CES estimates for 5 swing states

[gabeana]

Nate Cohn Retweeted
Brian Schaffner
@b_schaffner
·
1h
CES likely voter estimates for 5 key swing states:

FL (N=3,755): Biden 49 - Trump 47
GA (N=1,456): Biden 48 - Trump 47
NC (N=1,627): Biden 49 - Trump 45
PA (N=2,703): Biden 52 - Trump 44
TX (N=2,947): Trump 49 - Biden 47

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

[democrattotheend]

1. What is a CES estimate?

[gabeana]

2. I think it is the Center for Election Science

Just got the info from Nate Cohn's twitter

[Yonnie3]

4. I think he meant to type CCES

That's what is in the profile for the original tweeter

https://cces.gov.harvard.edu/

Cooperative Congressional Election Study

The CCES is a 50,000+ person national stratified sample survey administered by YouGov. Half of the questionnaire consists of Common Content asked of all 50,000+ people, and half of the questionnaire consists of Team Content designed by each individual participating team and asked of a subset of 1,000 people. In addition, several teams may pool their resources to create Group Content.

< snip >

Just my guess

EDIT: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Center_for_Election_Science was mentioned above, but a quick scan of the wiki seems to say it is not putting out info like that.

[Celerity]

5. Cooperative Election Study

https://bfschaffner.shinyapps.io/ces_swing/

[Yonnie3]

6. Yes!

Thanks for the link

Changed their name from CCES

[Celerity]

7. yw!

[Roland99]

3. GA, NC, and TX are swing states??

I think those are gravy.

Swing states are PA, MI, WI

FL isn’t needed if PA goes blue and lead looks better in PA than FL

[List left]

8. Sorry...in this case I am greedy...I want them all! nt

[My Pet Orangutan]

9. NC is certainly a swing state. And AZ.

[triron]

10. Excellent.

[Doodley]

11. Of those PA is the most important. An 8 point lead would seal the deal (currently 4.7 on 538).