ABC News Poll: Florida is Trump +2, Pennsylvania is Biden +7

[Drunken Irishman]

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/florida-maintains-toss-status-biden-leads-slightly-pennsylvania/story?id=73930623

This was supposedly the mediocre poll hinted at earlier.

While Biden's lead has slipped a bit in PA (he led by nine in their last poll), he's actually improved his standing in Florida, as he now trails by two after trailing by four in their September poll.

Ultimately, I'd much rather be up 7 in PA and down two in Florida than be up two in Florida and down 7 in Pennsylvania.

[cry baby]

1. That's nothing to panic about. +7 in PA is good. nt

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Not at all. I'd rather Biden be up 7 in PA and down two in FL than up two in FL and down 7 in PA.

[regnaD kciN]

18. ...or up 2 in PA and down 7 in FL.

As Nate Silver has said, the average polling error is plus or minus 3%. If Biden is seriously up by 7 (or even 5), it will take a considerably-larger-than-usual error in Trump's favor to win that state.

[cry baby]

19. It's been a long day waiting for new poll numbers.

Seems like the day was 3 weeks long!

I’m obviously hanging on too tight 😺

Thanks for getting these up so quickly.

[VMA131Marine]

2. The 538 poll average has FL as Biden +2

It’s going to be close, but Biden doesn’t need Florida. Trump does.

[Sogo]

9. That's why we want it so bad....

but the GOP shenanigans will be out in full force there, like we've already seen with the mail clogged mail processing.

[regnaD kciN]

16. Partly because they should have the results near-complete by midnightl...

...so that winning Florida (and/or GA and NC) would mean it wouldn't matter so much if PA takes forever to count.

[Sogo]

22. Good points!

Actually, if we take those, it won't matter how long any other states take to count....

[coti]

4. Winning either state puts Biden in outstanding shape nt

[Alhena]

5. I'm actually relieved after the report earlier saying this poll was bad for us

That poll is entirely consistent with Biden being the next president. We already knew Florida has problems based on the Miami Dade turnout.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. I was thinking it'd show Biden up 3 in PA and down in Florida by 4 or something.

[Alhena]

12. Same

[Claustrum]

13. Yeah. It is not as bad a poll as hinted.

PA is good, and FL is still toss-up. I don't know. Maybe I never really thought Biden would get FL.

[LisaL]

15. There was no report. Some guy was tweeting.

NT

[VMA131Marine]

6. The 538 poll average for PA is Biden +4.7

If the question is whether you would be Biden or Trump at this point in the election, then the obvious answer is that you’d rather be Biden.

[regnaD kciN]

11. And that +4.7 was BEFORE this new poll...

...and, as far as I can tell, only narrowed earlier today because of some poll from an organization I've never heard of before had Trump +1. Does Trafalger have a new business name?

[Claustrum]

17. Probably a good business to go into to counter the supposedly "leftist propaganda polls"

by skewing the aggregate with super right leaning nonsensical polls. I am sure they can find a lot of money backers on the right.

[Thekaspervote]

21. 538 also includes polls with poor methodology like trafalgar, Rasmussen and Emerson

The Economist that does not include these polls due to poor polling methodology
PA: Biden 53.1 trump 46.9

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/pennsylvania

[VMA131Marine]

27. This is true but ...

538 also weights polls according to their quality so low rated polls with poor methodology have less effect on the average.

[regnaD kciN]

30. ...and I think The Economist can, at times, be a bit too restrictive in what it accepts.

They leave off a lot of polls 538 rates highly. Now, they may screen out the garbage by doing that, but it seems to me they might just as well be missing some important trends as well. Frankly, I put more stock in 538 because it's more cautious -- I got burned badly enough in 2016 by putting all my faith in Sam Wang at PEC, who declared that Clinton had a "99%+" chance of winning on election morning. It turns out that 538's evaluation (that Clinton would probably win but that it was quite possible for Trump to still pull off the upset) was more accurate.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

8. Good

PA is holding steady with only a couple of days to go. Biden needs PA, along with WI and MI and he’s got his 270 in the bag (but seriously GOTFV!). I think he will likely snag NC and possibly AZ as well, if nothing else.

[Wanderlust988]

10. Biden improved in Florida since their last poll

It was 51-47 for Trump in their last poll.

[David__77]

14. Good PA result.

...

[Politicalgolfer]

20. One concern

Clicked on the link.....big portion of PA is planning to vote on election day rather than early or have already sent in ballots compared to FL. That option seems to me to be the most vulnerable to all sorts of Repub shit😠

[LisaL]

23. Well, it's bad news for republicans mostly because they are the ones planning to vote on Election

day.

[NewsCenter28]

25. Excellent results

So, win PA, MI, WI, and one of either NC or AZ, and we should be just fine, well over 270.

BTW, ABC News, I don't consider 7 points "slight."

Also if that holds, we should be at 270 if we win any of AZ, NC, or GA, even while we wait for the "blue shift" in PA on election night.

[Claustrum]

29. I think for AZ, we need WI, MI and (NE2 or ME2) to reach 270.

AZ alone can't replace PA.

[Alhena]

34. If we win PA, MI and WI, we just need to hold Hillary's states- don't need AZ or NC - link

Joe Biden’s path to 270 electoral votes seems pretty straightforward: Hold all 20 states (plus the District of Columbia) that Hillary Clinton carried four years ago, which total 232 electoral votes, just 38 short of the majority threshold of 270. Then win each of the three states that Clinton lost by eight-tenths of a point or less: Michigan (0.2 percentage points) Pennsylvania (0.7), and Wisconsin (0.8). That gives him 278 electoral votes, eight more than needed.

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/711037?unlock=SRT6SBVCJHPBFJTS

[Claustrum]

28. That's because PA didn't have early voting before so their voters are used to election day voting.

This year, they have a semi-in person early voting that you can request your mail-in ballot at the polling station and drop it off immediately. But it's still not a "real" in person early voting.

I used mail in for the first time in my state (not PA) for the primary and I decided not to use mail-in for general because we didn't have a ballot tracking system. For some state, election day is the way to go.

[WSHazel]

24. PA is looking very good

FL is such a mess because of the mail issues in Miami that I feel better about Texas than Florida right now.

[LisaL]

26. Mail issues in Miami is greatly exaggerated.

The total ballots found was 47.

[regnaD kciN]

32. That's from the one post office we KNOW of...

There are a lot of branches in the state that may not have had a whistleblower call Democratic officials.

[helpisontheway]

31. I'm finished with Florida. Supposedly, the AA turnout is low down there too..Not

sure what I expected from a state that elected Trump’s minime as governor.

[regnaD kciN]

33. According to one of the polling analysts...

...Blacks and Latinx in Florida tend to be suspicious of early voting, and show up at the polls on election day, so it may be too early to assume anything in that regard.