Why is the state polling off 16 and 20 all in drumpfs favor

[Tribetime]

Is that really possivle how gullible is our press

[Eyeball_Kid]

1. The November Surprise! n/t

[Drunken Irishman]

2. We have no clue if it's off.

Biden is likely winning Arizona by a larger margin than the polls indicated. He's doing better than the average of polls showed him doing in Minnesota. He won Colorado by double-digits. He may win Georgia by about the level the polls suggested.

We do not have a clue what Biden's final vote total will be in WI, MI and PA.

We do know that FL, NC and GA were all very, very close and, what do you know, so were the results.

[Turin_C3PO]

5. That's what it looks like to me too.

Trump is overperforming a little bit, I believe, but it’s still within the MOEs of the polls.

[Tribetime]

6. Arizona was slightly favored for Biden which is what happened

But there was plenty of other states that was slightly favored for buying that were way off and some states that were dead even that were way off always in Trump's favor both now in 2016

[Drunken Irishman]

10. Again, we have to see how the votes break.

Florida was always too close to call. Same with Georgia and North Carolina. We don't know what margin Biden is going to see in Michigan or Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.

It's possible there is a polling error and polling is becoming increasingly unreliable. It's also possible the race breaks down similarly to how many expected - Biden winning by 5-6 points nationally and over 300 Electoral Votes.

We'll just have to wait and see how the votes break in PA, MI and WI.

[Tribetime]

11. I lost my faith sorry im done

[Drunken Irishman]

12. Aight.

[radius777]

13. One would think Biden's large national lead would

'pull' him over at least some of those close states (TX, FL, GA, NC).

The Rust Belt again appears to be a big polling miss. The WI and MI polls had Biden way up. Something is going on with this. Either the polls are wrong - or they're correct and something else nefarious is going on.

[kurtcagle]

3. Its all "margin of error"

But only in Republican states that don't provide audit trails on their electronic voting machines. Its why McConnell was so dead set against election security.

[Celerity]

4. because too many people listen to utter hacks like Charlie Cook

[mr_lebowski]

7. There's a very simple explanation possible ...

Not saying this IS the case, but it's certainly possible:

People who say they are going to vote for Trump turn out to be slightly more likely in practice to actually follow through and do so ... than people who say they are going to vote for Biden.

And the margin of error does not account for that. It's not impossible to do so but I'm quite sure it would involve a greatly increased reported MOE vs the one's we see.

[Yavin4]

8. Trump and the Republicans are cheating.

I don't how exactly, but they're cheating.

[Tribetime]

9. Might as well get rid of all polling because it's all a bunch of crap