UMass Lowell Survey of Texas Voters: Biden -4

[brooklynite]

This poll was independently funded by the University of Massachusetts Lowell, designed and analyzed by the Center for Public Opinion. Data was collected by YouGov, an online polling organization. YouGov interviewed 1073 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 1000 registered voters to produce the final dataset of registered voters. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. The frame of TX Registered Voters was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2016 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration Supplement, with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file). The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and region. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post- stratified according to these deciles. The weights were then post-stratified on 2016 Presidential vote choice, born again status, ideology, and a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4- categories) and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight. Benchmarks for born again and ideology were obtained from the 2014 Pew Religious Life survey. A likely voter screen was then applied to classify 882 likely voters and a likely voter weight was used in the final model disposition.

And, what if the election for President were held today and the candidates for President were [rotate] [the Democrat, Joe Biden] and [the Republican, Donald Trump], for whom would you vote?
46% Joe Biden
50% Donald Trump

https://www.uml.edu/docs/2020-Texas-Sept-Topline_tcm18-330588.pdf

[VMA131Marine]

1. 538 has the polling average with Biden down by 2.1%

There seem to be almost no undecideds though so The outcome in TX will hinge on who gets their voters to vote. That said, Biden doesn’t need Texas, Trump has zero chance without it.

[David__77]

2. It's nice to see a favorable trend in Texas.

I know that people have talked about this for a long time, like 20 years. Still, the departure of the old conservative Democrats is basically done. I think that that process sort of washed out other changes that have favored Democrats. Now, those other pro-Democratic trends will continue, and the Republican coalition is not growing there - it is shrinking.