538 Election Day summary forecast

[Roland99]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Our 2020 forecasts — presidential, Senate, House — are all now officially frozen, meaning we won’t be ingesting any new polls or updating the odds in any race. At the end of a loooooong campaign, here’s where we stand: Joe Biden is favored to beat President Trump (though Trump still has a 1-in-10 chance); Democrats have a 3-in-4 shot at taking back the Senate; and the House will most likely remain under Democratic control (Democrats might even expand their majority by a few seats). The big picture is clear: The overall electoral environment favors Democrats, which is one reason they have decent odds of controlling the presidency, Senate and House (a 72 percent chance, according to our forecast). Of course, there’s always the chance of a polling error, which tends to be correlated from state to state when it happens. Trump needs a bigger-than-normal error in his favor, but the real possibility that polls are underestimating Trump’s support is why he still has a path to win reelection. A 10 percent chance of winning is not a zero percent chance. In fact, that is roughly the same odds that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)

According to our final presidential forecast, Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping-point state, and a lot of Biden’s chances in the Electoral College hinge on what happens in the Keystone State. He leads Trump there by about 5 points in our polling average, but it’s not as large a margin as Biden might like. Last week, we gamed out what would happen if Biden lost Pennsylvania but won other Midwestern states like Wisconsin. (TL;DR there’s no clear Plan B for Biden.) Want to run through your own hypothetical scenarios? You now can with our interactive forecast that lets you explore the ways each candidate could win. We’re hoping to use this tool ourselves on election night to better understand Biden and Trump’s paths to victory, especially if the outstanding vote takes a while to be counted.
Unless Trump or Biden has a really good night on Nov. 3, it’s pretty unlikely, though, that either of them will hit the 270 electoral votes needed to win by the end of the night. That doesn’t necessarily mean, though, that we won’t have a pretty good idea of who won. It’s all going to come down to how close some of the key battleground races are and whether a representative share of the vote can be reported, which won’t always be possible given the challenges of the pandemic. We’re tracking when we expect results in every state.

[SheltieLover]

1. K&R!

Ty!

[joshcryer]

2. If we take the Senate we must end the filibuster immediately.

And reverse everything in the first 100 days of Biden's Presidency.

It must be done for the sake of the country. I do not give two fucks about anything else. It must be done, immediately, irrevocably, and quickly. It has to be done fast.

If Biden takes Texas he must expand the SCOTUS and he must immediately change reapportionment to put 1000 Congresspeople in the House.

[Johnny2X2X]

3. Read this too

Nate seems to bend over backwards to make it seem close. And then he goes onto discuss things that aren't in his model. Voter turnout isn't in his model. Why? Voter turnout is one of the biggest indicators there is, put it in your model Nate.

89-10 I think would go to 98-2 when expected turnout is factored in.