Betting Markets suggest very close race - Biden 279, Trump 259.

[Drunken Irishman]

Arizona has flipped for the first time in weeks and is now 50/50 on the consensus at electionbettingodds.com (though, at PredictIt, Trump is favored to win Arizona now at 52% - just barely above Biden).

It could be pre-election hedging that's caused the shift. Biden was +67 on PredictIt the other day but is now down to 62%, but still far out-pacing Trump, who's at 37%.

The markets currently feel pretty confident Trump will carry Georgia (61% favorite), North Carolina (54% favorite) and Florida (60% favorite), while Biden is still the favorite in Pennsylvania (60% - like Florida).

I am not sure what's led to the surge as the polls remain very favorable for Biden, especially in Florida, but I suspect they're mining early voting and seeing it as not as favorable in these states as it needs to be, which is something 538 and the other election forecast models do not gauge.

Like I said, it could also be pre-election hedging but they're definitely expecting a very close night where this election will come down to Pennsylvania. Whoever wins there wins the whole thing. Buckle up!

[RainCaster]

1. I don't care. It could be Biden 271 and I would still be happy

Really, as long as he wins, the margin doesn't matter.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. I agree but the closer the race, the easier it is to get it overturned in the courts.

If it comes down to Pennsylvania, and Biden wins it by five-plus points, yeah, it's not going to be an issue.

But if it comes down to Pennsylvania, and Biden is only up by a few thousand votes? Well that's not going to be fun for anyone.

Frankly, I don't buy it'll be that close.

[JonLP24]

2. I think Biden will get at least 330 electoral votes

At least.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. If the national polls are correct, I agree.

If Biden is at 7-10 points nationally, it's hard to imagine this election coming down to one state.

[Takket]

5. one of the things with betting lines..........

they do what they can to predict outcomes but are often times the result of public sentiment as much as logic. that's why betting lines constantly move because if you say the Celtics are a 10 point Favorite over the Lakers and all the logic says its true, but the public all bets the Lakers getting ten points, logic be damned the betting house if going to change the line to 5 points to get even money on each side. so if setting Biden at 279 is where they need to go to get even money on both sides, that's where they will set the number. this could simply be the result off too many overconfident drumpf voters betting on drumpf.

[PCIntern]

7. Absolutely correct

The bookies want the money split evenly. They’re not setting the outcome, they are anticipating fan favorite betting.

[David__77]

6. It's fascist 4chanish types.

I don't think that that is very good barometer.

[Quixote1818]

8. The betting markets are not based on logic this year. It's a bunch of Trump fanboys who are only

tuned into their fake websites who have no idea what they are doing. Way off base because of what occurred in 2016 and because they don't believe in actual math and polling anymore.

I ran across this:


“Support for Donald Trump in the betting market is likely to keep growing over the next couple of days as more and more people look to place their bets. Betting on all events intensifies the closer you get the result. A lot of more novice bettors will opt for Donald Trump largely down the greater returns, whereas, bettors willing to wager larger volumes will be more inclined to take any perceived value on Joe Biden winning. Essentially comparing the bet to what could be made via other investment opportunities.”

https://www.oddschecker.com/us/insight/specials/politics/20201102-2020-us-presidential-election-odds-66pp-of-wagers-this-weekend-on-trump-beating-biden

[Drunken Irishman]

16. Thanks. I agree - it seems there's a lot of people betting with blinders on.

I guess we'll find out soon enough.

[Turin_C3PO]

9. I'll take the victory but

I hope it’s a far wider spread.

[Amishman]

10. PredictIt is full of irrational idiots

Betting yard signs and not polls / data.

Fine by me, irrational betting makes for easy money

[David__77]

12. The word "irrational" occurred to me as well.

...

[Quixote1818]

11. Remember when they had Sanders taking the nomination last year. nt

[JonLP24]

13. Actually they shifted toward Biden especially in the Southeast and closer to Super Tuesday

You have to realize Sanders lead in the national polls when the primary began.


