538's Forecast goes to 90-9

[Johnny2X2X]

Best it's been. I think it will finish within a point of here. 91-9 perhaps or at best 91-8.

I'll be honest, I have cited Silver from a few weeks ago when he said that if the election was that day it would probably be 95-5 for Biden. The fact that we're not going to get to that means Trump did close the gap in some swing states slightly.

So Trump has a 1 in 11 chance of winning according to this model.

[NewJeffCT]

1. They had Hillary in the upper 60s if I recall?

going into election day.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. Yup

They had a really good model in 2016, had Hillary at 70%, Trump had a 1 in 3 chance to win in 2016 and everything lined up right for him to win. He has a 1 in 11 chance this time around.

538's model is pretty conservative. And the inputs to it are the polls, many of which changed their methods to account for 2016, so it should be stronger this time.

[TwilightZone]

5. 71/28

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Up slightly from a couple days prior, though Silver noted that Trump had momentum that might not show up in the polls.

[getagrip_already]

3. I thought he said once he wouldn't let it go beyond 1 in 10?

Maybe I'm dreaming, but I thought early on he said he didn't want to make a result in either direction seem like too sure a thing so he was going to stop the prediction if it passed that point. Maybe since it's the last day and only one point it's ok?

Anyway, the snake chart now shows GA as light blue. It's no longer light yellow.

[Shermann]

4. Trump has to flip five blue states on that chart and keep all the reds

Good luck with that.

[TheBlackAdder]

6. It would be nice if 538 did an Election Night forecast, as to who will lead by 11:59PM.

[malaise]

7. Greedy me wanted 95%

but I'll settle for 91%
ByeDon!

[Happy Hoosier]

8. There has been a SLIGHT reversion to mean.

But we're in a good position. I'm nervous as hell, but hopeful.