Polls minus Voter Suppression equals Actual Outcome

[intrepidity]

P - VS = AO

We are about to learn the value of the unknown variable called "Voter Suppression".

We are all so very optimistic because we see good polling. The question that remains is whether the margin of victory for our side is greater than VS.

We shall soon know.

[Statistical]

1. Polls try to account for voter supression.

Polls use likely voter models and those predict the likelihood a demographic will vote based on historical trends. Sadly votes trends are accounting for voter suppression. For example Black Americans vote as a lower rate than White Americans. Now some of that is apathy or lack of engagement/outreach and some of that is crosstabs from other socio-economic factors but some of that is modeling the impact of voter suppression.

Now if voter suppression goes up the marginal increase may not be accounted for but sadly overall voter suppression is historical enough and consistent enough it is reflected in polls of likely voters (not registered voters but those polls are dumb for a lot of reasons).

[intrepidity]

2. I'm using a broader definition of VS, I believe

Including ballots tossed because of technicalities (signature mismatch), mailed ballots undelivered before deadline, long wait times at polls, etc.

[Statistical]

3. Those methods have existed in prior years as well.

To look at one demographic all those things are among the reasons why a lower income black American votes at a lower rate than an upper income white American.

Now you could argue that these things have increased since 2016 but I am not sure they have. We are fearful of 2020 so it certainly sees like it but we were fearful of the same things (rightfully so) in 2020.

I am just saying it is entirely possible Biden outperforms polls. That wouldn't mean voter suppression is 0% right? Voter suppression to some degree is largely baked into the polls because Republicans have been doing it so long and so systematically that is has affected the historical trends of voter participation.

[intrepidity]

7. I might respectfully disagree

The Pandemic has changed many things

[lagomorph777]

4. Polls plus Increased Turnout minus Voter Suppression equals outcome

Historic turnout is voters' middle finger to the suppression tactics.

[TheRealNorth]

5. Polls only account for the effects of previously observed voter suppression

I am concerned that the games that are going on now is a whole other level.

[intrepidity]

6. Yes, that's the real unknown variable nt