The election is close to over in the Sun Belt

[WSHazel]

The following is the 2020 early vote as a percent of 2016 total vote.

TX: 108%
NC: 95%
GA: 93.7%
FL: 90.8%
AZ: 86.5%
NV: 91.2%

The Midwest states of WI (63%), MI (53%), OH (52%) and PA (39%) still have a lot of vote left to get.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

I think this is why none of the candidates or top surrogates are in the South today. They are targeting GOTV in the South, and bringing the big names to the Midwest. Let's bring it home.

[Marius25]

1. How does that mean close to over?

Doesn't mean all those states are going to Biden.

[WSHazel]

2. It means there is not a lot of vote left to get

Obviously continue targeted GOTV efforts by phone, text and email, but the vast majority of the votes for this year's election have already been cast in the Sun Belt swing states. How big can NC's turnout get? 105% of 2016? There are maybe another 500,000 votes left to be cast in North Carolina. There are probably 2.8-3.0 million in Ohio.

[Marius25]

4. They're expecting around 160 million votes total.

[unc70]

8. NC officials expect another million ballots

Kamala here last night. Trump here last night and back today. There are still a lot of votes left in NC. Turnout is currently 61%. About three million are registered and have not voted.

[dixiegrrrrl]

5. The election has been happening for weeks.

It's been a process, not the one day event we've been used to.

In fact, some voting may be happening Wed. if the power down here stays off tomorrow.

[The Magistrate]

3. Good Analysis, Ma'am

[beachbumbob]

6. Midwest is safe Biden wins (ex Ohio) as long as voters vote, the sunbelt is yet to be determined

but high voter outcome favors democrats

[spooky3]

7. I agree with your point but the electorate is larger than in

2016, and I think the % turnout will be higher. Also, given that FL and Georgia are toss ups, just a tiny % flipped makes a difference.

[WSHazel]

9. I don't think we are saying significantly different things

When you are down to the last 10-15% of the vote, it comes down to targeted GOTV.

I personally think turnout will be higher than 2016, but I don't think it will blow it away. I also think there is a potential upside scenario where a few points of Trump's vote bails because it looks like he has lost already. A lot of Trump's 2016 vote were casual voters that may just skip this year. I personally know a couple of voters like this.

[leftyladyfrommo]

10. I wonder how many Republicans that don't like Trump

but Don't want to vote Democratic ticket will just stay home?