
(267,822 posts)CONCERNED. I don't care, do you?
Johnny2X2X
(18,745 posts)Eid Ma Clack Shaw
(490 posts)I can only hope that the bad headlines for Trump havent finished and that theres more to come - people have dreadfully short memories, but this stuff will chip away and it will sway some of the third party voters who are currently the difference in certain polls between a ten point Biden lead nationwide and a five or six point advantage.
Polybius
(15,238 posts)We much come to accept that no matter what Trump does, Biden is not gonna win by 20 points. It's gonna be something like Trump 46, Biden 53, and third Parties at 1%.
With that being said, there are still many here who disagree, and that it's gonna be a 60-40 blowout.
PoindexterOglethorpe
(25,746 posts)But this is incredibly consistent, from poll to poll.
Wounded Bear
(58,440 posts)admittedly they are good indicators now. But the election is far from over.
PoindexterOglethorpe
(25,746 posts)only just broken, and I doubt much polling has taken place since then. Let's see what things look like in a few more days.
dixiegrrrrl
(60,010 posts)the last ones were averaged out on the 28th.
This trainwreck of a debate tonight is gonna be interesting for the polls.
PoindexterOglethorpe
(25,746 posts)Every day something new and worse.