Anyone from Detroit know what is up with Michigan?

[kansasobama]

I know these are C- rated polls but Trafalgar predicted Michigan in 2016. They are not great, as per 538, but have good record in the Midwest.

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-sen-1020/

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-pres-1020/

Help me with my anxiety..

[bbrady42]

1. Trafalgar's assuming 2016 turnout

Their model is based on 2016's turnout. They aren't taking increased numbers of minority voters, college educated, etc, into account.

They are 6 points right of everyone else on average.

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

4. I think trafalger also adjusts for what they call the "social desirability bias"

Which is basically the supposed shy trump vote. I don't doubt that shy trump voters exist, but I doubt they do so in any statistically relevant amount.

[PTWB]

2. The race is close in the swing states.

Joe Biden’s campaign manager has been trying to get the word out that their internal polling does NOT show a double digit lead. Some folks here have been spreading misinformation to discredit her.

[pamdb]

3. Peters vs james

John James, the darling of the right, is getting millions from DeVos and Moscow Mitch.
Don’t look at Trafalger, it’s an outlier, and just be glad we have straight ticket voting. Hopefully if you’ve been standing in line for an hour to vote, you’ll just fill in the Democratic straight ticket circle.
James wants to get rid of Obamacare, make seniors and people with pre-existing conditions pay more. He’s against ANY abortion. He hasn’t decided whether that would apply to save the life of the mother. How fucking big of him. Until men develop the ability to get pregnant, to be pregnant for 9 months, and go through delivery, they need to Shut. The Fuck. Up.

[gibraltar72]

5. Just off my 16th week phonebanking Michigan.

Don't see anything to worry about. The only change I have noticed is positive in our direction. That started about second week of phonebanking. Every person but 1 that I actually talked to today was in on Biden. I've done this for twenty years. This time is different. Self identified Republicans tell me when they reached their tipping point.

[Takket]

6. james has been running ads that are almost apolitical for himself

coupled with negative ads about peters, and i think people are falling for it. his ads are all about "oh i was in the military and hard work, and teammork and blah blah blah" and doesn't mention a thing about his wanted all the things drumpf wants (end ACA, forced births, etc). So people are falling for it......... the race is close but Peters i have to imagine will skate through on Biden's coattails. I hope.

[Cartaphelius]

7. Trafalgar is said to have a right leaning bias