Remaining votes in PA

[helpisontheway]

Link to tweet

?s=20

[Bleacher Creature]

1. That would be the ballgame.

[Dem2]

2. Gap has shrunk from 700k to 392k

Edit 392k

[abjr]

3. Confused

Was just watching the guardian’s and website. Remaining % drop from 36 to 16 and count from 3.2m to 1.1m and Trump’s 400K margin hardly budged. Why are people so confident?

[Dem2]

6. Errors in guesses on "remaining votes" are common

They were simply correcting an earlier error based likely on info provided by PA.

[BumRushDaShow]

4. And as a reminder, he won PA by 44,000 votes in 2016

so that is a point of reference.

ETA - just heard on my local news radio station that so far, they have counted 186,000 mail-in ballots here in Philly with Biden getting about 78% of those.

[mr_lebowski]

5. Here's another good one ...

Link to tweet

Jonathan Martin
@jmartNYT
·
37m
Pennsylvania Democrats are very confident that the votes are there for Biden to prevail when every vote is counted.

One Democrat said the margin could be about 100K, another one projects it closer to 70-80K.
Jonathan Martin
@jmartNYT
·
10m
They view it as a slow-motion version of MI and WI, the mail ballots are there in the metros and just a matter of counting

[helpisontheway]

7. Missed that one..Thank you! Nt

[Buckeye_Democrat]

8. This is like slow-motion torture of Trumpers.

Heh heh.

[mr_lebowski]

9. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch

[rownesheck]

10. I've been watching the Google election

results and it updates every 2 minutes. It's like watching a really slow horse race. I hope Joe likes the slop. I heard his father was a mudda. And his mudda was a mudda.

[fishwax]

11. If you look at the counties that are fully counted, trump didn't make big gains in any of them

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-president.html

There are 29 counties that are fully reported. Of the counties in that list that Trump won, he is usually within a point or two of his 2016 margins this time around. In Snyder County, for instance, he was +46.8 in 2016 and +47 this year. So he gained a very little. In a few of them he lost a bit. His biggest improvement was in Elk County, which went from +42.4 to +45. But that was only one of a handful of counties where he moved the needle on his margin more than two points. So it looks like, when it comes to improving his share of the vote in a given county, 3 points is probably his ceiling.

The same isn't true for Biden, who cut into Trump's margins by more than three points in a couple of counties near Scranton (Wayne, which Trump won by 38.5 in 2016 and 34 this time around; and Pike, which Trump won by 25.9 in 2016 and 19 this time), and a couple other scattered counties. And Biden extended Clinton's margins in Lackawanna (home of Scranton) 3.4 to 8 and Dauphin (Harrisburg) 2.9 to 8.

The point here is that it seems unlikely that, once all the votes are counted, there will be many counties where trump's margin is much larger than it was in 2016. There may, on the other hand, be a handful of places where Biden can build on Clinton's lead.

Now, look at the margins in the counties that have yet to report. In almost all of them, Trump is running double digits ahead of where he was in 2016. So that would seem to suggest that, even in the heavily republican counties, the remaining votes are going to break very heavily for Biden, bringing those margins back in line with trump's 2016 numbers. And that's without even considering the biggest pinatas still available in Philadelphia County (where Joe is 10 points behind 2016) and Allegheny (3.5 points behind), as well as Bucks (5 points) and so on.

Biden is going to win Pennsylvania. The raw vote count looks very discouraging, but the ballots being counted now are going to favor him to an astonishing degree.

[Dem2]

12. Down to 330k

Lead was as high at 15%, it's now down to 5.5% and falling...