I would like to play the "approval rating game" from now until the election.

[LoZoccolo]

Let's play this game:

If you want to make a guess that President Obama's Gallup approval rating amongst liberal Democrats will go down, post what you think will be the lowest number it will be between now and the election.

If you want to make a guess that that President Obama's Gallup approval rating amongst liberal Democrats will go up, post what you think will be the highest number it will be between now and the election.

This isn't a contest for money or anything, just a contest for fun.

[Enrique]

1. I think it's very high now

and will remain very high. It will fluctuate, but remain very high.

[tularetom]

2. Amongst liberal democrats? It won't fluctuate much

In the population at large it depends on the economy. He's pretty much removed foreign policy as an issue so his fortunes depend on people's perception of their current and future financial health.

Unless he gets talked into starting a war with Iran he has nowhere to go but up.

[gratuitous]

3. Any ground rules?

Or are we just going with the meaningless Gallup number?

That is, what constitutes someone being a "liberal"? If Rahm Emanuel calls himself a liberal, that's okay with everyone playing, right? And by "approve," we're talking about a very wide range of things, but if a person "approves" of President Obama by a 51-49% weighing of all issues, policies, and stances, then they're counted as "approving" of the President just as much as, say, Michelle Obama "approves" of the President, right? Motivations don't factor in (such as the idea of "I approve of President Obama as against a hypothetical President McCain&quot , nor do individual issues (e.g., "While I disapprove of President Obama's many shortcuts through the Constitution in order to justify continuing the crimes against humanity begun by the Bush administration, or the perpetration of other crimes like the extra-legal executions of so many around the world, on balance I guess I prefer a President Obama to any number of other possible alternatives&quot , but just the one, nebulous, ill-defined quality, "liberal Democrats who approve of President Obama" as determined by the Gallup polling company.

In which case, the number will go no lower than 81% and no higher than 83%. And it won't mean a goddam thing. But it will be fun, I suppose.

[emulatorloo]

4. So only you can determine if someone is a "true liberal"?

That is a wonderful gift you have.

P.S. Gallup does not determine whether respondents are liberal Democrats.

Respondents self-identify.

Along the lines of

"are you a democrat or republican or independent?"
"do you consider yourself a conservative, moderate, or liberal"

[Robb]

5. He also does card tricks.

[emulatorloo]

6. ...

[gratuitous]

8. Gee, thanks for clarifying my post

Since I didn't say I could identify a "true liberal," but it must be there. Or you're delusional. One of those two. I merely pointed out that Gallup's methodology is suspect. But that seems to upset a lot of folks who derive great comfort from citing Gallup's "approval" rating for President Obama among "liberal Democrats." It's 83%! Whoo hoo! That, like, totally validates everything the administration does!!

[emulatorloo]

9. What part of Gallup's methodology is suspect?

That they allow their respondents to self-identify?

Apparently you were not aware of that until I told you.

As to "delusion," I think some DU'ers have difficulty acknowledging that DU is a bubble/echo chamber. We are not reflective of real world Democrats here.

A reminder of that now and again is probably healthy to the community. If we spend all our time in a hall of mirrors, we risk only being able to talk to one another.

FreeRepublic is full of people who confuse their minority viewpoint with a majority one. I think we can agree that DU can do better than that.

[gratuitous]

10. What does "approve" mean?

If, say, Sen. Ben Nelson of Nebraska self-identifies as a "liberal Democrat" (because he'd certainly be "liberal" for some sectors of Nebraska), and he "approves" of the Obama administration, what does that mean? That he approves of the continuation of war in Afghanistan? That he approves of the expansion of hostilities into Pakistan? That he approves of the new environmental rules promulgated? That he approves of the recess appointments to the CFPB and the NLRB?

For that matter, what does anyone in the Gallup survey "approve" of, and how are those approvals weighted? For some folks, the continuation of the worst foreign policies of the Bush administration is a deal-breaker. For others, the fact that Obama hasn't bombed Iran means he's practically the second coming. If someone says in their own mind that on balance Obama is preferable to a hypothetical President McCain, he or she decides to say "approve," in spite of serious misgivings about actual events and actions.

And yet there are those in this community who will trumpet this number as "proof" of overwhelming support for the administration, and will use it as a cudgel to marginalize those who object to actions and policies coming out of the administration, citing the poll results which, as I say yet again, employ suspect methodology. If that isn't apparent, then being delusional may be only a minor annoyance.

[emulatorloo]

11. Have you done any research at the Gallup site?

It sounds to me like you are making a lot of assumptions about what they asked and/or didn't ask.

Typically polling groups publish the internals of their polls. That way you can see what questions were asked.

I don't have time to do the research for you right now. Basically you are looking for this section at Gallup, this is the page OP is citing:

Presidential Job Approval Center
http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Approval-Center.aspx

Somewhere we are going to find a link to the actual questions that were asked. I will give it a go later.

If I find the internals before you, I will post the link. Please do the same if you turn them up.

====

ON EDIT: I can't find the internals in the cursory look I took before heading out the door. Did find the survey methods, which is good to know I think. Bottom of this page, in light gray type:


http://www.gallup.com/poll/151907/Obama-Begins-2012-Job-Approval.aspx

[gratuitous]

12. Curiously, the Gallup site isn't terribly forthcoming

They do mention that they poll "approximately" 1,500 adults, and claim to weight it by various categories but I haven't found anywhere on the site what that weighting is, and how many "liberal Democrats" are included in their sample. Is it representative of the number of "liberal Democrats" in the general population (e.g., Do they include 13% self-identified "liberal Democrats" in their sample, but 18% of the population is actually "liberal Democrat" - or vice versa?). That probably only affects the total number approval rating, but if the sample size is sufficiently small, the margin of error goes up substantially. The site also doesn't appear to go into the actual questions asked.

And I will say that if I'm making "assumptions" (as you say) based on questions I have about Gallup's methodology, then there are some pretty hefty "assumptions" being made about this raw "approval" number of "liberal Democrats" that those heralding the number have seen fit to avoid entirely. And folks who do that don't even demonstrate a minimum curiosity about how that number is arrived at. No news is good news in that worldview, but I'm not a subscriber to that service.

[emulatorloo]

13. I found it. . .

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110380/How-does-Gallup-Daily-tracking-work.aspx

There is a PDF linked to the phrase "View all Gallup Daily tracking questions and methodology."

Click there and you will download a PDF entitled "Gallup Daily Tracking 2011-2012"

This shows the questions that are asked in their daily tracking polls.

Anyway, I really do have to run out now, but I will be around for much of the after noon Let's both read this and resume later, OK?

I am pretty open minded about this, I do have a fascination how polling groups conduct polls, so I do look forward to talking to you about it.

[Rex]

7. Since the number does not seem to change much.

I will guess it will stay in the low 80s range moving toward the 90s as we get closer to election time.