A useless prediction

[DFW]

Last edited Mon Nov 2, 2020, 10:15 AM - Edit history (2)

Here in the newly locked-down German Rheinland, taking into account the two biggest yin and yang factors I see (huge Democratic turnout and a huge nationally coordinated Republican effort to make sure those Democratic votes are not counted), I predict neither a best case scenario nor a worst case scenario.

First the White House: Joe Biden wins enough States to be declared the winner, but the Republicans make an effort to contest enough of them so Trump doesn’t have to concede right away. They’ll give up eventually, but out of pure spite, they’ll make sure we have to sweat it out. Hours, days or weeks, I can’t say. That would depend on how big our true margin was.

Senate: we’ll get a majority but not as big as we would have without Republican cheating. We will win Senate seats in AZ, ME, NC, CO, and probably lose Doug Jones in Alabama. Though we’d love to pick up MT, IA, GA, TX, KY, KS, MS and SC, we’re not going to get them all. We’d do well to get half of them, although each loss will be a bitter one.

House: I think we expand our majority slightly, but I know several Texas women candidates, and like them all, so that is probably coloring my thinking. But no way do we lose the majority in any case.

There is my wishy-washy prediction. This is not 2008, so we had better get used to that before the fact.

*edited to include Colorado as a likely pickup. Thanks to DarthDem for pointing out my omission!
**edited again to include Montana as a possible Senate pickup--clearly I wasn't covering all bases this morning!

[murielm99]

1. Not a bad prediction.

Stay safe over there.

[DFW]

4. Trying hard to stay safe!

France, Spain and NL are very tight, and Belgium and CH are very wary about who they let in, too. Except for Germany itself, that constitutes 97% of my “office space.” So I am probably sidelined for at least a week, maybe several.

[BigmanPigman]

2. tRump and the GOP live for spite.

[DFW]

6. They do indeed

If Biden got 400 electoral votes, they would fight to get it down to 350 for no other reason than spite.

[BigmanPigman]

7. I'm curious...what is Germany's plan

for getting money to the citizens who won't be able to earn a living? How is it different from the US? Has it been successful?

[DFW]

9. It's a two stage plan

First comes what is called "Kurzarbeitergeld," which means "short-time worker money," not a helpful translation, I realize. It is paid from a 2.4% percent that both employer and employee pay into the fund specifically set up for this. It is taken out of (if you are the employee), or added to (if you are the employer) every paycheck. Basically, it means the unemployment insurance fund pays out 80% (87% is special cases) of the previous salary for 12 months (21 months in proven hardship cases). Then normal unemployment insurance kicks in, which is much lower.

I have no idea what the case is in the USA, or even if it is different from State to State, so I can't give you any comparisons.

[jaxexpat]

12. It sounds as if the German government has thought about this a little.

What it must be like to have a representative government in which one party does not game the system to perpetually embroider and polish their self-image, thus justifying their privilege and power. Do they have unicorn herds there too? Vast migrating seas of unicorns frolicking across the prairie, rainbow dust in their wake?

[DFW]

15. Mass unemployment led to the rise of Hitler

After the war, measures were implemented to try to avoid mass unemployment, and they were far-sighted enough to imagine emergencies that would require instant funds above and beyond normal unemployment insurance.

Here, ALL parties work on polishing their image. Sometimes, they accidentally get themselves a sensible, charismatic leader who is so capable that the country does really well in spite of its cumbersome bureaucracy and nasty infighting inside the parties. Helmut Schmidt, the Social Democrat, was the perfect leader for Germany in his time. Well-educated, fluent in English, a true European. He talked on the phone with his "conservative (not really" counterpart Giscard in Paris almost daily. Giscard was also fluent in English, something sorely missed until Macron came along. Schmidt lost his post ironically enough because the left wing of his party insisted on going farther left than his coalition partner, the Free Democrats, wanted to go. They bolted to the CDU (Merkel's party), and thus took over the Chancellor's seat.

