I'm not a conspiracy guy, but Trump and the Republicans may be cheating.

[Yavin4]

All night last night, whenever there was a heavy early vote in Biden's favor, miraculously, Trump's same day vote seemed to have always overcome that lead in states like, FLA, GA, NC, TX, and IA.

I don't have the numbers, but it seemed as though Trump was getting near 100% turnout in EVERY rural county out there. And winning them at such margins that successfully overcame the early vote.

Also, voting in these rural areas was seamless. No stories about voting irregularities. Machines not working. Polling places closed. Nothing. Some of these rural counties are getting nearly 100% turnout on election day and not one story about voting difficulties.

Finally, I know that pollsters are taking it in the chops today, but think about this. They've never been "off" like this before, and this is the 2nd time that this has happened. I have been following politics since forever. I've never seen a Charlie Cook, for example, be this wrong before. And the shy Trump voter theory is bullshit since Trump is overtaking Biden in deep red rural counties. What is there to be shy about?

Trump was consistently behind Biden for over a year and a half. Only the Republican leaning polls showed the race this close. When an outlier is more accurate than the consensus, something is wrong.

I think that Trump and the Republicans knowing the volume (and maybe the count) of the early vote is cheating by "creating" votes in rural counties by upping the election day turnout in those counties. For example, let's say that a county has 20,000 people and Trump will win that county 95-5, but only 11,000 people acutally show up on election day. If Trump can artificially boost that turnout to 19,000 giving him another 7,600 votes, no one is going to question it.

Repeat this over several counties and voila, you have overtaken the early vote.

--On Edit--
Trump was impeached over trying to involve Ukraine to help him with the election. So, it has been proven that he's a cheater.

[GoCubsGo]

1. Of course they are cheating.

It's the only way they can win.

[NameAlreadyTaken]

2. Is good. Machines fixed.

Now you have glass of best Russian wodka.

V. Putin

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

3. How would you do that, by stuffing ballot boxes (electronically)?

[Yavin4]

7. Yes.

By creating turnout out of thin air.

[getagrip_already]

9. yes... exactly

But it would take a broad conspiracy. It would take a lot of hands in the pie so to speak. They would have to alter not only totals, but voter rolls.

Even precincts that use electronic voting keep lists of who voted.

Those lists could be audited with simple phone calls. Did you vote? If a sizeable percentage say no, that is some proof.

It would be hard to do without leaving some evidence you can follow.

[Yavin4]

16. We've never had a voter audit in this country.

We cannot know if it would be that difficult to do.

[BComplex]

18. No, it wouldn't. These computers are counting whatever is put into them,

and not necessarily accurately, I might add, depending on the programming.

All they have to do is keep running the same stack of Trump ballots through over and over, and boom! Trump gets all of them.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

21. The number of ballots has to correlate to the number of people who checked in to vote.

[BComplex]

26. Do you live in a rural county?

I do. And it's really easy for a couple of partisan hacks to do pretty much whatever they want to.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

27. No, I live in a large city. But that's where more votes are.

[crimycarny]

35. It happened in Ohio

More voters than the total population in several counties. And all these “error” favored Bush over Kerry.

Read this article about Rove and the GOP’s efforts to use software to change votes in 2012 like they did in 2004. Eye opening and absolutely terrifying how easy it was.

https://washingtonspectator.org/did-an-election-day-lawsuit-stop-karl-roves-vote-rigging-scheme-in-ohio/

According to SourceWatch, Spoonamore, a Republican, is a “recognized expert in the field of data security and digital network architecture” who has worked as a consultant for MasterCard, American Express, Chubb Insurance, Bloomberg, and others.

Spoonamore attested that he found evidence that Rove, in collaboration with IT company owner Mike Connell, had used computer fraud to steal the 2004 election for George W. Bush.

The tabulation system Connell designed allowed for the introduction of a third computer “between computer A and computer B,” Spoonamore had written.

“This centralized collection of all incoming tabulations would make it easy for a single operator, or preprogrammed ‘force balancing computer’ to change the results in any way desired by the team controlling Computer C.”

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

20. Yes, I was trying to figure out how that could be done

without also altering the voter rolls. When you show up to vote an election judge looks up your name on the roster for that precinct and checks you off. Then when the polls close, they tally up the total number of voters that signed in and the total number of ballots that went into the scanners, and they should match. The conspirators would have to make up actual names of fictional voters and enter them in the roster for that precinct, which would be tricky, to say the least, because the roster is generated from a central voter registration database that includes identifying data like addresses, phone numbers and drivers' license numbers. So someone who handles that database would also have to be part of the conspiracy along with the election judges, and the whole plot would probably blow up pretty fast.

[brooklynite]

4. Guess what: you're a conspiracy guy...

[betsuni]

40. But posts about friends conspiring to dine on BBQ beef and pork, salad, chickpeas

and hummus, and fresh (not old!) banana cream pie are totally interesting today.

[AleksS]

5. I've said that's the republicans MO since 2010

I believe they started testing that in WI in 2010 and took it nationwide for Trump in 2016

[blm]

14. That's what I told my husband last night. A Reince Priebus set up.

[llmart]

6. I don't believe all those polls could be so wrong.

Most people don't want to believe that this sort of thing happens in our country. That's the real denial going on.

[Yavin4]

10. Polling and sampling are cornerstones of the scientific method.

They're the reaons why we have life saving medicines. It's how we know that wearing a mask prevents the spread of covid-19.

