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Wed Oct 28, 2020, 11:10 AM

Florida Wednesday All votes as of noon - GOP 37.5- Dem 41.1

I know Biden is going to Tampa tomorrow. Unless the 20.2% independents break for Biden, I wonder if Democrats need to focus on AZ and NC where it is very tight but winnable. Hate to come out empty in AZ, NC, GA and FL. I trust them but I am concerned. Numbers seem to be showing a GOP win. 1.5% lead on election day won't do it. Hope all Dems sitting on their ballots drop it off on Oct 31st.

Just today (10/28/20), as of noon, GOP has:

Democrats: 36,473 31.27%
Republicans: 51,642 44.27%
NPA/Others: 28,542 24.47%

I know a poll yesterday showed Biden 50-48. I am having a tough time seeing that in the numbers unless a big chunk of GOP is going for Biden. Generally, it goes both ways. It is a wash usually. Some Dems go GOP and vice versa. Anyone have more insight?

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Arrow 24 replies Author Time Post
Reply Florida Wednesday All votes as of noon - GOP 37.5- Dem 41.1 (Original post)
kansasobama Oct 2020 OP
sweetloukillbot Oct 2020 #1
kansasobama Oct 2020 #5
kitron Oct 2020 #6
LisaL Oct 2020 #9
sweetloukillbot Oct 2020 #16
Roland99 Oct 2020 #14
Thekaspervote Oct 2020 #2
LisaL Oct 2020 #7
greenjar_01 Oct 2020 #3
obamanut2012 Oct 2020 #18
Cosmocat Oct 2020 #4
jcgoldie Oct 2020 #8
Blasphemer Oct 2020 #10
Amishman Oct 2020 #11
Eid Ma Clack Shaw Oct 2020 #12
BannonsLiver Oct 2020 #13
kansasobama Oct 2020 #17
obamanut2012 Oct 2020 #19
BannonsLiver Oct 2020 #24
chuckperth Oct 2020 #15
kansasobama Oct 2020 #20
chuckperth Oct 2020 #23
Bleacher Creature Oct 2020 #21
kansasobama Oct 2020 #22

Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 11:13 AM

1. So which is it?

Your hed says 41-37 Dem
Your post says 44-31 Rep

Your concern is noted.

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Response to sweetloukillbot (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 11:20 AM

5. Today's Early vote is GOP, total vote Dems lead by about 3.6

Based on today's early vote, GOP is catching up fast.

Unfortunately, there are still 792,632 outstanding Dem absentee ballots. Sad!

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Response to kansasobama (Reply #5)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 11:28 AM

6. The early lead is shrinking fast 246k now

 

I am not sure what's going on with Miami-Dade. Only 46.2% votes received so far

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Response to kitron (Reply #6)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 11:32 AM

9. Only?

It's similar to many other counties. Average is at 49.2%.

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Response to LisaL (Reply #9)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 11:46 AM

16. It's all Miami Dade's fault, dontcha know?

OP's MO... Sad!

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 11:16 AM

2. I understand Miami dade is not turning out to vote. We can't win there without them

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 11:31 AM

7. Define "not turning out to vote"

% Turnout seems similar to many other FL counties. 46.2 % already voted in Miami Dade.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 11:17 AM

3. Your position has been very clear

 

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Response to greenjar_01 (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 11:48 AM

18. AGREED

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 11:19 AM

4. Florida going to Florida

WTH knows ...

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 11:31 AM

8. Well at least you are consistently concerned!

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 11:33 AM

10. We don't need FL and there isn't a senate race. It would just be icing. nt

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 11:34 AM

11. We can't model the trend as covid changed all the rules

All we can do is hope for the best.

I'd believe the polls before I'd believe magic 8 ball guesses based on early turn in numbers.

Also, these would have to be receipt processed / confirmed. How large are the mountains of unprocessed returned ballots? I'd assume as the most populated part of florida, they would be the most overwhelmed with processing the paper ballot returns.

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 11:34 AM

12. Party registration is not party ID or voting intention

People are trying to extrapolate faaaaar too much from registration stats.

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)


Response to BannonsLiver (Reply #13)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 11:47 AM

17. Not doom, want our Dem absentee ballots in somehow

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Response to kansasobama (Reply #17)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 11:48 AM

19. CONTINUED CONCERN NOTED

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Response to kansasobama (Reply #17)


Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 11:45 AM

15. Huh?

 

Your numbers are confusing. GOP propaganda should not be parroted on this site. By the way, Biden is up with Independents by 7 to 10% nationally, he pulls 10% of R's, and trump gets 3% of Dems.

Your numbers show the strength of Biden's position, not the sky is falling nonsense that every other post on here reflects lately. Harry Enten said, particularly in Florida, former registered Independents and Dems, that have been consistently voting Republican for years, have recently switched their registration to Republican, so that 7-10% Indy margin may be closer to 10-13 in Florida, for Biden.

In Florida, 18-30 year olds have doubled their vote at this point (70% for Biden/mostly registered independent). Miami-Dade has been slow to count or even acknowledge receipt of mail-in ballots. Still, as of today, Dems have a 100k lead, and that is not including Independents.

Bottom line: these numbers do not reflect who these votes were cast for, but, reading and apllying the polls to these statistics, Biden is ahead and his lead will get a boost when Miami-Dade is all in the bank. Incedently, the white share of the vote is down 5% in Florida.

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Response to chuckperth (Reply #15)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 11:49 AM

20. Not GOP propaganda- I want Floridians to throw light

I am happy to see your take.

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Response to kansasobama (Reply #20)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 12:17 PM

23. Understood

 

I get the fear, but despite heavily stacking polls to advantage trump, and avoid underestimating his pull, trump is trailing everywhere that matters. I, personally, believe we could add 1-3 points to state level polls for Biden. And, those are just the legitimate non-partisan polls. I do not know how to unskew fake propaganda polls (trafalgar, Rasmussen, Susquehanna). But, that is just my hunch, based on the demographics of 2020 v. 2016.

There are no hidden trump voters. They are loud, proud, and violent. If anything, there are closeted Biden voters. Like Lady G, taking a hardline family values/anti-gay stance in public, while all the while checking in nightly at the miscreant hotel of self loathing. I see these red hatted flag waving moron parades, but, when you look closely at the truck beds over the ladies on the mud flaps behind the dice in mirror something else becomes clear, there is usually a quiet one with his head down slinking behind his swastika covered shirtless red faced uncle-brother. Take solice knowing that he, like the loud ones, gets to vote alone and no one will ever know his secret. Hopefully, we will know Lyndseys' soon, not because he should be ashamed, but because he shames those who should also not be ashamed.

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Wed Oct 28, 2020, 11:52 AM

21. For the millionth time, you can't analyze EV numbers based on prior years' models.

Steve Schale knows more about FL than anyone, and he lays it all out here:


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