Biden just pulled into the lead in Wisconsin at 4:45 am!!

[AdamGG]

Milwaukee absentee ballots just reported

[appalachiablue]

1. TY Milwaukee!

[onetexan]

2. Numbers & source?

[MFM008]

4. Cnn

Just now
Milwaukee just came in.

[sweetloukillbot]

8. Kenosha as well

Nate Silver is reporting Biden is up 20K. Over 50% now.
Only Green Bay outstanding.

[MFM008]

3. This is heartening

To go to bed on...

[joshcryer]

5. God bless Milwaukee for counting all night long.

God bless every poll worker.

[Cha]

10. Cheers to that!

[LizBeth]

12. +1

[joshcryer]

15. Julietta Henry, the Election Commisioner came on CNN and said...

...they had planned to count until 6AM. God Bless her and her team.

[LizBeth]

16. Wow, good for them.

[madeup64]

6. This is such good news

[bdamomma]

7. oh

please Wisconsin go for Joe.

I just woke up to see what is going on, keep counting those ballots!!!!

[Cha]

9. Mahalo.. heart pounding stuff!

[AdamGG]

11. If this holds, he just needs one more state to go over the top - MI, PA, GA, NC

Any one of these and he is at 270. Once everything is counted, the odds are good that one (probably PA or MI) will drop.

Then, there will be Dump's legal challenges, but if he's challenging certified state counts, I like our odds.

The odds for the Senate are looking bleaker, but if Collins drops and late returns can somehow put NC over the edge, then we'd be there.

[LizBeth]

13. +1

[progree]

14. I'm one vote short if wins NC, NV, and WI and loses the rest (MI, PA, GA)

I get 254 EV with Nevada (6) and WI (10), so need 16 more EV to make 270

Electoral votes
MI 16
PA 20
NC 15
GA 16

[LizBeth]

18. Biden got 1 EV from a partial state maybe NE?

[progree]

19. I'm confused, I get 238 EV from Yahoo site, with NE 4 EV Trump, 1 EV Biden, and Maine:

Maine: 3 EV for Biden and apparently 1 EV undecided?
https://www.yahoo.com/elections

The 238 doesn't include NV and WI. With those two its 254 EV with 16 still needed

and only MI(16), PA(20), NC(15), and GA(16) left. Oh, and the 1 undecided? from Maine?

[LizBeth]

21. We need two states now. So sounds right. We were kinda saying with WI we need one state now.

[progree]

24. True, except NC not enuf for the other state /nt

[DeminPennswoods]

31. Yes, NE-2

nt

[Thekaspervote]

20. NE 2nd was called for Biden

[progree]

22. I've included that - please see my #19 --

[AdamGG]

41. I think you're leaving out the one EV he picked up be winning Omaha (Nevada's 2nd district)

And he's not going to lose PA.

What;s most maddening is that we likely haven't carried the Senate, which will hamstring Biden's ability to accomplish much. I understanding Joni Ernst winning, but winning by as high a margin as she did is suspicious. Mail sorting machines and other things have fucked with the results. Not realistic that the polls were this far off in some places and spot on in others. That's a sign of manipulation.

[progree]

42. Nope, I counted NE-2 for Biden when I wrote #14 and #19 above. Thanks. What I haven't

counted yet is ME-2. For Maine, I still have 3 EV for Biden, and one left undecided. AP is still showing 85% of the expected Maine vote in and ME-2 still undecided, though a 6 point margin for Biden there.

This nkpolitics1212 post agrees with my count https://www.democraticunderground.com/11044270

But since I wrote #19, it looks like MI(16 EV) is a win for Biden, taking us up to 270 EV. Maine-2 will be 271 EV.

with PA(20 EV), NC(15 EV) , and GA(16 EV) left, and I agree that PA looks good.

[progree]

43. I put all my chips on Greenfield to beat Ernst (Iowa), $2,000 contribution. Yet again I pick

the loser in my all on one or all on two picks for contributions. I am horrified by the Iowa loss, as I was watching the polls carefully.

Exception to my losing streak: Tony Evers of Wisconsin governor in 2018.

[progree]

17. Percent of the uncounted that we must win to win the state

Last edited Wed Nov 4, 2020, 08:31 AM - Edit history (2)

This information is from a post by videohead (https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214438579), posted at 414a ET, posting a tweet from Adam Miller (post doesn't give the time of the Tweet), so this might be quite old, but here it is.

