Might as well as practically call NC to Biden already

[clutterbox1830]

Not to sound overconfident, but with the latest NC early voting numbers, I find it really hard for Trump to win NC.
All of the Democratic counties have turned out in record numbers.

As of 11/2, WAKE county (home to Raleigh) is reporting 68.2% of all registered voters in that county have voted. This is the biggest county in NC and this total accounts for 540,006 votes before election day! This is higher turnout (in both voters and %) than the total votes made in 2016 for this county. This county went +20.6 to Clinton in 2016.

In fact, most of the other democratic counties are reporting record high turnouts in 2020.

COUNTY NAME | % of register voters who already voted | Total Votes | 2016 differential with Clinton v Trump
CHATHAM | 75.2% | 43,381 | +10.1 Clinton
WAKE | 68.2% | 540,006 | +20.6 Clinton
BUNCOMBE | 68.1% | 140,413 | +14.6 Clinton
ORANGE | 67.7% | 75,704 | +51.2 Clinton
DURHAM | 67.2% | 163,251 | +60.4 Clinton
MECKLENBURG (Charlotte) | 62.1% | 490,115 | +29.9 Clinton
GUILFORD | 61.9% | 236,483 | +30.1 Clinton
FORSYTH | 61.1% | 165,541 | +10.5 Clinton

We could suspect that these totals to go up at least by ~8% on election day. There are a number of Democratic counties that I didn't list. NC "Republican counties" are not turning out as much in comparison which is different from outer battleground states.
Unless all Republican counties can turnout above 75%, I don't see how Trump can make up this total.

[zackymilly]

1. I'm in NC and hoping, but I know my county will go to rump (Johnston). n/t

[ooky]

13. Me too. Pitt is crawling with magats.

But my family is going 5-0 with a straight Democratic ticket.

[Wounded Bear]

2. K & R...nt

[dchill]

3. K & R.

[Laelth]

4. I didn't know that Wake was bigger than Mecklenburg.

Interesting. Thank you for the analysis.

Of course, NC went for Obama in 2008, so this is no great shock. Flip GA and/or TX this year ... that will be a shock.

-Laelth

[clutterbox1830]

8. Wake is only barely larger than Mecklenburg and register voters

Wake county population - 1,112 million pop - 791,821 register voters
Mecklenburg county population - 1,111 million - 789,547 register voters

Early voting turnout in Mecklenburg is still very impression (62.1% - 490,115 votes). This is also higher than the total of votes counted for the county in 2016 in both votes and percentage.

[Laelth]

10. Blue NC! I love it. n/t

-Laelth

[NewJeffCT]

16. I just checked

In 2016, there were a total of 472,857 votes cast in Mecklenburg County and 527,624 in Wake County. (vs just EV now - 490,115 and 540,006)

If you use the same margins as 2016, it would be Biden 20.6 in Wake & 29.9 in M-burg, and Biden already has some decent gains.

Not sure it's enough to call it for Biden, but it's definitely encouraging.

[Laelth]

21. Very encouraging, yes. n/t

-Laelth

[Jspur]

18. I'm a Wake County resident and didn't find out until

this year that Wake had passed Mecklenburg county as the biggest county in NC.

[BernieBabies]

5. I'm in Chapel Hill, NC

I hope you are right. It would be awesome if our otherwise semi-backward state somehow saved the country.

[redstatebluegirl]

6. Not until all the votes are in. GOTV!

[nycbos]

7. Turn around three times and spit

[Thekaspervote]

9. Thx for posting..JMHO unlike GA & TX I think NC will go to the Dems. FL...who knows!

[clutterbox1830]

15. I think GA and FL are true tossup.

I hope polling is accurate since both have a slight Biden tilt. However, give both EV numbers I'm not so sure. TX is the same but with a slight tilt the other way. All that matters is GOTV on election day. I'm hoping think Biden will pickup one especially GA since the senate races will also swing that way too.

[exboyfil]

11. Win NC

We could lose both PA and AZ and still win.

[triron]

12. knr

[MyMission]

14. My red NC county won't go for Biden

But it's a smaller county, and full of red slime. Gives me a different perspective. I'm not that confident about a Biden victory in NC, more confident about Biden winning the presidency without NC support. Hopefully we keep Cooper and dump Tillis.

I do hope NC will turn blue for this election. It's the South, the Bible belt, where retirees and academics and military and rural and religious and evangelical and racist groups exist, which make up strange voting blocks.

And NC is really a purple state, we've had alternating party governors, senators, reps.
We elected a Dem governor while going for 45 in 2016. The blue wave is hitting NC, I've seen that on line, but not much where I live.

I'm more concerned about our local congressional race to replace Meadows. We've been ungerrymandered, and did have a Dem congressman before Meadows. Davis for Congress!

I am cautiously optimistic, but not at all confident in the results here. I've been disappointed too many times.

We'll know tomorrow or the next day!

[Jspur]

19. As a fellow NC resident I definitely feel what you are

saying. The last two presidential election cycles the republican candidate for president has won the state by 2-3 points. I'm hoping Biden can pull of the nail biter but it will be real close. I think Cooper is going to win for sure. Cunningham still has a chance of winning. I just hope he can pull it off.

[Polybius]

17. Republicans never liked early voting

They are mostly going tomorrow.

[NewJeffCT]

20. How is turnout in red counties compared to 2016?

Just curious