Final NBC News/WSJ: Biden 52, Dump 42, Other 3, Unsure 3.

[My Pet Orangutan]

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/7280263-200986-NBCWSJ-Late-October-Poll.html

Double-digit lead in October


Solid support

[Me.]

1. Other 3 Unsure 3

WTH

[Tom Rivers]

2. Not too far off from what I predict

My final prediction for national popular vote percentage for about a month now has been:
Biden 52
Trump 46
3rd Party 2

I only think it'll be off a point or two in either direction. I think that's good for a Biden EC victory with over 300 EVs. My estimates are more conservative than most because some states I'm going to need to see flip before I believe it. I factor in more people holding their nose and voting for Hobgoblin than they're willing to say for whatever reason, but it not being enough to pull him through.

[My Pet Orangutan]

3. I think Biden will be +8

The highest quality polls have him +8-11. The unsure will be digesting the record Covid numbers.

[Tom Rivers]

4. That's possible

I think Joe's range is 51-55%. If Dems tune out GOP B.S. and just show up to vote it's closer to the high end, if the gaslighting succeeds at depressing our vote it's closer to the low end. I think we're motivated and will see historic numbers. How that translates to the screwed up EC is anyone's guess. In this era of polarization a 5 or 6 point win feels like a decisive mandate/repudiation, 7 points or more is a landslide.

[My Pet Orangutan]

6. Kick

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

5. To me it's shocking that apparently only a bit more

than half of the people surveyed are voting for Biden. And that more than 40% are voting for Trump.

Of course, if the turnout is as huge as it looks like it will be, those numbers may diverge a bit more. Especially as there seem to be a very large number of first-time voters.