IF Peters hangs on in MI, it looks like the best we can do is 50-50 (if Bullock wins, Collins loses

[Celerity]

AL Jones lost (as expected)

so we are at 46

we won in CO and AZ

so we are at 48

now the bad news

SC Graham romped to a win (polls were dead wrong)
NC (AGAIN) Tillis looks to have eked out a win (Cunningham sex scandal fucked him, it look like, another one the polls were fucked on)
IA Pigfucker Ernst won
KS Bollier got beaten (sibelius would have had a much better shot, not happy with her at all)
TN we got blown away (so raging, as I have been for a year, that Tim McGraw has now TWICE turned down running for open seats in a 2 year period, after promising for a decade plus he would run when he is 50yo (he is 53 now)
KY Traitor McTurtle won
TX Hegar lost
GA Ossoff looks to have lost
GA Special. Warnock made the runoff, but only got 29% or so, he will get pounded in the runoff I fear by the criminal slag Loeffler

wild card

Gross in Alaska, but that is a real long shot


this leaves us needing Peters to hang on, and he is trailing atm (Detroit hopefully cares him over the top)



and then Bullock and Gideon need to win

to get to 50-50

[msongs]

1. collins appears to be thumping gideon nt

[Celerity]

3. MSNBC has said all night that ranked choice voting will doom Collins

[jcgoldie]

2. Ossoff could get a runoff as well

Once the Fulton votes are counted.

[Celerity]

5. perhaps but the margin is fairly big, I hope you are right

[jcgoldie]

9. Its the same 300 k that Biden is down by

NYT thinks thats surmountable... in fact Ossoff is in a much better position because he doesnt need to win just get Perdue under 50%.

[ybbor]

4. Looks like Collins is gonna win

We’re fucked!

[Celerity]

6. Ranked choice voting may save us there

[ybbor]

10. I know

But she is currently above 50% so it doesn’t matter

[Amishman]

12. not looking good for that

She's at 50.4%, 80% reporting, and the lower reporting % counties are red.

[Celerity]

18. if she (Collins) is at 50% + 1 vote after the initial vote, then its over, correct?

[Polybius]

7. Any chance that the early votes haven't been counted yet?

That might flip some results.

[LovingA2andMI]

8. As a Michigander....

Peters down by 350K+ at this point is a LOST even if Detroit comes in at strong. Sorry, it's just not enough as it is not like John James is not going to get ANY VOTES in Detroit. This Michigan seat is likely a goner.

That sucks for Peters. He's a good guy but his campaign here was just not it this year.

[demmiblue]

11. I think he'll win, but we will see. n/t

[qanda]

13. Isn't it about the same as the Trump vote?

Are you saying Trump will win Michigan?

[LovingA2andMI]

15. I'm Saying...

It's Looking VERY tight and when it was VERY tight in 2016, we were QUITE disappointed.

Michigan is either CLEAR or It's Not. There is not a "Middle" as a voter here for over 35 years.

[helpisontheway]

16. Crap so there is a chance Biden could lose MI

I really thought Michigan would be blue. Especially with a popular governor. Ugh

[maryellen99]

20. It would be because of backlash against Whitmer and the lockdowns nt

[radius777]

23. Kornacke and Carville said the vote coming in now is

'same day' voting which leans red, but the next batches are going to be heavily blue. Carville said he spoke w/Granholm (former Michigan governor) and they feel good Biden (and I would think Peters as well) will pull it out.

[LovingA2andMI]

26. Well....We Will See BUT...

Here's the thing. The Peters/James race, Peters SHOULD be A LOT closer. The worry is Detroit at this point. To be frank, James does not have to win or overwhelming take Detroit. He just has to shave off votes and yes, some Detroiters who are African-American MIGHT vote for James because, he is a empty suit and African-American.

Crossing my fingers for Gary but the numbers ARE WORRISOME. Period.

As fo Biden, Split Ticket in Urbanized areas. He must be the Split from this point forward. Chance at this point 50/50.

[radius777]

29. Remember, there are still millions of votes to be counted.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-us-election-results/michigan#president
....
Michigan may not report a winner on election night, and the secretary of state has indicated that processing early votes could means results aren’t close to final until Friday, Nov. 6. Early returns in Michigan have often skewed to the right, as Democratic-leaning Detroit tends to be among the last areas to return ballots.
....
How many votes have been counted?
3.81M out of 5.03-5.56M estimated total votes
Michigan is currently midway through the vote-counting process. Bloomberg News estimates that between 69% and 76% of the votes state-wide have been counted. Of the votes that remain to be counted, a majority of them come from places that leaned Democratic in 2016.

It's not just Detroit but also suburbs, which have trended blue all over the country.

[Celerity]

17. if Peters goes down, and/or McConnell is the Majority leader, Biden is fucked, SCOTUS is fucked

any major legislation is fucked


and gaining seats in 2022 is not a given

our best shots will be (bold are best)

North Carolina open
PA Toomey
FL (Rubio)
IA open unless Grassley runs as a 89 year old
GA special winner in 2020
WI Johnson (omg, he needs to GO)

but we have some to defend too (I do not see losing any f these, maybe 1 at most)

NV, NH, CO, AZ, VT (might be open and the popular Rethug VT governor might run)


It is going to be INSANE hostility if the Rethugs control the Senate. Biden will be utterly kneecapped.

If Breyer retires or dies, the court will stay 6 -2 hard RW as long as they have control of the Senate. Same thing if Sotomayor dies (chronic diabetes that is getting worse), it could be 6-1 hard RW for ages

[madaboutharry]

14. It really hurts that someone as unqualified as Ernst beat a smart person like Greenfield.

Republicans have the worst people.

[Celerity]

19. I am pissed at Tim McGraw in TN, Sibelius in KS, Stein and/or Foxx in NC (Cunningham and his

sex scandal never would have happened, Tillis was a sitting duck), Susan Rice in Maine, Vilsack in Iowa, Sally Yates and Abrams in GA, and Begich (ex Senator) in Alaska. ALL refused to run and all were the best candidates (flip a coin between Stein and Foxx).

Beto I will give a pass on, as Cornyn was never going to lose.

I was on this for well over year here on DU.

[radius777]

27. I read on another board that Biden's comments about energy/climate change

in the debate may've shifted the dynamics of the race, as the last few polls showed movement away from what it was all along, a tie, to an easy win for the R's.

[demmiblue]

21. Bullock loses.

Link to tweet

This just sucks.

[Celerity]

22. yes, and Collins will win, so we are FUCKED

[demmiblue]

24. Yeah, those of us who rely on the ACA are fucked...

as well as those with private insurance who also benefit from it's protections. Millions upon millions will be affected.

Yes, I know that the fate of the ACA is pretty much a done deal, but now there is no hope for something comparable.

All judicial appointments will be blocked, including any potential Supreme Court seat. Etc.

The Senate will block legislation that actually helps people. People will then get frustrated about the government. Then we have to deal with the FUCKING ELECTORAL COLLEGE in four years.

[radius777]

25. Can't believe how Collins would win,

she's terrible. Wonder what Maine voters like in her. Gideon seems so much better. And Biden likely will carry Maine by a solid margin.

[Celerity]

28. Maine elected that shitehawk nazi LePage as governor