Do not let the Iowa poll give you heartburn!!! I am from Iowa

[Peacetrain]

and we have been within a hair of the Trump campaign the whole time.. We have never been a leading state in our take back of the great blue wall like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan etc. and between you and me, even if Trump does win here it will not be by any 7 points... DMR is a good poll of Iowa.. but they have had their drawbacks too and made some huge boo boo calls. Not because their strategies are wrong, but because like everyone else polling is hard now. And I will leave it at that.. If you have not voted yet.. vote in person!!!!!!! I am assuming the drop boxes are still open, call your local county auditor and double check.. it is not hard.. that would be your county courthouse. BUT DO NOT PUT YOUR BALLOT IN THE MAILBOX TOMORROW.. walk it in..

[Delarage]

1. Thank you!

Just saw that on MSNBC and was worried.

[Peacetrain]

4. If this was Michigan Minnestoa or Wisconsin... then I would have maybe a little worried

But Iowa has never been a game changer in this election. I still think Biden is going to take it.. but that will just be the gravy on the potatoes..

[mnmoderatedem]

2. I'm from Iowa too, originally

Saw that as well. DMR is usually accurate, but it's a little hard to believe that polls that have been neck and neck for quite some time are now +7 for trump.

And the polls are looking a little better for the removal of Phony Joni.

[Peacetrain]

5. I agree that is a stumper..but the DMR is as good as the infor they get in

and sometimes its hard now with cell phones etc.. though the some of the most technologically embracing people I know are the ones on the farm.. its just they are embracing so pretty questionable sites.. that is a for sure

[lostnfound]

3. Good luck to you Iowa! We are pulling for you!

Go Greenfield too, by the way!

[Peacetrain]

7. You know I have faith in Iowa.. It never was the game changing state.. but it should put the fear of

God in the Trump campaign..they are not in control like they were in 2016..

[beachbumbob]

6. democrats even talking about Iowa being competitive is a win no matter the outcome

[Peacetrain]

8. Exactly.. we have moved so far from 2016.. as I posted to someone else

That should put the fear of God in the Trump campaign !!

[beachbumbob]

12. same holds true with Texas and Georgia

the GOP sees the writing on the wall their party will no longer be of national importance and why we democrats must take power back at all state and local offices

[paleotn]

17. Iowa is gravy anyway....

MI, WI and PA are key. Throw in NC, AZ or FL and Biden could lose one of the original 3 key states and still win comfortably. Donnie has to nearly run the table or his done. Biden has other options.

[sunonmars]

9. Like you said, If Trump was winning by that much, he would not be going there today for a pep rally.

[judeling]

10. Don't let any poll freak you out

The Trend is Your Friend.
Biden has been leading from the moment he announced last year. There is nothing that has happened that has changed that, if anything his numbers have gotten stronger.
This is a referendum on Trump the game is all in turnout and that means at this point any poll is going to be challenging. The turnout models within these polls are going to be problematical simply because the of the strong early vote. Pollsters have to assume that the Early Blue shift is going to be matched by the Late Red shift.

Just looking at the Iowa poll with the early vote for Senate 55 33, there are just not that many undecided voters who have already voted.

[gab13by13]

11. At this stage I only look at one poll,

Trump's popularity and it hasn't moved an inch, it is what doomed Hillary.

[jayschool2013]

13. We need to keep those three House seats

Finkenauer, Axne and now Hart to replace Loebsack.

[Richluu]

14. And we only have 6 electoral votes

We are not a game changer. When I'm in any town or city I see Biden signs. It's the farms that have the Trump signs. Guess they like the socialism of free money.

[Kid Berwyn]

21. Funny how hypocrisy works.

Logs, motes, real property...

[Richluu]

30. Yep!

It's irritating.

[Sogo]

32. No, the farmers like their markets.

Don't let the Trump signs in the countryside fool you. There are not nearly as many this election as 2016.

There are a LOT of pissed off farmers, because Trump has ruined their markets with China.

[shrike3]

15. Thanks so much. Appreciate your encouraging words.

[paleotn]

16. One number among many....

Polls for weeks now have shown a tight race in Iowa. Donnie didn't get that much of a swing all of a sudden. That makes no sense. If other polls are showing different numbers, chalk it up to instrumentation, not reality. An outlier. Someone f'd up the math. Run it again and see if they get the same results. Ugh.

[sunonmars]

20. Donnie going there today tells you everything, they don't think they are 7 ahead.

[paleotn]

22. No need for Republicans to turn out Tuesday then.....

It's in the bag. Stay home and avoid thu Covid.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

18. According to some here, an Iowa loss automatically means...

... an Ohio loss too.

Such pleasant rays of sunshine.

[paleotn]

25. I don't know why.....

Other than their flag ship universities play football in the same conference, there's miles of difference. One has a relatively stable economy. The other has struggled for years with factory closings. Since the jobs didn't come back to Ohio's industrial heartland, it will be interesting to see how the vote plays out. Either way, neither OH or IA are must wins for Biden. Nice to win, but if he doesn't...eh.

[LenaBaby61]

19. It's frightening ...

That people KEEP voting in their own worst interests, and keep destroying this country.

A friend has relatives living/working on a small family farm they're this close to losing there in Iowa. He told me that this part of his family is STILL supporting tReasonous fatso, even though things have gotten much worse for that family financially under Greedy Fatso's reign of terror. I asked him why his family keeps on literally 'fucking' themselves, because they're not being paid tax-payer dollars to stay afloat, and they can't get a loan to keep their small family farm operating. He told me that they're just plain stupid, ignorant, bigoted, backwards-thinking people--even his younger relatives working on their small family farm are stupid, backwards-thinking, bigoted jackasses too who still support fatso.

He told me that the only person with any real thinking-ability and sense in that family is an in-law whose in the process of divorcing his cousin because she can't stand the stupidity, ignorance & bigotry any longer. She told my friend that she timed it so she could happily vote for Biden/Harris before she moved away. She also told my friend that she's also happy
that they only have 1 child (4), so that she can move quickly away from out of there and back to Olympia Washington, where she can raise their son around people in her family who actually have functioning brain cells, and who don't judge people by the color of their skin.

[book_worm]

23. How do you feel about the senate race?

I'd rather actually have the Dems win that than the presidential race in IA.

[grantcart]

24. Honest pollsters have outliers, others will shave results to conform to expectations

Same with ABC poll that had us up 17 in Wisconsin



Having outliers is a good sign, look at all of the polls not just one.

[SKKY]

26. At least for this election cycle, winning Iowa would be the proverbial icing on the cake...

...we really only need MI, WI, and PA. If FL comes through, along with NC, then we have a pretty resounding mandate against Trump and Trumpism. Adding Iowa to that, well, that would be the cherry on top.

[Blue Owl]

27. K&R

[Dr. Jack]

28. People are obsessing about random polls?

Is it 2004 again? I thought we all knew better than to look at individual polls by now

[Demsrule86]

29. Thanks Peace! K&R

[themaguffin]

31. No single poll by itself should be considered alone