In the last election, Merkel's CDU scored well, but not well enough to rule on their own. The most sensible coalition would have been with the Greens and the FDP. But the FDP has now been led by an ambitious guy who seems to have dirty ties to the fossil fuel industry. He suddenly broke off coalition talks because both the conservatives and the Greens were for ditching fossil fuel and nuclear energy in favor of renewable energy. By themselves, the Greens were too weak to form a coalition by themselves, and the CDU had said no way would they consider a coalition with the far right AfD or the the far Left "die Linken." So, they had to crawl back to the incredibly weakened Social Democrats to extend their "grand coalition," even though the Social Democrats had so lost their way that the only slogan they could come up with was "mehr Gerechtigkeit (more justice)," which meant just about nothing. This is a party used to scoring 40% in elections, and in 2017, they barely got 20% (and deservedly so, says my solidly SPD wife, who voted Green last time).

Next year, Merkel says that after four terms, she has had enough--unfortunately. There are three men vying for the position of chancellor candidate of the party. Two are arrogant "it's my turn" types. The third is the more reasonable governor of my State, North Rhein-Westfalia. The elected party head, Annette Kramp-Karrenbauer, couldn't muster up enough of a profile to keep her (duly won by party election) party chairmanship/chancellor candidate position. The best person, would be Ursula von der Leyen, who is so smart and capable, the machos freaked out. After failing to make her fade in the hopeless position as defense minister, shipper off to Brussels to head the European Commission, another (usually) dead-end position. She would be a brilliant chancellor, but we have practically no chance of her party selecting her. Two brilliant women in a row as chancellor of Germany? Horrors, what do they think we're trying to do here? Be sensible or something? Merkel surprised them all with her pragmatism and level-headedness. The people think she's great.

"Can't have more of THAT can we? America could have had Hillary, and instead got Trump. See? Even the Americans aren't pragmatic or level-headed. Why should we be?"

Typical European politics--when you have a logical good choice, look for any way to avoid making it.

[jaxexpat]

18. My wife and I vacationed in Germany in October 2001.

Plane nearly empty both ways. We'd move to Germany if we could. I think highly of A. Merkel, especially given her reaction to the surprise massage. And her level headedness in the face of America's Trumpian desertion of the world stage has pretty well held the planet together during our convalescence. Thanks for the tutorial. The struggles of democracy to persist should be required reading always.

[DFW]

25. It's nowhere under control here. Here's an informative Washington Post article for you:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/covid-unemployment-europe-furloughs/2020/10/10/5573fbee-026c-11eb-b92e-029676f9ebec_story.html

[diva77]

3. predictions?

[DFW]

5. CNN could save themselves a fortune by doing that

But then what would Wolf Blitzer do with himself? On second thought, don’t answer that!

[DarthDem]

8. Reasonable

You may have meant to include CO in your Senate count. Maybe I read right over it.

This could be 2008 again in some ways. I highly doubt it's 2016. Fingers crossed.

Stay safe, ok?

[DFW]

11. You are quite right. I completely forgot about CO.

It's a good thing John Hickenlooper doesn't read DU. He would never have forgiven me!

[DarthDem]

21. Probably he would

[ananda]

10. Makes sense

That is a good analysis in my view.

[BlueMTexpat]

13. MT is a possible

gain in the Senate. I haven't given up there yet.

[DFW]

17. Quite correct

I was remiss in not including it in the second group.

[MissB]

14. Any guesses on MT's senate seat?

Just curious

[DFW]

16. That one seems a genuine tossup

Could go either way. I should have included it in the second group for sure.

[BlueMTexpat]

19. The latest polls have the

three most important MT races, Senate, House and Governor, either tied or within one point.

In fact, in at least one recent poll, Biden was just three percentage points lower than Covidiot-in-Chief! Wouldn't it be loverly if he actually won the state?

I've been contributing to ALL of these races - and some others - in MT, as well as to Biden-Harris and other Senate elections!

So I'm keeping my fingers very crossed.

[DFW]

20. I contributed to Bullock in the Montana Senate race

I'm not familiar enough with the other two to have gotten involved.

[BlueMTexpat]

22. Good for you!

And thanks!

Kathleen Williams has been a state legislator from Butte for many years! She is great! Very intelligent. She reminds me of Elizabeth Warren in many ways.

I don't know Mike Cooney as well as I do Bullock and Williams! But his opponent for the Governor's slot is the terrible awful horrible Greg Gianforte, the one who assaulted a reporter in 2017. He's a transplanted NJ resident who is as RW as they come.

[DFW]

23. Gianforte's name certainly rings a bell

What a horrible piece of crap he is!

[Wounded Bear]

24. A rational prediction, and I'd say quite feasible...

Devil is in the details, of course, but I approve this message.