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Sat Oct 17, 2020, 02:44 PM

Anyone from Detroit know what is up with Michigan?

I know these are C- rated polls but Trafalgar predicted Michigan in 2016. They are not great, as per 538, but have good record in the Midwest.

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-sen-1020/

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-pres-1020/

Help me with my anxiety..

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Reply Anyone from Detroit know what is up with Michigan? (Original post)
kansasobama Oct 2020 OP
bbrady42 Oct 2020 #1
DetroitLegalBeagle Oct 2020 #4
PTWB Oct 2020 #2
pamdb Oct 2020 #3
gibraltar72 Oct 2020 #5
Takket Oct 2020 #6
Cartaphelius Oct 2020 #7

Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 03:04 PM

1. Trafalgar's assuming 2016 turnout

Their model is based on 2016's turnout. They aren't taking increased numbers of minority voters, college educated, etc, into account.

They are 6 points right of everyone else on average.

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Response to bbrady42 (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 03:33 PM

4. I think trafalger also adjusts for what they call the "social desirability bias"

Which is basically the supposed shy trump vote. I don't doubt that shy trump voters exist, but I doubt they do so in any statistically relevant amount.

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 03:08 PM

2. The race is close in the swing states.

 

Joe Bidenís campaign manager has been trying to get the word out that their internal polling does NOT show a double digit lead. Some folks here have been spreading misinformation to discredit her.

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 03:18 PM

3. Peters vs james

John James, the darling of the right, is getting millions from DeVos and Moscow Mitch.
Donít look at Trafalger, itís an outlier, and just be glad we have straight ticket voting. Hopefully if youíve been standing in line for an hour to vote, youíll just fill in the Democratic straight ticket circle.
James wants to get rid of Obamacare, make seniors and people with pre-existing conditions pay more. Heís against ANY abortion. He hasnít decided whether that would apply to save the life of the mother. How fucking big of him. Until men develop the ability to get pregnant, to be pregnant for 9 months, and go through delivery, they need to Shut. The Fuck. Up.

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 03:34 PM

5. Just off my 16th week phonebanking Michigan.

Don't see anything to worry about. The only change I have noticed is positive in our direction. That started about second week of phonebanking. Every person but 1 that I actually talked to today was in on Biden. I've done this for twenty years. This time is different. Self identified Republicans tell me when they reached their tipping point.

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 03:40 PM

6. james has been running ads that are almost apolitical for himself

coupled with negative ads about peters, and i think people are falling for it. his ads are all about "oh i was in the military and hard work, and teammork and blah blah blah" and doesn't mention a thing about his wanted all the things drumpf wants (end ACA, forced births, etc). So people are falling for it......... the race is close but Peters i have to imagine will skate through on Biden's coattails. I hope.

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 03:46 PM

7. Trafalgar is said to have a right leaning bias

 

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