For example, in PA, Trump is ahead by 700k votes, with 1.8 M votes left to count
I did the math of how much Biden needs to win (69%) :

I'll be trying to update this --

# PA: Trump is +700k, but 1.8m to count
Biden must win 1250K to 550K, so must win 1250K/1800K = 69% of the uncounted

# PA Update 721a ET - now 700K margin and 1.4 M left to count, which doesn't look good, but see post #30 where Nate Cohn says its looking good, the absentee ballots are coming out 78 to 21 in favor of Biden

# MI: Trump is +300k, but 1.8m to count
Biden must win 1050K to 750K, so must win 1050K/1800K = 58% of the uncounted

# MI Update 715a ET: Trump is +13K, but 530K left to count: Biden must win 51% of the uncounted

# NC: Trump is +77k, but 300k to count
Biden must win 188.5K to 111.5K, so must win 188.5K/300K = 63% of the uncounted

# GA: Trump is +100k, but 450k to count (So must win 275/450 = 61.1% of the uncounted)
Biden must win 275K to 175K, so must win 275K/450K = 61% of the uncounted

Keep in mind, those are mostly early/mail votes that favor Biden.— Adam Miller

If we win NV and WI, we still need 16 EV to get to 270. NC has 15, not enuf, but the other outstanding states ( MI(16), PA(20), and GA(16) ) do, GAWD what a squeaker )

(Note to myself: nor...xlsx sheet 4 top)

[Johnny2X2X]

23. MI has changed

Now a 70,000 vote lead for Trump. Still a lot of votes to count.

[progree]

25. Thanks! That helps the percent needed from the uncounted a lot

now where do I get the uncounted votes? Maybe if a state has say 2M total votes so far and that's 85% of the estimated total votes expected, I do a little math

Let X be the estimated total vote expected
85% of X = 2M
X = 2M/85% = 2.35 M estimated total vote expected
Ergo, 0.35 M left to count?

Sigh. I'm glad I had a nap.

Well heck, its just 4 states (MI, PA, NC, GA), assuming we've got NV and WI

New problem, the ones gotten by "others" affects the math, e.g. in PA Trump + Biden is 98.8% of the vote, grrr

Somebody oughtta be doing this somewhere

[progree]

32. MI Trump margin 12,526 (0.2%), Left to count: 530k, need win only 51% of what's left

From https://www.yahoo.com/elections gotten at 628a

[Roland99]

34. I think the 52/48 split is a minimum...

Link to tweet

[progree]

35. I just noticed that Trump's margin increased from 0.20% to 0.50% from 625am to 741am CT

I thought it was supposed to be going the other way.

I now need 52.5% of the remaining votes going to Biden.

From https://www.yahoo.com/elections

[Roland99]

36. tilting a bit more toward trump. I think we'll need more like 55/45 minimum

[progree]

38. Biden leads Michigan by 0.10%, 94% counted, 905a ET - AP

Biden `````````` Caligula
49.30% 2,487,838 49.20% 2,484,138

https://www.yahoo.com/elections (their source is AP)

[Roland99]

39. and that lowered the split needed. 53/47 now provides a nearly 30k win!

[onetexan]

26. Biden leads Nevada by just under 10K & still counting.

Good news WI & NV

[Rstrstx]

27. Yes but many more outstanding votes left in "Clinton" counties

Something like 180,000 are still left to be tallied in counties Clinton won versus 20,000 left in Trump’s 2016 counties. I’m presuming these are mail-in ballots and we know how those have been breaking.

[TigressDem]

28. Biden 49.4% Rump 49.1% with 95% reporting @ 5:44am CST

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=wisconsin+election+results+2020



Joe Biden Democratic Party 49.4% 1,585,171
Donald Trump Republican Party 49.1% 1,577,999

[SmartVoter22]

29. 6am not Green Bay absentee reports

Green Bay had a voter turnout of 84%, which is astounding.

The absentee votes are not yet reported, but that could call the state.

The other races wnet decidely red in Brown County, which Green Bay is the county seat.

We can hope.

[progree]

30. Nate Cohn says PA absentee ballots running way in favor of Biden.

Link to tweet

He says Biden is winning them 78-21. "The PA SOS says there are 1.4 million ballots left to count. If that's true, then Biden will net 800k votes, more than enough to overtake the president" and "most remaining eday votes are PHI/burbs"

[Roland99]

33. 20,700 vote Biden lead right now. 49.5 - 48.8

[progree]

37. NCarolina - If this is correct, we need 69% of the remaining vote to go to Biden

AP Decision Desk on North Carolina
Though Trump is correct that he held a 76,000-vote lead in the state early Wednesday, the race is too close to call and there are still about 200,000 mail-in ballots left to count. As long as those ballots are postmarked by Nov. 3, state election officials have until Nov. 12 to count them. And when it comes to mail ballots, Biden was far outperforming Trump. That means there’s a considerable number of ballots yet to be counted that could give Biden a lead.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/live-results-2020-election-day-trump-biden-050117825.html

[progree]

40. MICHIGAN - Biden leads by 0.2%, 10,067 votes 810a CT, 94% of the vote in

Biden ---------------## Caligula -------------------
49.30% 2,502,185 ## 49.10% 2,492,118

https://www.yahoo.com/elections (AP is their source)