General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsHow Can We Ever Trust Pollsters Again?
According to Nate Silver, Trump had a 10% chance of winning. Yet here we are, on Wednesday morning, and its still neck and neck.
What am I missing?
DumpTrump20202020
(109 posts)a lot of people become relaxed and stay home.
and in 2020, no excuse. You could have voted from your couch and people still didnt. Very sad. Too many people I know didn't vote. Shame on them.
redstatebluegirl
(12,265 posts)People here put so much stock in these damn polls, clearly they were not correct.
Ace Rothstein
(3,157 posts)Polling is dead until they get it right for 3 or so straight cycles.
doc03
(35,324 posts)I still think there are a lot of Trump voters that are ashamed to admit they would vote for him.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,661 posts)I haven't a clue why the polls were off, but I thought that they'd cleaned up their methodology after 2016. Either they didn't, or they still haven't figured out how to do it.
SomedayKindaLove
(529 posts)Before we know how much the polls are off.
crimycarny
(1,351 posts)I dont think the pollsters were that far off. I think there is voting manipulation by bad actors. Intelligence officials already warned that Russia had successfully hacked into voting machines across the country.
Id like to see how close paper ballots only were to the polls.
MyMission
(1,849 posts)And we know this. We want to believe that cheating doesn't happen much, or we can overcome it by our voter turnout. Meanwhile, they've turned hacking into a science over the last 20 years.
That's why polling has become less accurate.
Raine
(30,540 posts)Hav
(5,969 posts)but with millions of votes still to be counted and Dems rather choosing to vote early, it might get closer to the poll results.
Bonn1997
(1,675 posts)Regardless, Nate also reminded us that 10% is not 0%. It means that if we had these same circumstances 100 times, Trump would win 10 times.
mahatmakanejeeves
(57,379 posts)COL Mustard
(5,896 posts)hamsterjill
(15,220 posts)We tried to warn people based on what happened in 2000 and in 2016. We were told we were being negative.
Polls mean nothing. Only the end result.
Mike Niendorff
(3,459 posts)(1) Anything based on "land lines" is utterly, utterly obsolete. Disregard it entirely.
(2) Any analysis that presumes no interference in the vote count by state actors (Russia) is also woefully naive.
MDN
littlemissmartypants
(22,629 posts)with the results.
kairos12
(12,851 posts)leftyladyfrommo
(18,868 posts)deck of tarot cards.
COL Mustard
(5,896 posts)Yuk.
leftyladyfrommo
(18,868 posts)Tossing stones and reading chicken guts.
COL Mustard
(5,896 posts)frazzled
(18,402 posts)And just let them try to explain their way out of this one. Unless their explanation is that there was major fraud or foreign interference, there is no explanation other than that polling is just a woo undertaking of mumbo jumbo that makes a shit ton of money for the pollsters.
You might as well buy a lottery ticket.
uponit7771
(90,335 posts)LisaL
(44,973 posts)NT
gollygee
(22,336 posts)Their methodologies don't take into account how to reach people now or how people get information now.
LisaL
(44,973 posts)NT
gollygee
(22,336 posts)I don't think it's people lying.
R0ckyRac00n
(84 posts)10% isn't zero, right? I mean I'm no math major, but... If you don't think you can roll a "1" you never played D&D as a kid! (or as an adult of course!)
leftyladyfrommo
(18,868 posts)section of the population that pollsters can't get to. .and apparently it's the red part.
JHB
(37,158 posts)It seems to have held up pretty well.