Democratic Candidates Fear Bernie Sanders Could Become 'Unstoppable' After Super Tuesday, Former White House Adviser Says

With Sen. Bernie Sanders expected to win Saturday's Nevada caucuses, moderate candidates will be nervously eyeing Super Tuesday as their last chance to derail his progressive campaign, a former presidential adviser and political commentator has said.

https://www.newsweek.com/democratic-candidates-fear-bernie-sanders-unstoppable-super-tuesday-white-house-adviser-david-gergen-1488414?amp=1

Sanders sends Democratic establishment into panic mode

LAS VEGAS – Moderate Democrats watched in horror as Bernie Sanders soared to a landslide victory in Nevada.

It wasn't the win that was surprising — it was the walloping Sanders gave his opponents, his ability to dominate among Latino voters, and the momentum he gained moving into South Carolina and Super Tuesday. The performance sent already worried Democrats into a full-blown panic.

“In 30-plus years of politics, I’ve never seen this level of doom. I’ve never had a day with so many people texting, emailing, calling me with so much doom and gloom,” said Matt Bennett of the center-left group Third Way after Sanders' win in Nevada.

https://www.newsweek.com/democratic-candidates-fear-bernie-sanders-unstoppable-super-tuesday-white-house-adviser-david-gergen-1488414?amp=1

Entering the debate before SC there was a 3 way race in South Carolina between Sanders, Biden, and Tom Steyer who invested a lot of time and money in the state. Biden attacked Steyer over his investments in private prisons sinking Steyer. All of the candidates went after Bernie Sanders including relitigating the Cold War. Anyways it was enough to give Biden a solid win the state. Before Super Tuesday several candidates dropped out and endorsed Biden which helped him on Super Tuesday. Around that time PredictIt favored Biden.

After Nevada Biden had a 1 in 6 chance of winning the primary.

[a kennedy]

14. I JUST WANT THE SENATE.........oooooops and for Joe to be President.

[Stallion]

15. Spend 2 Minutes Reading Predictit Comments and You'll realize Most are "Morans"

it has no basis in reality

[tman]

17. Not really. PI is swinging all over the place. Not an actual reflection of 'betting markets'.

[Rstrstx]

18. Some people with $$ are probably trying to buy momentum

There has been movements of several cents in the last day for no apparent reason, all towards the GOP. If I had to guess I’d say it’s a few (or more than a few) wealthy people are trying to give the illusion of a tight race by putting money on the Repub candidates. Sort of the betting market equivalent of an astroturfed grass-roots movement.

Still, some of the numbers make sense. Arizona keeps swinging back and forth on one site, I’d say it and NC are the two closest states right now. If I had to make a map of the EC results I’d have one that includes WI, MI, PA, NE-2, AZ and NC. One that’s closer to 300 than 350 EVs. I’d probably set the bottom of Biden’s numbers at 279 assuming there’s no funny business.

The evidence for AZ and NC is backed up by early voting totals, I feel more comfortable about NC than I do about FL looking at the early voting totals. In states that break things down by party registration, in NC registered Dems have outvoted registered Repubs by over 257k while in FL Dems are only 108k ahead and Repubs generally outvote Dems on Election Day there. The numbers out of Miami-Dade are also not so great. In AZ registered Dems are just under 10k ahead but they don’t break down in-person vs mail-in. But AZ has a lot more independents and given the 2018 results AZ (and NV) Dems have over performed. There’s also probably some data that indies are favoring Biden there.

Like Nate Silver has said there would have to be a much larger polling miss this time around for Trump to win and the pollsters don’t want to be embarrassed again. This sort of reminds me of 2004 and 2012, only with PA replacing OH. We should know by tomorrow night if it’s closer to 2004 (a squeaker, only this time favoring Biden) or 2012, where PA ends up being just another state that broke for Biden.