Monday! Last pre-election poll review update. Updated at midnight - this is it.
Last edited Tue Nov 3, 2020, 01:20 AM - Edit history (13)
Those who are sick of polls - don't read this. But - it is all good news. Watch for a few more tweaks this evening and late tonight.
Chilly day today in western NC!
1 MORE DAY and I will retire this thing, but it's been fun to document the run up to the election and demonstrate how consistent the polling remains. We will have our first pretty good freeze this week. Let's freeze out as many repubs as possible on Tuesday!
538 - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
Oct 12 - Joe 86/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of popular vote.
Oct 13 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs. 53.5% popular vote
Oct 14 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of popular vote
Oct 15 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote
Oct 16 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs. 53.5% of the popular vote
Oct 17 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.6% of the popular vote
Oct 18 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.6% of the popular vote
Oct 19 - Joe 88/100 chance of winning, 348 EVs, 53.6% of popular vote.
Oct 20 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote.
Oct 21 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, 53.4% of the popular vote
Oct 22 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote.
Oct 23 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.4% of the popular vote.
Oct 24 - Joe 86/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote.
Oct 25 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote.
Oct 26 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 344 EVs, 53.3% of popular vote
Oct 27 - Joe 88/100 chance of winning, 344 EVs, 53.3% of popular vote
Oct 28 - Joe 88/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote
Oct 29 - Joe 89/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote
Oct 30 - Joe 90/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote
Oct 31 - Joe 90/100 chance of winning, 348 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote
Nov 1 - Joe 89/100 chance of winning, 348 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote
today - Nov 2 - Joe 89/100 chance of winning, 348 EVs, 53.4% of the popular vote
Essentially rock steady for 22 days. Today the site is flipping back and forth from "favored" to "clearly favored" - polls must be coming in to tweak their aggregate. Currently "favored"
Sam Wang Princeton - https://election.princeton.edu/
Oct 12 - Joe metamargin +6.3, estimate 369 EVs.
Oct 13 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 359 EVs
Oct 14 - Joe metamargin +6.0, est 358 EVs
Oct 15 - Joe metamargin +6.1, est 357 EVs
Oct 16 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 351 EVs
Oct 17 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 353 EVs
Oct 18 - Joe metamargin +5.8, est 356 EVs
Oct 19 - Joe metamargin +5.7, est 351 EVs
Oct 20 - Joe metamargin +5.4, est 356 EVs
Oct 21 - Joe metamargin +5.4, est 357 EVs
Oct 22 - Joe metamargin +5.6, est 362 EVs
Oct 23 - Joe metamargin +5.5, est 358 EVs
Oct 24 - Joe metamargin +5.5, est 357 EVs
Oct 25 - Joe metamargin +5.4, 360 EVs
Oct 26 - Joe metamargin +5.6, 354 EVs
Oct 27 - Joe metamargin +5.9, 356 EVs
Oct 28 - Joe metamargin +5.8, 350 EVs
Oct 29 - Joe metamargin +5.8, 356 EVs
Oct 30 - Joe metamargin +5.7, 353 EVs
Oct 31 - Joe metamargin +5.6, 352 EVs
Nov 1 - Joe metamargin +5.7, 353 EVs
today - No 2 - Joe metamargin +5.4, 351 EVs
essentially rock steady for 22 days, with just some slight bobbing about, Sam's EVs now essentially a match for TPM.
The Economist - https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
Oct 12 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, currently at 54.2% of popular vote
Oct 13 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, currently at 54.3% of popular vote.
Oct 14 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54.3% of popular vote
Oct 15 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54% of popular vote.
Oct 16 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote.
Oct 17 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 18 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 19 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.2% of the popular vote
Oct 20 - Joe 93/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 21 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.2% of the popular vote
Oct 22 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, 54% of the popular vote
Oct 23 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54.1% of the popular vote
Oct 24 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 340 EVs, 53.9% of the popular vote
Oct 25 - Joe 94/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.5% of the popular vote
Oct 26 - Joe 95/100 chance of winning, 352 EVs, 54.5% of the popular vote
Oct 27 - Joe 96/100 chance of winning, 356 EVs, 54.4% of the popular vote
Oct 28 - Joe 96/100 chance of winning, 356 EVs, 54.4% of the popular vote
Oct 29 - Joe 95/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 30 - Joe 96/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.2% of the popular vote
Oct 31 - Joe 96/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Nov 1 - Joe 96/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.5% of the popular vote
today - Nov 2 - Joe 96/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.2% of the popular vote
election day estimate Joe 54.2%
Steady, and holding, on day 22. a bit of flipping between 96-95, was at 97 briefly a few times.
For the 22st day in a row, no significant sign at all of race tightening. Watch for my updates on this post throughout the day as edits.
The current electoral vote totals from the three sites are 349, 351 and 350. Essentially spot on!
Bonus addition - where the election was in 2016 on 538 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
1 day before the election in 2016 was Nov 7. Hillary was at 71% chance, 301 EVs, 48 to 45 percent popular vote, 3 point separation - and this was 11 days after the Comey letter surfaced - the full effect is showing.. Joe has 50 more EVs, 20 percent higher chance, and 53 vs 48 percent popular vote - 5 point separation, with Joe well over 50 percent - something Hillary never reached. The impact of the Comey letter was fading a bit at this point.
Economist key state margins currently are PA +6, FL +3, WI +8, MI +8, NC +2, MN +9, AZ +2, NV +7, NH +9, Iowa -1, GA +1, OH -1 and TX -2
Tomorrow is election day! Just a few more days to get active, get busy! Get out the vote, volunteer, phone bank.....
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