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Sat Oct 31, 2020, 05:23 PM

Florida update based on a Florida guy on twitter

According to a Florida blog guy,

BAD NEWS:

Dave Trotter
@DaNumbersGuy
I think one of the stories today in #Florida is that Early Voting lines in Miami-Dade are almost empty, even compared to last Saturday.

SOME GOOD NEWS:

Dave Trotter
@DaNumbersGuy
Places in Orange County with wait times of 45+ right now are along Lee Road and in East Orange (by UCF). Very good news for Democrats.

@DaNumbersGuy
Today's electorate is becoming more Democratic as the day is passing.

Note: This is not from an official site but he has been good. So, Miami-Dade better vote on election day.

8 replies, 1305 views

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Arrow 8 replies Author Time Post
Reply Florida update based on a Florida guy on twitter (Original post)
kansasobama Oct 2020 OP
RandySF Oct 2020 #1
Awsi Dooger Oct 2020 #5
jcgoldie Oct 2020 #2
obamanut2012 Oct 2020 #3
kansasobama Oct 2020 #6
Awsi Dooger Oct 2020 #4
kansasobama Oct 2020 #7
rzemanfl Oct 2020 #8

Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 05:28 PM

1. Isn't it raining in Miami today?

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Response to RandySF (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 05:41 PM

5. Weather was not bad in Miami today

 

Some rain but better than expected

Rain was more of a factor in Broward County today

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 05:30 PM

2. "Florida Guy on Twitter"

There's a consistent theme in EVERYTHING you post.

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Response to jcgoldie (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 05:34 PM

3. 100% this

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Response to jcgoldie (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 05:57 PM

6. I agree

I want to be wrong. I am afraid. Also, I do not understand why that county does not care. But, there is always a chance that the so called independents are going heavily for Biden, and some senior GOP. I know polls are +1 or +2. But, we have also seen Biden camp worried about it. So, there is some truth somewhere. May not be as bad as this blogger but it probably is not rosy either.

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 05:40 PM

4. He's not a Florida guy

 

He's from Illinois or somewhere. I got sick of him more than a week ago when it was obvious he had no idea what he was talking about.

He insisted Souls to the Polls had never been a factor in Florida. That was comical ignorance. Rick Scott was so scared of Souls to the Polls after the 2010 governors race that he immediately cut the early voting days in half and got rid of that final Sunday of early voting. That final Sunday is Souls to the Polls. Early voting was extended years later and the final Sunday reinstated, due to public outrage and pressure on Tallahassee. But to assert it has never been a factor meant I lost all respect for the twitter guy.

Too many people focus on the result only. That's one of the major differences I see among general population as opposed to the gambling world that I am accustomed to. Just because the side reliant on Souls to the Polls has lost tight races hardly means it hasn't been a factor. Just keep plugging along and eventually it changes an outcome.

It took no talent or insight whatsoever for him to notice that Miami-Dade was under performing. I was posting here that the two counties with low return rate and participation were Seminole and Miami-Dade. But likewise he had no idea that Miami-Dade always shows up late. Steve Schale and many other began pointing that out.

More than anything, I don't care about turnout sites. It reminds me of sports analysts who fixate on strength of schedule. Great, you played a tougher schedule. But how good are you? That's these turnout guys who are so limited all they can do is look at one number in comparison to another and have no clue regarding preference, and the variables that impact preference. Ralston is the only guy who can get away with turnout fixation because Nevada only has 3 major variables while other states like Florida have dozens.

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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 05:58 PM

7. That is good to know

Kamala would not be there if she was facing empty lines. I agree it is low. How low is the question.

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Response to kansasobama (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 06:21 PM

8. There is one thing here I always read. n/t

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