Yes, there are sampling errors, but when the errors are this large and it happens twice, it deserves a closer inspection.

[uponit7771]

22. +1, pollsters are also in denial about the efficacy of voter suppression.

[blm]

8. Needs an audit.

[Mike 03]

11. Furthermore, remember the GOP sentiment around mid-day to mid-afternoon was

that they were disappointed because the Republican Election Day turnout failed to materialize in the battleground states.

So I have questions too.

There's also the possibility of the silent Trump voter. Michael Steele has been worried about this. He insists it really does exist. He's said all along this would be a tighter election than people thought it would be.

[mtnsnake]

12. Awesome post, well thought out, and worth considering.

Thank you!

[MH1]

13. Well, about that "shy" Trump voter idea - it might be true.

Here is the thing. "You are known by the company you keep".

Many people do NOT want to be known as someone who supports a person with such despicable behavior, that they (hopefully) wouldn't want their kids to see as a role model.

BUT - every time I saw an exit poll flash on the screen that was about "who would be better for the economy", Trump won, and usually by a wide margin. (I can't explain that f*cking stupidity, but there it is.)

In the same polls, Biden typically beat Trump on how he would handle the coronavirus.

In the privacy of the voting booth, which matters more to most people? Most people* feel they can control what happens to them and theirs, as long as they have money. There's your answer. They believe, perhaps not rationally, that they can protect themselves from coronavirus. (if they don't believe coronavirus is a threat at all, they were voting for Trump anyway)

* speaking of the privileged, entitled people who have assets to protect (even if small or just perceived) and don't perceive physical threat from the Trump admin.

This is just a theory, but as I was puzzling this out - trying to avoid the conspiracy approach - this is what I came to.

But, that said, any anti-republican / anti-Trumper living in a heavily red area - if possible should be getting officially certified to be in the polling place in some way, as a worker or a watcher. Learn how the process is supposed to work, and pay close attention to how those "100%" turn out numbers might actually be coming about. If there are no watchers: I believe that yes, in those places some hanky-panky could have taken place. These are people who vote for Trump, after all. We should not assume any corruption is beneath them. But as soon as they are being watched by someone who knows the deal, that stuff will stop.

[BComplex]

15. Bingo! And anyone that suggests that republicans don't cheat ...well, they

are living in another world.

[Beringia]

28. Or they didn't cheat all that much, and Democratic leadership who chose Biden

don't want things to change.


Good drinking game along with results show last night with Katie Halper and Matt Taibi.

[bullwinkle428]

17. Charlie Cook was this wrong in 2016 too. That's why it was so gobsmacking

to see some people holding him up as some kind of oracle who could not possibly be questioned this time around.

[Yavin4]

24. How many other times has he been wrong?

Alan Lichtman was also wrong. As well as Nate Silver and CNN and NBC and The Washington Post and The NY Times and on and on and on.

[uponit7771]

19. ***THIS !!!*** ☝🏾☝🏾☝🏾, Also voter suppression is the only fact based explanation we have now as

... to how in the hell the pollsters have been this wrong for this long weighted towards one party.

[GoCubsGo]

36. Yep. Just look at the unprecedented fuckery involving the USPS and absentee ballots.

That, alone, should tell one all they need to know about cheating.

[uponit7771]

37. +1, pollsters are also in denial about the efficacy of voter suppression. "just vote" doesn't work

... when people CAN'T vote because of fuckery

[GoCubsGo]

39. It's one of the reasons why I believe the Dems did worse than expected with Hispanics.

Not saying we don't need to work harder for the Hispanic vote. I just think things would have been a lot closer without the fuckery. Including in Miami-Dade.

[SweetieD]

23. I believe it.

[Botany]

25. In Ohio we had 3.4 million early votes in the bank from mail in ballots to in person voting and I ..

... have to believe the vast majority of them were blue votes so for Trump and other
gop types to have won and won by such a large margin the in person in election day
voting OH had to have been something like > 75% red.

[llmart]

30. Exactly!

I still am worried about Michigan. Something happened in 2016 and I'm afraid it will happen again this time.

[Hugin]

29. This is the down side to early voting.

It gives the opposition plenty of time to calculate exactly how many votes they need to divine in order to win. Plus, any padding required to negate any mandatory recount.

[essaynnc]

31. I'm sort of in agreement.... things have been fishy for a while

The real question is, did the Republicans accuse the Democrats of doing it? If they did, I'm suspicious, since everything that they accuse us up, they're doing already.
I suppose it would be fairly simple to find precincts with 100% turnout, right? Or more than 100%. If you found one, we can probably find more.

[Yavin4]

32. You don't always need 100%

It could be any number, 80%, 70%, or even 50%. So long as it gives you a number that fits with the overall pattern.

[ecstatic]

33. He's projected his intentions to cheat since last October

I've had concerns all along that we continue to allow this guy to use the same playbook over and over again and box ourselves into a corner.

[superpatriotman]

38. Miami-Dade

He gained 200k votes there?

Bullshit!

[Botany]

42. Here is where Trump gains votes

[ScratchCat]

41. Do you know when I started getting worried?

When everyone(Republicans, DHS, Wray, etc..) started trying to convince people that the election had integrity and would be safe and votes would be counted accurately. This is post-2016 backwards univers, folks, so you have to wonder if "opposite world" is going to strike again. Its almost like it was a preemptive strike against claims by Democrats that something is fishy. Many of us just can't buy that Trump added millions of new voters and its not that hard to create voters/votes in rural areas.