Collins didn't lead in one poll

[octoberlib]

Link to tweet

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[Dream Girl]

1. Helped by spoilers

[dsc]

15. ah no

Collins had to get 50% to win so no spoilers

[PTWB]

20. No. Maine has ranked choice.

[riversedge]

2. Since the polls were so consistant in showing Collins before, I am really saddened to

hear that Collins won.

[Laelth]

3. Something stinks to high heaven. n/t

-Laelth

[Tommymac]

4. Susan Collins. nt

[Blue Owl]

5. Do I detect a faint whiff of vote flipping in Maine?

[LenaBaby61]

8. Something stinks to high heaven.

This 👆🏻👆🏻

[Jarqui]

22. +1000

[rockfordfile]

42. I agree

[smirkymonkey]

45. Yes, indeed.

I am not buying this for a second.

[Tribetime]

6. All these polls can't be wrong

..investigate

[unitedwethrive]

7. This doesn't jive with the theory that people were afraid to say they supported Trump.

Why were the polls wrong in so many senate races? And all in the same direction? If it was a coordinated effort to lie to pollsters, it would have been discovered on social media...there are Dems imbedded in the right wing sites all the time (that is how we know so much about Qanon). There is no way it just "happened" spontaneously all over the country, except in the strong red or blue states.

[Azathoth]

17. I don't think it was coordinated

"Cancel culture" has repercussions. People are afraid to admit out loud what they really think.

In my experience this election, most Biden voters were pretty open about supporting Biden if you asked them. The surprises came from quiet people who gave the impression of being apolitical or Biden-leaning and who eventually admitted they were going for Trump.

[JonLP24]

33. Cancel culture is made up BS by conservatives

If Roseanne loses her job because she told a racist joke about Susan Rice that is her problem.

[JonLP24]

36. Virtue signaling is another RW term

JK Rowling is a transphobes who quadrupled down and as far as I know she is not canceled. She actually has more of a platform than regular people. If people don't want to read their books that is their right. I wish we canceled Donald Trump a long time ago. Hopefully we will.

[Azathoth]

37. And she would say "transphobe" is a SJW term

So dismissing anything you don't like as "RW" doesn't really get you anywhere.

Cancelling people leads to self-censorship leads to hidden resentments leads to sudden surprise revolts.

[FBaggins]

18. It doesn't have to be liars or "shy" voters

(Though I've had a concern of "shy" polling effects back to the "shy Tories&quot

Polling is based on the assumption that if you contact a large enough random sample of people, they will be representative of the larger population. But too few even answer the call these days.

In the 90s they might call 3,000 random people to get 1,000 responses - and those 1,000 had a pretty good chance of being representative of the five million people who lived in the state. But if you have to call 100,000 random people in order to get 1,000 responses - how do you know that the 1,000 who were willing to speak to you even represent the 99,000 who didn't want to talk to you (let alone the five million)?

[FBaggins]

9. Has anyone even called the race?

Surprising to see a concession. There must be a site showing more than the 75% reporting that I can see... or Gideon knows where those votes are.

As for the polls - Look back at her prior elections and you'll see a pretty solid record of outperforming the polling average by several points. There's a reason that the race never moved left of "tossup".

[Azathoth]

10. The polling industry is done

Washington Post has Biden up 16 points in Wisconsin a week ago.

These aren't a handful of random mistakes.

[Ponietz]

12. Or else the greatest fraud in history has been perpetrated

I’m for waiting and seeing before deciding.

[Jarqui]

23. I think this is far more likely

Trump and the GOP are crooks who have been stealing elections my whole life.

[uponit7771]

24. +1, voter suppression works and pollsters minimize its efficacy

[keepthemhonestO]

11. it's important to cheat

to hold power. Pretty sure they cheated with these easily hackable voting machines, they purposely left them open and unsecure. They refused to pass any legislation to secure and improve voting systems.

[Binkie The Clown]

13. Pollsters need to go back to school and learn how to count.

They're obviously doing something very wrong.

[Hoyt]

19. Yeah, like believing what people tell them and failing to draw representative samples.

I get this environment is tough, but still.

[uponit7771]

25. For 20 years? No, somethings wrong. No other advanced country has polls that tilt consistently

... to one party for this long.

Somethings wrong, voter suppression is the unaccounted for variant.

[keepthemhonestO]

26. agreed 20 years now

The "bush shy voters" and now the trump shy voters? nope I call fraud and election hacking. That's why the repubs didn't pass election security for the machines or at all!

[BusyBeingBest]

14. How stupid of us, to think Gideon might win.

Smells like last week's chicken gizzards.

[ElementaryPenguin]

16. That race was f*cking hacked!!

[jayfish]

28. Wouldn't it Have Been A Top-Down hack?

Meaning Stunk would have won Maine? Funny that as I'm typing this I'm hearing that Frump will get an EC vote rom Maine.

[andym]

21. Two factors: Trump voters not willing to participate in polls

and of those that do, more are willing to lie.

[keepthemhonestO]

29. They used to say that about

Bush supporters and I always knew that was bologna. Bush supporters and trump supporters are not shy.

Why don't republicans want to pass election security measures? The purposely leave to back doors open on election systems when they could have better security? Why? think about it?

[andym]

41. These voters are not literally shy, they're the kind of folks who basically say "MYOB"

"Mind Your Own Business" and get off your lawn. Basically very selfish types, which fits a certain GOP stereotype. The effect is the same-- bad polling data if there are too many of them.

[joshcryer]

44. No they're the type to simply lie on a poll.

[apnu]

27. Rs like to ratfuck polls

No poll can be trusted if 10% of the respondents are fucking around with the pollster. And fuck around Rs will do. They think that shit is funny. Watching us wail and gnash our teeth is the best entertainment they've had all year.

Yes enough Republicans are that fucking petty and basic.

[LAS14]

30. I think the utter uselessness of the polls is hitting me harder than not taking..

... the senate. This poll thing is disorienting me in some sort of profound way.

[BusyBeingBest]

31. Because you are probably a straightforward person

and when you are asked a question you answer honestly--it wouldn't occur to you to do otherwise. I don't think R's operate that way.

[LAS14]

38. I'm afraid you are probably right. nt

[Maraya1969]

32. These senate races need to be investigated.

I am sooooooooo tired of these fucking reTHUGlican stealing elections!

[wishstar]

34. But all those polls had nearly 10% or more undecided just like many Trump/Biden polls

Quite a few polls even in the past week for several other candidates had such a huge number of undecided/uncommitteds that they seemed worthless to me.

[LAS14]

39. Thanks for pointing that out. I didn't notice it, in part, I'm sure, because...

... there had been so much talk for weeks about "hardly any undecided" and "it's baked in," etc. Any idea why that was such a common theme?

tia
las

[Baltimike]

40. Collins is married to a RUSSIAN ally. nt

[Hermit-The-Prog]

43. It looks like typical deviation between polls and votes is 5 to 7 in favor of GOP. consistently.

Dems seem to have to be favored by 7% or more in polls just to squeak out a close win.

[budkin]

46. Reminds me of Gillum / Desantis in 2018

When DeSantis didn’t lead in a single poll.